Can you think of a way Japan could have successfully invaded the US mainland?

[krieger11b]

I should have highlighted this better, but I was principally questioning how a lightly armed, poorly trained and even more poorly coordinated militia/insurgency is any more likely to succeed in the USA than in any other nation where it actually occurred. History has shown time and time again that in conventional conflict, the lightly armed and poorly coordinated insurgents are unable to resist traditional warfare (albeit are very successful at striking occupying forces).

Well one huge difference between your comparison of typical occupied countries compared to the US, other than the already noted fact it would never be a real "oocupation." The US has huge gun ownership rates and back then it was even easier to find a place to shoot and practice marksmanship. So plentiful weapons plus above average marksmanship, plus fiercely independent minded people, and the fear of a Rape of Nanking would ensure quite a lot of motivation.

I think it would play out like this. At first it would be small groups of armed men/women from community groups, churches, Veterans of Foriegn Wars, etc. Then the US would try to incorperate them into their military structure, or at least strategy. They would be badly needed as I think a great deal of the people drafted by Roosevelt before WW2 were in the Pacific fighting off Japan as it was, like the Phillipines. Not completely sure on that, but I think it was the case.

 

[gagenater]

Well one huge difference between your comparison of typical occupied countries compared to the US, other than the already noted fact it would never be a real "oocupation." The US has huge gun ownership rates and back then it was even easier to find a place to shoot and practice marksmanship. So plentiful weapons plus above average marksmanship, plus fiercely independent minded people, and the fear of a Rape of Nanking would ensure quite a lot of motivation.

I think it would play out like this. At first it would be small groups of armed men/women from community groups, churches, Veterans of Foriegn Wars, etc. Then the US would try to incorperate them into their military structure, or at least strategy. They would be badly needed as I think a great deal of the people drafted by Roosevelt before WW2 were in the Pacific fighting off Japan as it was, like the Phillipines. Not completely sure on that, but I think it was the case.

Most of the people who were drafted/already in the armed forces prior to December 7th 1941 were not yet deployed overseas. Consequently a Japanese attempt to pull something on the mainland of the U.S. early in the war would find every military based crammed to bursting with draftees being trained, units recently assembled and preparing to go overseas, squadrons drilling with the latest aircraft, etc. The U.S. buildup just before the war started was so rapid that in many places whole units were sleeping in tents while they constructed the buildings and other infrastructure of the bases before they got deployed. The overseas forces of the U.S. at the outbreak of WWII most consisted of units that already existed pre war which had been reinforced and moved on to an alert footing. Very few newly raised units made it into anyplace useful before the Japanese declared war.

 

[krieger11b]

Most of the people who were drafted/already in the armed forces prior to December 7th 1941 were not yet deployed overseas. Consequently a Japanese attempt to pull something on the mainland of the U.S. early in the war would find every military based crammed to bursting with draftees being trained, units recently assembled and preparing to go overseas, squadrons drilling with the latest aircraft, etc. The U.S. buildup just before the war started was so rapid that in many places whole units were sleeping in tents while they constructed the buildings and other infrastructure of the bases before they got deployed. The overseas forces of the U.S. at the outbreak of WWII most consisted of units that already existed pre war which had been reinforced and moved on to an alert footing. Very few newly raised units made it into anyplace useful before the Japanese declared war.

OK, I didn't know that, I find it odd most troops drafted in September 1940, would not be ready over a year later.

 

[gagenater]

OK, I didn't know that, I find it odd most troops drafted in September 1940, would not be ready over a year later.

Drafting started in September of 1940 but at a slow pace. I don't have statistics for it (I am sure someone does) but most drafting/recruiting took place in the summer and fall of 1941.

 

[Lwantssugar]

Oh I absolutely agree with this and the entire lack of feasibility in the original premise.

I should have highlighted this better, but I was principally questioning how a lightly armed, poorly trained and even more poorly coordinated militia/insurgency is any more likely to succeed in the USA than in any other nation where it actually occurred. History has shown time and time again that in conventional conflict, the lightly armed and poorly coordinated insurgents are unable to resist traditional warfare (albeit are very successful at striking occupying forces).

