Chile 1836-1900: The Hard Realities of Poverty and Democracy

[Rensslaer]

Or you could use photobucket.com -- same stuff. But yes, you may need to hand-type the image with brackets and all. Or if you use photobucket (or probably the others) you can cut and paste the URL into your story text.

In any case, looking forward to seeing this continue, if you can! Great job so far!

Rensslaer

 

[Agenor]

-- 1840 Part 2 --

Something must be done to avert the terrible disaster that a Liberal government would bring to this country. After intensive discussion with El Presidente and the cabinet, we decide that the best course is to offer the Liberals a deal.

There is one person in Chilean politics of whom I am seriously frightened. His name is Senator Don Alfonso de Guzman. He is the scion of one of Chile's leading families, well educated, much travelled and highly intelligent. He is a man of considerable character, with a great leonine head of white hair. The handle of his walking cane is in the form of a large silver lion's head, which looks uncannily like him, I have observed. He wears clothes tailored so immaculately that I am sure they were not made in Chile. In any room he is a presence: the person to whom most attention is given, to whom others tend to gravitate. He is the leader of the Liberal Party, and he is the man we have to convince.

The deal on offer is the following. We shall give in to long-standing Liberal demands for political reform, in return for some election advantages. Specifically, we shall allow a free press and the establishment of non-socialist trade unions. Apparently some of the more radical Liberals had been arguing that all trade unions should be allowed, but really, no conservative government anywhere in the world would ever countenance such a change. Most countries do not allow any trade unions at all and of the three major countries that do, Britain, France and the United States, none of them allow all trade unions, only non-socialist ones. Even so, this is a change some Conservatives are going to find hard to live with.

In return for these concessions, the Liberals will not object too much if we use certain tried and tested tactics during our campaign, to help arguments go our way. The heckling of speakers, the disruption of meetings, the bribing of voters with alcohol, in short, the standard stuff of healthy democratic politics.

In addition, I must convince Don Alfonso that a Liberal government would be a disaster under present circumstances. I show him the results of my fiscal simulation excercise, that with zero tariff income and taxes capped at 50%, we would have a deficit of $49 per month, or around $600 per year.

"Are you saying, Minister," Don Alfonso de Guzman says to me, "that Chile would go bankrupt under a Liberal government?"

I consider my answer. Don Alfonso is watching me carefully. "No, Senator," I reply, "I do not believe so. However, I think that what reserves we have would be seriously depleted. Indeed, if the present government were use those reserves to enact the reforms we are discussing today, we would probably have to go into debt. The real danger as I see it lies in two consecutive terms of Liberal government. We are already in a situation today where we could not meet our obligations under a Liberal fiscal regime, and it is very hard to see where any economies can be made, short of disbanding one of our regiments."

El Presidente flinches slightly when I say this, and a look of pain comes into the Senator's eyes. They are both staunchly pro-military men.

"Of course," I hasten to add, "it would be quite unthinkable to do this. I merely use it as an illustration of how serious the situation is. At the end of a first term of Liberal government, our reserves would be almost depleted, even if we have by some miracle avoided going into debt. But at the start of a second term of Liberal government we would have no cushion of reserves left at all, so we would certainly be forced to raise loans. This in turn would make the situation even worse, since we now have to pay interest on those loans, so our daily, and monthly, deficit becomes even larger. And as the debt rises, so do interest payments, causing the daily deficit to expand over time. In short, we will be caught in a vicious spiral into bankruptcy."

"It may of course be said that in this case both the Liberals and Conservatives would have a common interest in seeing the Conservatives regain power at this point, so that we have a Liberal term of office followed by a Conservative one. But," I sigh emphatically, "can we ever really be sure of the way the landowning classes will vote?"

Senator de Guzman is smiling at me warily, since I have just pre-empted one of his arguments. He is thinking that he shall have to watch me carefully if he comes to power. I return his gaze frankly. With such clever people it is best to be honest, unless one is hatching a truly diabolical plan that is absolutely certain of success, and regrettably I have no diabolical plan to keep him and his party out of power.

