Can it be done?: Historical US production

[sterrius]

I played a lot of time USA, I heavily focus on military industry and naval dockyard, and no : you can't reach historical production.
In 1945, I was around 2/3 or 3/4 of historical US production, except maybe on naval. But never I have as many tanks or planes.

How did you build up your IC? Against MP strategys you need to go civ factorys in 36 and 37 if you wish to do that.
Thats because US only enters the war on 42. And the amount of civ factorys you can pull out is enough to add a good amount of them even with penaltys.
by 1940 you will be running out of slots to produce factorys and by 41-42 you will start converting civilian to do the job.

I was building TAC bombers instead of STRAT. I had 10 MIC on TAC's. I also had 15 MIC on fighters and was pushing that to 20.

Just a hint but you must already know. If your plan is strategic bomb don´t bother using tac´s after 1936 design. The 1940 S. Bomber is much superior and even 3 tac bombers will not be a match for them.
Also the fact 1 s.bomber have a much bigger chance of surviving the trip as his defense +25% from doctrine makes them almost immune to light fighters.

 

[jju_57]

No major country can reach historical results of planes and tanks.

 

[jju_57]

How did you build up your IC? Against MP strategys you need to go civ factorys in 36 and 37 if you wish to do that.
Thats because US only enters the war on 42. And the amount of civ factorys you can pull out is enough to add a good amount of them even with penaltys.
by 1940 you will be running out of slots to produce factorys and by 41-42 you will start converting civilian to do the job.

It's actually economically not sound to build CIC that early due to the 30%+ penalty based on the economic law. But if you do why not just build straight MIC? Unless I missed something it's cheaper than building CIC and converting to MIC later.

Just a hint but you must already know. If your plan is strategic bomb don´t bother using tac´s after 1936 design. The 1940 S. Bomber is much superior and even 3 tac bombers will not be a match for them.
Also the fact 1 s.bomber have a much bigger chance of surviving the trip as his defense +25% from doctrine makes them almost immune to light fighters.

This was just a test and to speed things up I just picked TAC.

 

[Secret Master]

It's actually economically not sound to build CIC that early due to the 30%+ penalty based on the economic law.

Leaving aside the implications from crappy economic laws, is it ever a good idea to build CIC under current rules?

Most nations seem to start with plenty, and some get extra CIC via NFs. CIC is really expensive. What's the payoff time for CIC?

 

[hkrommel]

What's the payoff time for CIC?

A lot.

In all seriousness it was calculated on a previous thread and I think it was somewhere in the range of 4-ish years IIRC. Not even worth it to build since it takes so long anyways.

 

[Alex_brunius]

No major country can reach historical results of planes and tanks.

I do think that France (4400 until 1940), UK and Japan ( Both less then 20000? ), and Italy could reach their historical number of tanks. Especially if they are allowed to mix in some light tanks too.

Most nations seem to start with plenty, and some get extra CIC via NFs. CIC is really expensive. What's the payoff time for CIC?

Depends alot on laws, ministers and techs of-course. Lowest you can get ( with 1943 techs ) should be a bit over 2 years, but normal situations closer to 3-4.

 

[bobre]

A lot.

In all seriousness it was calculated on a previous thread and I think it was somewhere in the range of 4-ish years IIRC. Not even worth it to build since it takes so long anyways.

You build CIC between 1936-1938 so you can boom later. Also you might need CIC for infra and other staff in later stages of war.

 

[jju_57]

Leaving aside the implications from crappy economic laws, is it ever a good idea to build CIC under current rules?

Most nations seem to start with plenty, and some get extra CIC via NFs. CIC is really expensive. What's the payoff time for CIC?

I admit most of my games are as Germany, SOV, USA and Japan. But I don't see a case to build CIC for any of these countries. I either have more than enough or get more than enough through conquests. Also, IIRC correctly CIC into MIC will always be more expensive than just building the MIC.

 

[jju_57]

I do think that France (4400 until 1940), UK and Japan ( Both less then 20000? ), and Italy could reach their historical number of tanks. Especially if they are allowed to mix in some light tanks too.

Sorry I meant both tanks AND planes, not either. You are 100% correct that Italy and even Japan can reach their historic numbers of tanks. Wasn't sure about France.

 

[Secret Master]

A lot.

In all seriousness it was calculated on a previous thread and I think it was somewhere in the range of 4-ish years IIRC. Not even worth it to build since it takes so long anyways.

I read that, too, but I was wondering if it was actually true.

