In the past Castellon has written a FAQ which describes the chances of success of colonization under the 1.06 patch. Because there have been a lot of changes in the game I decided to spend some time on finding the formula for 1.07 Beta patch Nov 2003 (the most recent one).
I haven't finished all the testing yet, but the following formula seems to estimate the chances quite well.
Chance of successful colonization =
Base percentage -
Difficulty modifier -
Climate modifier -
Colonization attempts modifier -
Year modifier -
Culture/religion modifier -
Number of colonies penalty +
Production efficiency bonus +
Conquistador bonus +
Colony level bonus +
Trade post bonus +
Bonus for adjoining colony or TP.
In case the result of this formula is negative or zero, the chance will be set on 1. In case the result is greater than 95 it will be reduced to 95.
In this formula is
Base percentage = 100
Difficulty modifier = 4 x Native tolerance value + 4 x Difficulty for colonization modifier. Both values can be found in provinces.csv
In case there are no natives in the province the native tolerance value penalty is removed from the formula (set at zero).
Climate modifier = 10 if the province has climate 4 or 6 (unless the capitol of the colonizing country has climate 4 or 6 too, in that case the penalty is set at zero).
The climate modifier = 0 for all other climates.
The climate can be found in provinces.csv too.
Colonisation attempts modifier = 20 - number of colonisation attempts
The minimum value of this modifier is zero.
Year modifier = 25-integer((current year-1419)/8).
After 1619 this value stays at zero.
Furthermore when the colonizing country tries to upgrade an existing colony/TP this value will also be zero.
Culture/religion modifier.
If the province doesn't have the same culture as the colonizing country the penalty is 8%.
If the province doesn't have the same religion as the colonizing country the penalty is 5%.
These two penalties will be added together if the province doesn't have the same culture and same religion as the colonizing country.
Number of colonies penalty = 5*(Number of colonies the colonizing country have - administration value of the monarch of the colonizing country).
The colonizer only receives this penalty when he tries to create a new colony (so this penalty isn't effective for upgrading existing colonies).
Production efficiency bonus = integer (production efficiency/10)
Conquistador bonus = 5 * movement rating of conquistador in province.
Colony level bonus = 4 * current level of colony.
Trade post bonus = 5 if there is a trade post in the province.
Bonus for adjoining colony or trade post = 5
What has no influence on the formula :
1) Number of natives in the province (unless the number is zero).
2) Stability
3) Difficulty level
4) Nation bonusses (as they were used in patch 1.06).
As I said I still have a number of tests to do, but I like to give these results already. I will update this post when I have more test results.
Of course comments are welcome too
I haven't finished all the testing yet, but the following formula seems to estimate the chances quite well.
Chance of successful colonization =
Base percentage -
Difficulty modifier -
Climate modifier -
Colonization attempts modifier -
Year modifier -
Culture/religion modifier -
Number of colonies penalty +
Production efficiency bonus +
Conquistador bonus +
Colony level bonus +
Trade post bonus +
Bonus for adjoining colony or TP.
In case the result of this formula is negative or zero, the chance will be set on 1. In case the result is greater than 95 it will be reduced to 95.
In this formula is
Base percentage = 100
Difficulty modifier = 4 x Native tolerance value + 4 x Difficulty for colonization modifier. Both values can be found in provinces.csv
In case there are no natives in the province the native tolerance value penalty is removed from the formula (set at zero).
Climate modifier = 10 if the province has climate 4 or 6 (unless the capitol of the colonizing country has climate 4 or 6 too, in that case the penalty is set at zero).
The climate modifier = 0 for all other climates.
The climate can be found in provinces.csv too.
Colonisation attempts modifier = 20 - number of colonisation attempts
The minimum value of this modifier is zero.
Year modifier = 25-integer((current year-1419)/8).
After 1619 this value stays at zero.
Furthermore when the colonizing country tries to upgrade an existing colony/TP this value will also be zero.
Culture/religion modifier.
If the province doesn't have the same culture as the colonizing country the penalty is 8%.
If the province doesn't have the same religion as the colonizing country the penalty is 5%.
These two penalties will be added together if the province doesn't have the same culture and same religion as the colonizing country.
Number of colonies penalty = 5*(Number of colonies the colonizing country have - administration value of the monarch of the colonizing country).
The colonizer only receives this penalty when he tries to create a new colony (so this penalty isn't effective for upgrading existing colonies).
Production efficiency bonus = integer (production efficiency/10)
Conquistador bonus = 5 * movement rating of conquistador in province.
Colony level bonus = 4 * current level of colony.
Trade post bonus = 5 if there is a trade post in the province.
Bonus for adjoining colony or trade post = 5
What has no influence on the formula :
1) Number of natives in the province (unless the number is zero).
2) Stability
3) Difficulty level
4) Nation bonusses (as they were used in patch 1.06).
As I said I still have a number of tests to do, but I like to give these results already. I will update this post when I have more test results.
Of course comments are welcome too