"Yes," he concedes, "one can never be quite sure of how the landowners will vote, which is one reason for extending the franchise." He sees the look of horror on my face (El Presidente has gone quite pale at the prospect of the lower orders voting) and adds smoothly, "when we have the necessary funds, of course, and conditions are right." What a sly old fox he is.

The meeting ends in agreement. A free press and non-socialist trade unions are to be allowed in our country. On the 9th March these changes to the law are officially gazetted. The reforms cost us almost $1200 to enact, and our reserve falls from $2500 to around $1330.

The subsequent rallies went much as planned. In January potectionist arguments prevailed in the state of Valdivia (the Liberals favour free trade) and the tax reform rallies in Santiago in April also went our way. Otherwise things went on much as usual. By 1st July 1840 the population of our country stood at 1.2 million people, we continued to run a modest daily surplus, and on the eve of the election we had increased our reserves to $1523. Then a day I shall never forget dawned, August 2nd, 1840.

A Black Day

Alack the day! Pour ashes on the nead of this unlucky nation, and clothe her in sackcloth, for her future is undone! The Liberal Party has won the election. I am in a state of complete shock. None of the election debates appear to have had any effect. And the political reforms we undertook have depleted our reserves to the point where I do not see how we can meet existing expenditures for any length or time, nor do I see where economies can be made. I am in despair. My hands are trembling so much I cannot continue to write this. May God have mercy on my poor country.

 

[stnylan]

Not good. Definitely not good, given the rather stringent rules you are playing by.

 

[Agenor]

-- 1841 --

Making Hard Choices

In the months that followed the (in my opinion) disasterous victory of the Liberal Party, no changes in economic policy were undertaken. Instead, our reserves gradually melted away as we ran a deficit. But what was surprising was that this was less than what I had calculated: we lost around $32 per month, rather than the $49 I had previously estimated. The source of the difference was soon clear. Although they were set very low, some tariffs were still in place, and these generated an income of around 70c per day. But even so, we were gradually becoming poorer, and the question of what was to be done was becoming ever more urgent. I am a very prudent Finance Minister, and believe a country should never be left entirely without resources. You never know what disasters may be lurking around the corner. So the deficit had to be eliminated somehow, but how?

Reducing expenditure on the police and justice system was not an option. It would be a false saving, since it would be offset by a reduction in revenues as crime and corruption rose. And preyed on by robbers and bandits, the population would become increasingly unhappy and militant. So reducing crime fighting was out.

Next to consider was military expenditure. We could disband one of our regiments, preferably the cavalry, which is expensive to maintain. The opposition this suggestion aroused was predictable, and I must confess I only argued for it half-heartedly. I am well aware of how useful cavalry can be in dealing with rebels, particularly in a mountainous country like Chile, where mobility is always a problem. Furthermore, it was clear to me that if we disbanded a regiment, we would never be able to replace it. The cost of raising the regiment, of providing it with guns, wine and canned food, would cost the better part of $2000, an impossible sum to raise in the foreseeable future.

This left us with the final option, which I had been dreading: reducing expenditure on education. And this, with the greatest of reluctance I consented to do, initially to 50% of the total, which would give us zero increase in literacy. But fortunately matters were not so bleak: the lower taxes and tariffs meant that it was possible to reduce army maintenance by 50c p.d., and this saving was then spent on education. This gave us a total of $1.7 p.d. for education, which had the budget at 71% efficiency, generating 0.35 research points per month, and allowing literacy to rise gradually. So, as the figure below shows, the budget is roughly in balance, at the cost of reduced investment in education. Yes, we are living well in the present in Chile under the Liberals, but at the expense, I fear, of the future.