I refer you to the Vietcong, who bled out the single most advanced army in the world at the time. If Japanese had landed in the lower 48 there would be no need for a draft since every man with a gun would be lined up at recruitment offices, public support for the war was pretty much unwavering at that point. In fact, I'm pretty sure some women even wouldve taken up arms if Japan landed in California. Like a said, a conventional campaign in California would be disastrous for Japan

 

[krieger11b]

I refer you to the Vietcong, who bled out the single most advanced army in the world at the time. If Japanese had landed in the lower 48 there would be no need for a draft since every man with a gun would be lined up at recruitment offices, public support for the war was pretty much unwavering at that point. In fact, I'm pretty sure some women even wouldve taken up arms if Japan landed in California. Like a said, a conventional campaign in California would be disastrous for Japan

I think the term "bled out" for the US military in Vietnam is a real overstate. 58K dead over 10 years? Most active from 1967-1972. The figures for Vietcong/North Vietnam is between 455,462–1,170,462.

They bled the will of enough of the US population, perticularly the louder part of society. It didn't help there was nothing more than the false "domino theory" or "defending freedom" to support it, that and the sunken cost fallacy as usual in a war.

 

[Finnish Dragon]

Japan had more than 25 infantry divisions in China in December 1941 and still they weren´t able to conquer China. That war had dragged on since 1937. Here is the Order of Battle of the Imperial Japanese Army in December 1941. To conquer US, Japanese army would have needed more troops and a guarantee from the navy that they have enough ships to keep those troops supplied and to keep the sea lanes from Japan to California open.

If they couldn´t conquer China in four years then how could they have matched against much better equipped US forces? US artillery, tanks and airplanes were roughly equal to the Japanese ones. US also had better logistics than Japan. Ultimately, US would have too many well-equipped troops to kick Japanese forces out of Californian coastal areas. Also, it would be very likely that there would be US guerrilla forces behind Japanese lines in California and the Japanese forces would retaliate to the civilian population making them to support the guerrillas even more.

 

[Jos de trol]

they couldn't even bomb the USA, except a few balloons

their attempt at a wunderwaffe carrier-submarine was unceremoniously surrendered in the pacific after the Japanese realised it was a bit silly to expect to still win the war with a couple of miniscule aircraft raids after the Americans had just utterly flattened to major urban hubs with atomic weapons.

 

[marty99]

According to the 2001 Michael Bay film, Pearl Harbor [sic], starring Ben Affleck, if the Japanese decided to invade mainland America they wouldn't have been stopped until they got to Chicago. I assume this is correct.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

According to the 2001 Michael Bay film, Pearl Harbor [sic], starring Ben Affleck, if the Japanese decided to invade mainland America they wouldn't have been stopped until they got to Chicago. I assume this is correct.

I hate to defend this movie but thats not a bad statement. People didnt knew what the Japanese been capable of or not.

 

[th3freakie]

I can think of one way:

[video=youtube;OFKpBT7eb5k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFKpBT7eb5k[/video]

Otherwise, it would depend on how solidly defeated the US Navy is. If we accept that somehow Japan not only sinks most of the USN but also conquers Hawai, then I imagine some limited incursions into the West Coast would be possible. No way to hold any ground, though.

 

[krieger11b]

Otherwise, it would depend on how solidly defeated the US Navy is. If we accept that somehow Japan not only sinks most of the USN but also conquers Hawai, then I imagine some limited incursions into the West Coast would be possible. No way to hold any ground, though.

Maybe something small and symbolic like the few Aleutian Islands they took and couple of shore bombardments with their submarines. So maybe a few attacks on ports, refineries, etc in cover of night.

It was really kind of funny on how over prepared the US was for a Japanese invasion. One funny example was the old turn of the century Kern River power plants that were about 200 miles from the coast had it's windows painted black and the plant operator did his inspections with a shotgun :rofl:

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

Maybe something small and symbolic like the few Aleutian Islands they took and couple of shore bombardments with their submarines. So maybe a few attacks on ports, refineries, etc in cover of night.

