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Lwantssugar

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It's more likely if the guardian is either diligent and or gregarious, likewise it's less likely if they're slothful or shy
 

Comradebot

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Yep, certainly possible. Used it to once turn my child king Pagan in order to form Pomerania, and then managed to even switch back with the same ruler to a Catholic before I got annihilated for my heathen ways.
 

Isaios

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The event has a MTTH of 120 months and a max age of 15.

This affects it:

  • Zealous: 0.5
  • Diligent: 0.5
  • Priest: 0.2
  • Cynical: 2.0
  • Slothful: 2.0

So you could get it down to a MTTH of 6 months. A Virtual guarantee of conversion.

Culture is somewhat different. The MTTH is also 120, and the max age is atill 15 but the traits affecting it are a bit different:

  • Diligent: 0.5
  • Gregarious: 0.5
  • Shy: 2.0
  • Slothful: 2.0


So the best here is MTTH 30. That's still only a 32.4% chance of conversion if the child is tutored its entirely childhood.