-- 1849 to 1850 --
January 1849: Population: 1,521,000; Literacy: 26%; Exports: $28 per day; Cash Reserve: $2760.
Now that we are making a monthly surplus of over $100, the clamour to spend money is growing ever louder in cabinet meetings. No one but me seems to appreciate the virtues of fiscal prudence, or that the sight of a healthy and growing cash reserve is a most beautiful thing, at least to a Finance Mnister. So, worn down by my colleagues arguments, I agree to send a mission to Buenos Aires for the sum of $292. It is, after all, high time that we reciprocated for all the missions of goodwill that they have sent us over the years, which have ensured cordial relations. And no sooner has our mission returned, than another one arrives from Argentina, improving relations even further.
While this expenditure has appeased the Foreign Ministry, the War Ministry is still fretting. Fretting and plotting. Before I realize what has happened (I really must pay my spies better) plans are well under way to found a military academy in Santiago. I am faced with the bill, for $1000, and am told in no uncertain terms that if we do not go ahead now, our international standing will suffer. All our neighbours have military academies, and it is only fitting that as the most respected country in South America we should have one as well. Gritting my teeth, I authorize the payment.
On the economic front, progess continues slow but steady. Research into mechanical production is completed, and Pitt's threshing machine is introduced onto our farms soon afterwards. Our academics at the University of Santiago take up the study of the works of Malthus next.
Political Change and Political Instability
On 2nd May 1849 an election campaign is called. Once again, the Liberals and Conservatives are running neck to neck, and there is really no way of knowing which way the election will go.
I have decided to do what I can to help the Liberals to win, since I believe that their policies are helpful in attracting immigrants, and immigration, by raising production and taxes, stimulates long-term growth.
And yet, what if the Conservatives win? This is a matter much discussed in Liberal circles of late, and there is now a general consensus that the franchise should be extended beyond the landowning classes, and be subject simply to a tax qualification: everyone paying income or property taxes above a certain threshold should be eligible to vote. This will change the political landscape in no small way - it empowers the growing merchant classes, and thus dilutes the power of the old landowning elite. Although this legislation will be passed before the next election, it will be some years before the new voters' rolls can be drawn up, and so the change will have no impact on the forthcoming election. The necessary legislation is passed through both Chambers of Parliament in November of 1849. Enacting it will cost over $1500, reducing cash reserved to $1300.
As is to be expected, the Conservatives are absolutely furious at this change. They know that the soon-to-be-enfranchised merchant classes are no supporters of theirs, and quite rightly see their support dwindling away over time. "The purpose of this legislation is to ensure a perpetual Liberal majority," shouts the angry leader of the Conservatives during a debate in the Legislature. He is quite right. That is exactly what this legislation is meant to do, and everyone knows it. Worst of all for the Conservatives is the knowledge that even if they do gain power in February, they will not be able to reverse this legislation without incurring a huge degree of enmity among some quite influential people: in a country with our long tradition of democracy, unique and exemplary in South America, it would sit extremely badly to attempt to reduce the franchise. They know this, and they are very angry.
But the anger of the Conservatives cannot galvanize them any more support at the election: on February 2nd 1850, the Liberals are re-elected for a third consecutive term of office.
"We are becoming a permanent opposition," grumbles an elderly and much respected Conservative senator, "and worst of all, an irrelevance!" But not all voices are as sane as his. "We must do something," the angry young Conservatives are heard to mutter, and, more ominously "We much show these damned Liberals that they have gome to far! We must teach them a lesson!"
"Oh, all idle talk and hot air," says the Interior Minister when I voice my concerns to him. "It will soon blow over. Even the Conservatives must accept that times are changing, and we must move with the times."
The fact that we are dealing with more than idle talk is brought violently home to us on March 1st - a mere month after the election. The Interior Minister has been assassinated! Shot dead in the street, in Santiago, outside his Ministry. It is the Interior Minister who had overseen the legislation extending the franchise and guided it through Parliament.
The entire government is in a state of shock. This is the first political assassination we have had in over thirty years - since the days of civil turmoil that followed our independence from Spain.
"We will find the culprit," vows the Police Minister. No, I think to myself, you will not find the culprit, though you may find the man who pulled the trigger. I do not know who the culprit is, but I know where to find him. He is sitting in the Conservative Club in Santiago, where many members are making no attempt to disguise their glee at this disgraceful act. Worst of all, some young hotheads are now toasting the assassin as a great national hero, and a saviour of Chile. That is what comes from a privileged upbringing coupled with not much brains and too much money, I think to myself.
The worst part of it is that the Liberal Party, despite its long hold on power and extension of the frachise, really has little support throughout the country at large. The ordinary people, the farmers, the mineworkers, the labourers in the small local manufactures all see the the Liberals as a party that represents the interests of the rich. And I must confess there is some justice in this. The Liberals are opposed to high taxes. They are also opposed to government sponsored social programmes - people must be taught self-reliance, they proclaim - and, if the worst comes to the worst, there are always the church foundations or private philanthropy to fall back on. These are not opinions that endear one to the poor.
Immigration is also not popular, and the Liberals are favourable towards immigrants. Most immigrants settle in the provinces of La Serena and Valparaiso, and there is a saying among the miners of La Serena that the immigrant is the mine-owner's best friend. Thus, they see immigrants not as people who will help to produce more output, buy more goods and services and pay more taxes, but simply as competitors for their jobs, people whose arrival helps to keep wages down. And so militancy is rising among the poor, but most particularly in these two provinces. After a cabinet discussion we decide to station troops in each of these provinces. Perhaps the presence of soldiers will calm the situation. For the rest, we can only hope that the present instability will pass, and political life will resume its normal dull tenor.