I know that the USA is extra nerfed thanks to undisturbed isolation, making it almost nonsensical to build anything other than NIC.

epends alot on laws, ministers and techs of-course. Lowest you can get ( with 1943 techs ) should be a bit over 2 years, but normal situations closer to 3-4.

So, really, at most, the Soviet Union might profit from 1 year worth of CIC if they are betting on normal Barbarossa. If they think Barbarossa might start early, then it's a bad idea.

For the USA, Undisturbed Isolation makes it even more expensive to build CIC.

You build CIC between 1936-1938 so you can boom later. Also you might need CIC for infra and other staff in later stages of war.

Well, if my last USA test in this thread was any indication, the "boom" is unnecessary. Even building no CIC, I still maxed out all slots before 1944. (Maxed out all slots gained from techs, too) I spent the last year of the test converting CIC to MIC in a desperate bid to increase production. There was simply nothing else to do with my CIC at that point other than trade or convert CIC to MIC.

This was on veteran. On normal, the slots would have been maxed out sooner.

I admit most of my games are as Germany, SOV, USA and Japan. But I don't see a case to build CIC for any of these countries. I either have more than enough or get more than enough through conquests. Also, IIRC correctly CIC into MIC will always be more expensive than just building the MIC.

Oh yes, building CIC just to convert it to MIC down the road is a waste compared to just building more MIC.

Given the compounding value of existing CIC, there's no reason to convert factories until you are out of slots.

 

[Jamey]

So, really, at most, the Soviet Union might profit from 1 year worth of CIC if they are betting on normal Barbarossa. If they think Barbarossa might start early, then it's a bad idea.

The Soviet Union is the only nation for which I can convince myself to build CIC. One year of production there yields a nice industrial base, and you'll pretty much never run out of slots in Core territories. That may change for MP if there is a serious risk of war starting early, but for SP it makes all the sense in the world.

 

[melkor88]

I think one thing that has been shown 0that you cannot come near to historical production levels at the moment. So the options would be more factories or the factories produce a lot more.

I would like to be able to have either as I want to fight the war with all types of equipment, for ships I can get away with building a few carriers then just destroyers. For planes I only get fighters and CAS. But if I had more production levels I would build all types of units which would really help making the game a lot more immersive and realistic.

 

[jju_57]

I think one thing that has been shown 0that you cannot come near to historical production levels at the moment. So the options would be more factories or the factories produce a lot more.

I would like to be able to have either as I want to fight the war with all types of equipment, for ships I can get away with building a few carriers then just destroyers. For planes I only get fighters and CAS. But if I had more production levels I would build all types of units which would really help making the game a lot more immersive and realistic.

Only if losses were more realistic and historic. The Germans may have built 20K+ tanks but at no time did they have more than 3K-4K fighting at the same time. Losses would have to be huge and that means huge stockpiles of replacements.

 

[sterrius]

Ok lets go to civilian factorys calculations. For US

7200 is the cost of a civil factory.
For a single industry with 5 IC -50% they need 7,8 years to pay themselves. (in 44 ).

On top of that they also did not build 2 mil. factorys.

if you look like that you will call anyone crazy to do it. But lets remember some Limitations and facts first.

1-> First this strategy is not for Multiplayer. In MP a ton of factorys and house rules change everything. Its not rare for the US to awake in 37 because japan rushes china and everyone send troops to spain making the world tension go above 25% without much effort.

2-> Lots of discounts come during 36 speeding the pay off. (Construction I and II for a total of 20%)
3-> US starts in free trade (+15% build speed)
4-> US in SINGLE PLAYER (The scenario i used) only need to go to the war in 1942.
5-> The AIM is to reach historical production that means the war itself is secondary, you just need to pump as much equipment as you can until Dez 1944.

This strategy makes you win in military factorys around 42-43 against someone that started mil. factorys in 36 and never constructed 1 civil factory.

So lets now calculate the real price and payoff.

1936 jan 1 -> 5 IC - 35% = 3,25. This pays 7200IC in 6 years (So in 42 they will pay themselves).

So from day 1 without upgrades a Civilian factory will pay itself in 1942 around March (as the first one is finished around march)


with 177 days construction I gets enabled (+10%) (16 June 36)
Now a factory gives 3,75. It needs now 5,2 years. (still around jan-jun 42 as you are in june 36)

On 20 Jan 37 you get construction 2.
from 3,75 you go up to 4,25. Now it takes 4,6 years. (Around june 41 they are paying themselves now).

Around may-august 37 you should stop. Any factory made beyond this date will not be able to pay itself +2 mil. Factorys by 1942-43.

Also 38 you should start to catch up and produce something if you want to join sooner in the war.


