Perhaps I am misunderstanding something, but I thought that this was a solved problem. The wiki says
I'm having a bit of trouble making sense of your graphs at this time at night, so I can't tell if what you've found agrees or disagrees with this. I'm also curious about how the impact on the building speed for Military factories plays a role in your calculations, since that's really what this is all about: "How can I get as many Military Factories as possible?"
Infrastructure provides diminishing returns to build times. Changing a province's infrastructure from 0 to 1 would require 5 military factories or 3 civilian factories to break even, 1 to 2 is 6 military or 4 civilian, all the way up to 9 to 10 which requires 16 military or 11 civilian.
I'm having a bit of trouble making sense of your graphs at this time at night, so I can't tell if what you've found agrees or disagrees with this. I'm also curious about how the impact on the building speed for Military factories plays a role in your calculations, since that's really what this is all about: "How can I get as many Military Factories as possible?"