On Chilean Mining

Our scholars completed their research into idealism last year, and at the time I decided we should research mechanized mining next. Mining is important to our country, and yet the state of the industry is quite backward and not helped by the incompetence of both government and private investors. The English naturalist Mr Charles Darwin commented on this in his travel accounts. He visited Chile a few years ago, in 1835, as part of his journey around South America in the ship Beagle :

"These mines are of copper, and the ore is all shipped to Swansea, to be smelted. Hence the mines have an aspect singularly quiet, as compared to those in England: here no smoke, furnaces, or great steam-engines, disturb the solitude of the surrounding mountains."

Elsewhere he notes that "A few improvements have likewise been introduced in some of the simple machinery; but even to the present day, water is removed from some mines by men carrying it up the shaft in leathern bags!

"The labouring men work very hard. They have little time allowed for their meals, and during summer and winter they begin when it is light, and leave off at dark. They are paid one pound sterling a month, and their food is given them: this for breakfast consists of sixteen figs and two small loaves of bread; for dinner, boiled beans; for supper, broken roasted wheat grain. They scarcely ever taste meat; as, with the twelve pounds per annum, they have to clothe themselves and support their families. The miners who work in the mine itself have twenty-five shillings per month, and are allowed a little charqui. But these men come down from their bleak habitations only once in every fortnight or three weeks."

The following illustration of a Chilean miner comes from Mr Darwin's account of his travels:

Note the oil lamp that he carries, attached to a long stave with a pointed end so it can be struck into the ground.

Other Developments

The one source of really good news to come our way was due to the excellent scholars at Santiago College. It appears, on publication of their work in Europe, that they produced ground-breaking work on Neo-Kantian idealism, and our prestige has gone up significantly as a result:

We are now 28th in the League Table of Nations, even ahead of Argentina, in 29th place. My old Presidente would have been so proud. We are now the most respected country in South America, which is just as it should be.

 

[stnylan]

Mmm, so the balancing act is holding for now. But for how long? A deletrious event and it could all go up in smoke.

 

[unmerged(37096)]

Agenor,

Great to see you back, and good job on getting the budget balanced (something I've never been very good at)

 

[unmerged(27576)]

what excatly is p.d. and c?

 

[Agenor]

stnylan: That's right, alas. All I need is a major workers' strike or farmers demanding compensation for a bad harvest and my precious reserve is up in smoke. That or people are jolly unhappy.

Quirinus: Thanks, it's good to be back!

deltren: p.d. is my abbreviation for per day, c = cents. I guess I shouldn't be so lazy and should write them out in full.

 

[Agenor]

-- 1842 to 1845 --

At the beginnig of 1842 Chile was in the following position:
Exports: $13 - $14 per day (we are still the paupers of South America);
Population: 1,251,000
Literacy: 18.8%
Cash Reserve: $1590.

My one worry is education: I would be much happier if the budget were higher, but at least we are slowly gaining research points. We are, to be honest, a poor and technologically backward country. The following picture is of Santiago de Chile, the capital, in the early nineteenth century. It has a spectacular location at the foothills of the Andes:

Although the wealthier people in Santiago do look to Europe for their fashions, the clothing of the average Chilean shows little change since the eighteenth century, as a drawing from the mid-1830s shows:

In September research on mechanized mining is completed, and we begin research on Freedom of Trade, which should increase or tax and tariff efficiency (although our costs will rise as well).

I also realize that we are running a very small surplus, around $13 per month, so that our cash reserve is slowly rising. Now, having pleaded dire distress if the Liberals should come to power, it hardly enhances my credibility to have cash balances rises, so I decide that the surplus must be invested in education. So I increase spending on education to $2 per day. This has us working at 83% efficiency, and gives us 0.41 research points per month.

A problem is brought to my attention: we do not have any clippers, thus making it impossible to transport produce from our province on Tierra del Fuego to the mainland. I place an order for four clippers, which arrive the following month. This increases or exports by over $1 per day, and tax income rises slightly. I really could kick myself for not having done this before.

February 1843: Exports, $15 per day, cash reserves, $1700. On the whole the Liberal era is not the complete disaster I had thought it would be.