For building a military factory from 0 with just 1 factory.
5 + 10% from partial mobilization + 15% from free trade + 20 % from construction I and II + 10% from politician = 7,75 = 1,27 years.

8,75/day with war economy + construction 4 (40-41) = 1,1 year. (13 months).

So going back to the top of this topic your first civil factory in march 36. Will pay itself in march 41.

By 1942 they will have given you 1 mil. factory by themselves.
By 1943 a second one and still in 1943 they will convert itself to a mil. factory. (total of 3).

The tricky is. They don´t build factorys alone but in groups of 15.
So in fact they will build those mil. factorys much faster and help you reach the slot limit some months faster...


Of course this calculation is not perfect. For instance the amount of slots you have is limited and i don´t have enough math expertise to calculate the breaking point. I know its around 37.

So to stay safe i stop building civ factorys before Jun 37.




With other countrys you need to calculate everything again. Each country have its own breaking point.

All other countrys have problems to go civ factorys because they have to enter in the war in 39. Being almost impossible to make them pay themselves and help build a military factory on top of that.

Germany for example can steal civ factorys.
France don´t have the luxury to wait them pay themselves around 1940 with so many needs.
USSR have a +10% cost.
And the list goes on.

Japan and UK im unsure, i need to calculate for them as they are also pretty safe as long they focus navy and japan don´t need much to beat china if they start early.

For most other countrys usually 15-30 civil factorys is enough. Just building them ater to compensate for imports.


In my opinion civ factorys should cost around 6000 IC instead of 7200. As it is now its a very expensive and no brainer to ignore them in multiplayer.

It should be more of a early game vs late game gambit.

 

[Axe99]

Really the historic build would not be a problem EXCEPT for getting the techs done right. And unfortunately if I'm playing UK I find other 1940 techs way more important than the ship techs so those have to wait.

But if I wanted to focus all my techs slots on just ships I can easily get you the exact number of year ships. Remember I will have about a 20-30% LARGER navy than historical by the end of 1945 with the above.

The key is efficiency and understanding how the ship production process actually works. First concentrate and get to the number of NIC you want for that ship type. Then make sure you always get the economic techs done ASAP for the year. Don't forget that UK has a NF that allows a 50% reduction in an economic tech. This works great for getting a 1939 tech done in 1938.

Many players make the mistake of building CIC/MIC in the early years when there is a 30% penalty due to the economic laws. NIC neither benefits nor is punished by economic laws. So get you NIC done forst and as WT goes up you can spend PP to change the economic laws to a mobilization that then gives MIC a 10% boost. That is when you switch over. And of course UK has little man power so ships and planes are my primary focus. I try not to even stockpile early INF equipment as I really want my divisions to have 1939 INF stuff.

But as I said it is no problem building even a 100% historic navy provided you do the tech research on time and forgo other more important research stuff. And in the end does 3 1936 tech DD's defeat a single 1940 tech DD? I think so.

Aye - part of the issue is that it's very hard (I'd say impossible, but I'm not the min-maxxer you are, so I daresay there'll be a way) to hit the UK's techs historically on time, which makes it trickier. That said, I can't bring myself to do crazy ahistorical plays like only building NIC early because the balance in production costs hasn't been refined. No nation, anywhere, just built NIC until partial mobilisation, and using ahistoric methods to hit historic builds feels kinda off. Not saying you're wrong though - the question wasn't could it be done historically, but could it be done, and my blind spot to that style of gameplay was my issue - it can definitely be done (although, due to the terrible balancing of these things, I'd expect a number of nations to be able to be able to built the US' naval build following this method, which for me is a concern - no way you'll be able to get away with this kind of play in the mod I'm putting together ).

Leaving aside the implications from crappy economic laws, is it ever a good idea to build CIC under current rules?

Most nations seem to start with plenty, and some get extra CIC via NFs. CIC is really expensive. What's the payoff time for CIC?

I find with minors, in particular, it's handy for purchasing resources. The way resources are distributed means some countries need a lot for trade to fuel their factories. It can also be very handy for repairing damaged infra quickly.

That said, were it me, I'd make the non-mobilised economic laws have a discount for CIC (pre-mobilisation that was, after all, the economic focus), so that the 'optimal' thing to do pre-mobilisation would be to focus most production on CIC. That way, you'd actually get the transfer of CIC to MIC that happened historically to be worth doing. I think I've only done CIC to MIC once, and that was to counter for overdoing CIC early, not because it made sense to shift the economy from civilian to military production at a certain point.

