Right from the start Poland has 29 force limit. If you annex Mazowia, you get around 31. If you accept Lithuania under PU, you get around 2-4 more. if you ineffectively wage some wars, you get at least around 2 (because of the autonomy and ineffective conquering). SO, you have 29+2+3+2 = 36 troops at least.
36k > 20k
You have probably miscalculated something. Besides, by 1470 Your combat width is 22 max. So, those 30k don't really fight all together, and you can simply start with 22, and reinforce with 36-22 = FOURTEEN MORE TROOPS, or just ineffectively fight with your 36 VS 30 rebels.
There is one thing missing in your calculation : you have to be able to afford that standing army for 25 years...