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Aldahen

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The Chinese Focus trees have in the shared part a focus called Integrate Tibet.
Picking this will give Tibet an event called China Demands Subjugation.

Now, what is the probability for Tibet to accept this and what factors influence that probability?

(on a more general note, is there way to get to know stuff like this from somewhere. E.g. game files?)
 

Zwirbaum

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The Chinese Focus trees have in the shared part a focus called Integrate Tibet.
Picking this will give Tibet an event called China Demands Subjugation.

Now, what is the probability for Tibet to accept this and what factors influence that probability?

(on a more general note, is there way to get to know stuff like this from somewhere. E.g. game files?)

Yes. Check the game-files and look for this event - and then check ai_will_do under each option or something like that. It will tell you the chance (weight) for AI to pick this option. If there are no such 'ai_will_do' it means that all options have the same weight/chance.
 

Officer Crabtree

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In this case the odds of refusal are 40% (10% base and 30% added chance for TIB tag). You can find this in the events folder of HOI4, just go the file of WTT_China and look for the puppet acceptance event (all puppet options (warlords / Tibet / Japan) have the same event)
 

Aldahen

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Thanks for the answers. I'll dig around there next time.
Interesting that the political or power situation doesn't affect the result.
 

fred_84

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In this case the odds of refusal are 40% (10% base and 30% added chance for TIB tag). You can find this in the events folder of HOI4, just go the file of WTT_China and look for the puppet acceptance event (all puppet options (warlords / Tibet / Japan) have the same event)
sorry to ressurect this post, but I just tried.
I saved my game just before finishing the focus. Tibet has a 100 opinion of me.
Out of 20+ reloads, Tibet never accepted.

Are we sure that those odds are correct?
 

Dlin369

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sorry to ressurect this post, but I just tried.
I saved my game just before finishing the focus. Tibet has a 100 opinion of me.
Out of 20+ reloads, Tibet never accepted.

Are we sure that those odds are correct?

Apparantly the way random seeding works changed relatively recently. It’s now based off In-game time, so if you want a different outcome you have to change the date it fires. That is, load to before the day you started the focus and then start it a day later then previous
 
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