As the year progresses I realize we are still making a small surplus, so I decide to set the education budget at its maximum level. To my surprise, I find that the budget continues to balance:

This is a source of both delight and worry to me. How could I have got my predictions so wrong? Liberal colleagues in Cabinet are beginning to look increasingly smug whenever I lecture them on the need for fiscal prudence. "Pull the other one," they seem to be thinking to themselves. Even the President cannot resist a gently jibe:

"You see, Minister," he says to me, "your worries about our government were unfounded. You should not be so pessimistic."

"Pessimism is a very good trait in a Finance Minister," I weakly retort, but I am on the defensive. I really must find out what is going on, and decide to set off on a tour of the provinces.

It is when I arrive in the state of Valdivia that the situation becomes clearer. For some time we have had a small amount of immigration, especially to Valparaiso State, but also to Santiago, though not in any significant numbers, perhaps a few hundred a month. These immigrants are rapidly assimilated into the general population, and, since the population of these states is already quite large, have no appreciable impact on production. But in the Southern provinces it is different, as the Governor of Vadivia assures me. Here, the small numbers of immigrants from Germany and Finland and other countries have made a significant difference to output, since provinces that previously had only rather inefficient native Patagonian farmers now also have European farmers who have adopted the South Andean culture. Thus, both our exports and tax revenues have gone up because of this.

February 1844: Exports: $16 per day, Population: 1,327,000, Literacy: 20.5%, Cash Reserve: $1700.

I am wondering whether having the Liberals in power might yet turn out to be a good thing for this country. The increase in immigration, small as it is, has brought some real benefits, especially to our Southern provinces. Certainly they are far more sympathetic to immigrants than the Conservatives, being pluralistic and favouring limited citizenship:

On August 2nd 1844 an election campaign is announced. I decide to adopt a position of strict neutrality. When I learn that laissez faire arguments have prevailed among the people of Valdivia, I am not displeased. Arguments also arise about defence, but are inconclusive since both parties are pro-military.

February 1845: Exports: $16 per day, Population: 1,370,000, Literacy: 21.7%, Cash Reserves: $1810.

On May 2nd the election results are announced:

Another term of the Liberals. Let us hope immigration increases further.

 

[stnylan]

I think the Finance Minister is in danger of becoming a liberal himself if this good fortune continues.

 

[Agenor]

I suspect you are right.

 

[unmerged(27576)]

You never enacted the social reforms did you? budget shows zero at 50%... Or was that to the liberals if the conserves won... isee!

Lol I actually didn't expect any immigrants to make a difference but i guess for such a small nation they do. At Least when I play some nations and strive for reforms and democracy I end up with not enough immigrants than democracy was worth

keep the updates comming, very interesting!

 

[Jestor]

A fascinating AAR that I'll be sure to follow

 

[Henry v. Keiper]

This AAR has helped me with my gameplay. I am now more money-wise and realize how to make a profit with smaller nations. :rofl:

 

[Agenor]

deltren: I didn't expect immigration would make a difference at this early stage either, and it only does in the provinces that have Patagonian culture. In the other provinces the immigrants just merge with the South Andean culture pops.

Jestor: Thanks.

Henry: Good to know this AAR has actually been useful to somebody!

 

[Agenor]

Anyway, time to eliminate some more exploits.

Seizing Colonial Claims in Wartime

Colonial claims may only be occupied in wartime if they are directly adjacent to land that you already held, or to a claim that you already held before the war began.

This eliminates a major exploit whereby one can effortlessly seize almost entire colonies, since the AI makes no attempt to protect claims or take them back. It does, however, still allow some leeway to grab claims.

Selling Colonial Claims

A colonial claim may not be sold for more than $18,000, roughly 3 times what it cost to build. If the claim is exchanged for money plus another claim, tech or land, the maximum price must be reduced by $5,000 for each tech, land or claim exchanged. This reduces the exploit whereby a small country can make enough money to industrialize or build a model welfare state by selling a single claim to Britain.

