Update:
Following the instructions here:
https://support.paradoxplaza.com/hc...y-launcher-doesn-t-work-my-game-wont-s-start-
Both Steam and eu4 are permitted through Windows Defender, and I've excluded the entire Steam directory from anti-virus (just the built-in Windows 10 one). Under Ransomware protection, "Controlled folder access" is turned off.
Both steam and the game are installed on the same partition (though not on C)
Running Steam as administrator didn't solve the issue.
I ran the game directly (by starting the eu4.exe file rather than using Steam. It worked! However, it gave me an error message that some things required steam integration (achievements, presumably), so that's still problematic.
I then removed Paradox Launcher 2 through the add/remove programs tool, again opened Steam as administrator, and ran EU4. I could see the launcher reinstall, verified it was still on borderless (it was), and ran the game.
Here's where things got weird: It got past the splashscreen, showed the initial map of europe and started playing music, and then nothing else. The UI elements never appeared, there was nothing to click on, it just sat there at that screen, playing music, for more than 5 minutes, after which time I closed it manually.
Subsequent attempts to launch the game via the launcher resulted on the game hanging on the splash screen again. Ugh.
Will attempt the "rather long and elaborate removal of the launcher" mentioned in that article in a bit.