This is a stealth-change that was not included in the patch notes. For some reason, the penalty for Coastline provinces like the Carribean islands is now equal to that of Coastal Desert such as Ifni. So this is up from +10% to +25%, a sizeable amount. I feel like this is more likely a bug than a specific change, but I think it is worth mentioning here regardless. I was going to play a tall exodus game as Navarra where I hold only the Carribean region but probably won't until this issue is fixed or confirmed as legitimate.