Promotion of Clerks and Craftsmen

The largest pop in any province must be left in the RGO. It may not be converted into any other kind of pop.

Where a province contains more than two pops, the smallest national culture pop must be the first to be converted into clerks or craftsmen.

This avoids the completely unhistorical situation whereby you can dramatically increase your RPs by having 75,000 clerks in a factory and 5,000 farmers in the fields. It may still be possible to have very large clerk pops in some capital-city provinces in Europe where you have two very large pops of equal size, but such provinces are exceptional, and certainly don't occur in Chile.

There, now that should make life a bit tougher.

 

[Agenor]

1846 to 1848

Population: 1,406,000; Exports: $18 per day; Literacy: 22%; Cash Reserves: $1968.

Immigrants are contining to arrive in the Southern provinces of Chile, where their modern farming techniques are providing a useful boost to local output. Most recently immigrants have arrived in the province of Magdalena. On the whole, I am quite pleased I did not obstruct the Liberals during the last election.

March 1846: Research into Introspectionism has been completed, and we begin research on the uses of a practical steam engine.

October 1846: I think I may have underestimated our Foreign Minister. He has actually brought off a diplomatic coup, by arranging a diplomatic conference in our capital. Good relations with Argentina, Bolivia and Peru are nurtured and our intenational prestige rises, bolstering our place as the most respected nation in South America. And best of all: it doesn't cost the Finance Ministry a single penny!

Our budget continues to balance, and on average we are making a very modest surplus of around $20 per month:

August 1847: Research into practical steam engines is completed, and research into mechanical production begins.

We are Rich! RICH!!

I can hardly believe it. The whole city is buzzing with the news. A huge vein of silver has been found in the province of La Serena. This is the very best news a Finance Minister can ever receive, and, in the months that follow the scope of our good fortune becomes clear to me. The income of La Serena province has risen by almost $10 per day, and our total exports have risen from $18 to $27 per day. For the first time since 1836 our tax revenues actually exceed our expenditures, and we are no longer dependent on tariff income. Our monthly surplus rises from about $20 to $100:

Chile has of course always had rich silver deposits, but most of them were worked out during the colonial period. Indeed, one of the landmarks of our capital is the Old Mint, later to be used as the Presidential Palace, that was built by the Spaniards during the colonial era to mint the silver mined in Chile:

There is of course a downside to all this newfound affluence. Now that we have some money, the Cabinet wants to spend it. A particularly vocal member is the War Ministry. The War Ministry used to be called the Defence Ministry, but they have taken the former name in imitation, I believe, of the Prussians. Unfortunately it is the only respect in which our military apparatus resembles that of Prussia.

In order to neutralize the army I decide to use the navy. The navy? I hear you ask. What navy? Quite right, Chile does not have a navy. We do however have a Ministry of the Marine, and a Minister. This is another post that is a pure sinecure and is occupied by the favourite nephew of El Presidente, a most affable young man who is not too bright but very enthusiastic about boats. He is always riding off to Valparaiso to look at ships, and is very enthusiastic about steamships. "Steam is the future," he says to me one day. I wonder if his family has underestimated him.

A view of the harbour of Valparaiso, from the Santiago road, in the early nineteenth century:

I decide to buy the Marine Ministry a clipper transport. Clipper transports are actually very useful in a country with a geography like ours. And they are much cheaper than regiments. The Marine Minister is overjoyed - I think I have gained a political supporter.

 

[stnylan]

Sometimes the various events even work in your favour! A very useful discovery, hopefully that will provide some financial stability and allow some cautious development.

 

[unmerged(17581)]

Why is the first budget overview differently colored than the second?

 

[Snefix]

This is a marvelous development for the Chilean people. It is nice to see that they have a Finance Minister that is concerned with their welfare, whereas most Finance Ministers only concern themselves with ensuring the other governmental ministers have money for their various pet projects.

Let us hope that this silver mine and the new clipper transport proves to be of value to the nation of Chile.

I may have to play a new game as Chile when I get Revolutions in the next few days.