As Germany, you have a national focus to demand Slovenia just like you demand the Sudentland. the Sudetenland is always given up, but I find Slovenia never is. Can someone explain to to get them to hand it over?
Must-have requirements :
- Yugoslavia must not be a puppet
- neither you nor Yugoslavia is at war with the UK
After that a chain of decisions takes place. First Britain gets to decide whether to abandon Yugoslavia. They will do so 90% of the time because otherwise they lose 200 PP and 5% stability to add Yugoslavia to the Allies.
Assuming the UK does abandon Yugoslavia, France gets to decide. Their decision is basically a carbon copy of the British one, so 90% success chance again in this step.
At this point, both countries have rescinded their guarantees with 81% probability. (EDIT: due to a
bug UK's decision can sidestep France)
Next up, if Italy chose Befriend Yugoslavia and is not allied with Germany, they get a chance to back up Yugoslavia. The probability here is 25% unless they have more than 75 divisions, making it a 50% probability.
Lastly, if abandoned by everyone, Yugoslavia gets to decide. The normal probability to give up Slovenia is again 90% in this step, with a couple of modifiers:
- Austria still existing halves the success chance
- having close to as many divisions as Germany (70%) divides the probability by 10
- being in a faction halves the success chance
- at least one neighboring country being allied with Germany halves the chance of refusing
So the best course of action (Anschluss, ally Italy, having a non-terrible army) puts the overall probability of success at 77%. Britain abandoning and France backing up Yugoslavia might also be seen as a partial success because they will form their own faction outside of the Allies.
and then how to get Greece to accept "protection"?
I assume you mean Fate of Greece? Here the situation is quite a bit simpler. Greece will always refuse if guaranteed or allied by/with anyone and always accept otherwise.