 

[sterrius]

Just a little update. Started a game to count the number of civ. factorys i was able to build until mid 37 with US.

Total of 10.

72000IC is more or less what you can do before mid 37.

Or 20 mil. Factorys or around 21 dockyards.

Take your poison


I also did some fast calculations with all other majors.

France and England don´t even bother. It takes 4+ years even if you full focus it and your war starts in 38-39. France is better building weapons or forts and england dockyards/mil factorys.

For Germany, Italy and Japan its MAYBE.

Germany, Italy and Japan have no penalty at the start and the Civ Factorys pay themselves in 3 years more or less.

This allows you to devote all 1936 to civ factorys and they will be paying themselves in 1939.

For germany lots of MP games only allow wars after 1939. For those games you can pull 3, maybe 4 extra civil factorys. THe price is 6-8 mil. factorys. Its not a bad trade in those situations.

If you go to war sooner its better avoid and take the extra production from those factorys.


For italy i really recommend it because the low amount of civ factorys is a big problem for italy. A extra 2 factorys is not going to fix this problem but any amount helps and all they ask is 3-4 mil.factorys. Also it hardly changes anything for you in 36 and 37.


For japan you have to face china. Can you win vs china delaying 4-6 mil. factorys for a year? the reward is around 2-3 civ factorys. Beside that no other change in strategy and you can import more resources.


Its a interesting choice for those three countrys. ITs up to the game rules and what you want to do with each country. For single player going historical focus i totally recommend it.

For MP really depends on the speed of your strategy. I can see the slow ones benefit from it without really paying much. (Just a little better organization in production to make up for the less factorys).


For USSR is super difficulty to recommend. Because of the 10% penalty and start plus civilian economy i would not build a single one before you go to partial mobilization.

If the civil war is enough for that you can maybe squeeze 1 Civ factory in 36. Otherwise you're out of luck.



For all minors. (At least the ones with some factorys to actually have a choice in the matter like Brazil, Turkey, etc). -> If you plan to go to war after 1940 go for it until june-end of 1937. If you plan to steal civ factorys don´t need to build them.

 

[Secret Master]

Alright, I have succeeded in meeting the production of the US Army and US Navy while giving 17% of all production as Lend-Lease to the Allies (Britain for convenience).

First of all, something wonderful happened while playing.

I'm not sure why this happened, but AI UK wanted to Lend-Lease me equipment while I was sending them 17% of my military production. So, in the future, if anyone says the AI never Lend-Leases, just link them to this post.

Here's the USN as of V-J Day.

With no ability to build CVEs and CVLs, I just built extra Essex class CVs. Note that the Alaska class BCs get rolled into the BB count by the game.

The US Army was easy to build, and I didn't even need to run conscription past extensive conscription.

And my divisions were up to par.

And I have plenty of equipment.

I'd like to point out that even though I gave away 17% of my Shermans as Lend-Lease, I still have enough Sherman tanks to build three times as many armored divisions. I also have enough tank destroyers to replace all of the ones in service with the infantry divisions. And I have so much artillery and infantry equipment that I could lose 100% of the US Army and replace their equipment, perhaps two times over. (The manpower is obviously a different problem.)

You'll notice that I have enough aircraft to staff all carriers. And plenty of fighters, CAS, and STR in the stockpile. Enough to defeat the Axis at any rate.

I think it's safe to say that the USA has enough economic strength to meet her historical production targets in terms of being able to build historical divisions while also building her historical navy. Obviously, raw numbers of tanks, equipment, and planes are not possible, but I think we could easily use math to create ratios that make sense.

The USA is strong enough economically when compared to her historical power.

I've got some save games if you don't believe me.

 

[jju_57]

Just a little update. Started a game to count the number of civ. factorys i was able to build until mid 37 with US.

Total of 10.

72000IC is more or less what you can do before mid 37.

Or 20 mil. Factorys or around 21 dockyards.

Wait are you claiming that from Jan 1 1936 till about July 1 1937 playing as the US you can build 10 CIC OR 20 MIC OR 21 NIC?

 

[Axe99]

Nice work Secret Master, very impressive . And lol at the UK wanting to give you something back!

 

[gronank]

the payoff time on building CIC depends on how much you need to import. In a simple simulation I did with 100 starting CIC, 0 starting MIC, building CIC started paying off 2.5-3.5 after the switch to MIC. 2.5 years when you need to import with 1 CIC for every 2 MIC and 3.5 years when you only need to trade 1CIC for every 4 MIC.

Of course, it is a very simplified model and doesnt account for any building speed bonuses, law changes, out going trade, et.c. But the pay off time remains about the same.