It was really kind of funny on how over prepared the US was for a Japanese invasion. One funny example was the old turn of the century Kern River power plants that were about 200 miles from the coast had it's windows painted black and the plant operator did his inspections with a shotgun :rofl:

The stories of the US collaboration with the Hollywood guys building the elaborate camouflage structures to prevent the identification of ground targets by Japanese bombers is a rather interesting story. The entire Lockheed plant looked like vacant farmland, absolutely amazing how they hid entire bases from a theoretically potential enemy.

The US was definitely concerned about 'what if', but Japan, as has been stated repeatedly, did not have the horses to take and hold any part of the US mainland for any significant length of time.

 

[krieger11b]

The stories of the US collaboration with the Hollywood guys building the elaborate camouflage structures to prevent the identification of ground targets by Japanese bombers is a rather interesting story. The entire Lockheed plant looked like vacant farmland, absolutely amazing how they hid entire bases from a theoretically potential enemy.

The US was definitely concerned about 'what if', but Japan, as has been stated repeatedly, did not have the horses to take and hold any part of the US mainland for any significant length of time.

The level of camoflage and smoke & mirrors by the allies was pretty amazing. From a fake invasion assembly grounds near Dover to a British magician using search lights to fool German night bombers into bombing what they thought was the Nile River cities and was in reality an empty desert!

 

[gagenater]

Maybe something small and symbolic like the few Aleutian Islands they took and couple of shore bombardments with their submarines. So maybe a few attacks on ports, refineries, etc in cover of night.

It was really kind of funny on how over prepared the US was for a Japanese invasion. One funny example was the old turn of the century Kern River power plants that were about 200 miles from the coast had it's windows painted black and the plant operator did his inspections with a shotgun :rofl:

This was more of a precaution against saboteurs that outright invasion. Sabotage was a big concern of the U.S. and the primary driver for the internment of nearly the entire ethnic Japanese population of the U.S. in concentration camps for the duration of the war.

 

[Kovax]

I've seen photos of a couple of people tending the plants on a fake spread-out suburban "housing development" of little white cottages about 10x15 feet in size, complete with lawns, gardens, streets, and tiny fake parked cars, all located on the roof of a large factory building.

The Japanese carrier/submarine might have been of some strategic use against the Panama Canal, which would have inconvenienced a considerable amount of shipping. Using it to attack factories and ports along the West Coast would have been another option, but would probably have been a nuisance more than a real threat.

The Japanese "balloon bombs" were more of a curiosity than anything else, and did little more than start a few small forest fires and injure a couple of people who got too curious about them.

I'm not sure if anybody even noticed the invasion of the Aleutian Islands until after the fact. It had absolutely no strategic or economic impact, other than possibly as a diversion.

 

[th3freakie]

Good point about Panama. Damage those locks enough and you've screwed shipping for a long time. Then again, there is a long way between the Pacific entrance and the first set of locks, and it is sitting right next to Panama City, which one presumes would be defended. So you can't just torpedo the things - you need to either send men or very precise bombers.

 

[Finnish Dragon]

Good point about Panama. Damage those locks enough and you've screwed shipping for a long time. Then again, there is a long way between the Pacific entrance and the first set of locks, and it is sitting right next to Panama City, which one presumes would be defended. So you can't just torpedo the things - you need to either send men or very precise bombers.

One possibility would have been to drive a ship through the Pacific entrance lock and scuttle that ship to block the Panama Canal. That would be like the Pacific version of the St Nazaire Raid in 1942.

 

[gagenater]

One possibility would have been to drive a ship through the Pacific entrance lock and scuttle that ship to block the Panama Canal. That would be like the Pacific version of the St Nazaire Raid in 1942.

The USN did several fleet problems (massive large scale naval wargame simulations where they actually sent the ships to the area of operations, sailed around, did fire exercises, etc.) during the 1920's and 1930's where they simulated attacks on the Panama Canal. In some ways they showed that the canal was very vulnerable in theory, but in other ways they showed that it was rather robust so there's no way to tell exactly how things might have gone.

 

[Kovax]

The locks are vulnerable to damage to an extent, but they can probably do enough "makeshift" repairs to have a lock at least semi-functional in a matter of a week or so. Sinking a ship in the canal could take a few days or weeks to clear, but again, wouldn't be a serious long-term blow.

Japan had the tools at its disposal to further annoy the US, and to make it look like a real fight, but ultimately it was a totally one-sided match-up.