I am starting a new thread about the distribution of resources, and notably the problem of rubber. Shortages of rubber lead to shortages of all other types of resources. When rubber runs dry, in the world market and nationally, oil is converted to make up for rubber shortages. This requires a lot of oil. Steel/Coal is traded away (in large numbers) to get this oil which in turn is used to fuel fleets and make rubber. This is very inefficient, and will lead to coal/steel shortages as it tries to eliminate the active rubber deficit.
Example: To get 50 rubber, the following process must be followed (this is also an optimistic caluculation), just to meet industrial requirements. Most nations have access to coal/steel, fewer have access to oil, but oil is not as rare a resource as rubber (it is much better distributed, as it is in large amounts in more than just 4 nations).
300 Coal is traded on the world market for 100 Oil (3:1)
100 Oil is converted to 50 Rubber (if rubber is converted at 2:1)
This results in the waste of 300 Coal per day, just to get 50 rubber. This also does not take into account domestic oil use. if a nation needs both oil and rubber, then Coal/Steel trades will have to be even higher then what I stated above. If there is a large military drain on oil, this factor of Coal/steel loss will be even greater, and will result in the collapse of the economies of many nations, and ships without oil to take part in missions.
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Looking through the economies of the two biggest rubber barons (Netherlands produces 700 rubber a day, England produces 1100 rubber a day), I came across some interesting conculsions.
#1. Neither of the two nations ship half of their rubber home. Netherlands ships about 350 rubber home/day, while England ships about 300 rubber home/day (leaving 1150 rubber growing and adding to British and Dutch colonies per day). The problem is convoy size. It would take a British convoy of over 400 ships to carry all of the rubber from Malaya to England each day (the territories with the most rubber production). England gets enough rubber to sustain itself, and the Commonwealth nations, along with a significant growth, but it would be better (for possible rubber events) if England would ship more than 1/3 or 1/4 of the rubber production home.
#2. Only the Netherlands starts the game trading AWAY rubber (about 200/day). England trades away coal, not rubber.
#3. Nations only start trading on the world market when they have run out of resources in the pool and have negative growth. The Dutch and British will not set up any more trades on the world market unless THEY need a resource. They sit there, with oodles of rubber, but won't trade it because they don't need anything. Since the Netherlands has a small economy, what resources it is getting in 1936 (either through domestic production or existing 1936 world market trades) are sufficient. England is large enough, with access to enough resources, that they don't have to worry about trading on the world market.
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Here are the 4 major rubber producers
England
1091 Rubber Produced/day
480 is Shipped to England/day
100 is used domestically/day
0 is traded/day
(510 is added to pools in the colonies/day, while 380 gets added to the home pool/day)
Netherlands
677 Rubber Produced/day
380 is Shipped to Holand/day
18 is used domestically/day
200 is traded/day
(300 is added to pools in the colonies/day, while 150 gets added to the home pool/day)
France
218 Rubber Pruduced/day
218 is Shipped to France/day
70 is used domestically/day
0 is traded/day
(France is the only nation that ships all of their rubber home, while 120 gets added to the home pool/day)
Belgium
134 Rubber Produced/day
88 is Shipped to Belgium/day
16 is used domestically/day
15 is traded/day
(50 is added to pools in the colonies/day, while 50 gets added to the home pool/day)
Total of the big 4
2020 Rubber Produced/day
1166 is Shipped to Europe/day
204 is used domestically/day
255 is traded/day
(900 is added to pools in the colonies/day, while 650 gets added to the home pools/day)
So, we can see problem #1 about 95% of all rubber production is in the hands of 4 nations, #2 about 50% of all rubber production remains in the colonies, problem #3 about 1/5 of shipped rubber is used by these nations, and only about 1/5 of shipped rubber is traded away leaving 3/5 of all shipped rubber, and 7/10 of all rubber unused. These nations face such rampant surplus' at home that they can easily afford to leave large amounts of their resources back in the colonies (when they are desperately needed elsewhere). After about a year, these 4 nations will have rubber surplus' of about 99 999 (even by shipping only about 50% of their total rubber resources home).
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What I think we can do.
#1. Increase the amount of rubber resources that these nations ship home (this requires massive convoys).
#2a. Increase the amount of rubber resources that these nations trade away on the world market. The problem is, will the AI keep these trades in existence if they are unfavourable? For example, if instead of 200 coal for 100 oil, we do 200 rubber for 100 oil (England starting world market trades), will this A) be enough to meet world market requirements, B) be guaranteed not to be cancelled by the British AI?
#2b. Create events that will give rubber directly to rubber deficient economies (during peacetime this won't be limited), in exchange for resources, tech or supplies (like existing oil, steel and coal events). Major nations that suffer in rubber (during peacetime), are the Germany, United States, Japan, Russia, China, Italy. If we just create events that give these countries their rubber requirements through peacetime trades, then the drain on the world market will not be as high. The US alone requires about 300 rubber/day, while the input into the rubber pool (mainly by the Netherlands) is only about 260. No wonder the world market dries out. This could be combined with #2a, resulting in minor nations gaining their rubber requirements from the world market, which would also be gaining a surplus.
Since these few large nations have over 50% of all world industry, if we take care of their rubber needs directly through events, this will ease the pressure on the world market, enough that hopefully minor nations will be able to get affordable rubber from the market, and with the market and national rubber pools both growing instead of shrinking to nothing (in combination with getting rubber producing nations to ship rubber home, and trade it away to the world market).
Example: To get 50 rubber, the following process must be followed (this is also an optimistic caluculation), just to meet industrial requirements. Most nations have access to coal/steel, fewer have access to oil, but oil is not as rare a resource as rubber (it is much better distributed, as it is in large amounts in more than just 4 nations).
300 Coal is traded on the world market for 100 Oil (3:1)
100 Oil is converted to 50 Rubber (if rubber is converted at 2:1)
This results in the waste of 300 Coal per day, just to get 50 rubber. This also does not take into account domestic oil use. if a nation needs both oil and rubber, then Coal/Steel trades will have to be even higher then what I stated above. If there is a large military drain on oil, this factor of Coal/steel loss will be even greater, and will result in the collapse of the economies of many nations, and ships without oil to take part in missions.
--------------------
Looking through the economies of the two biggest rubber barons (Netherlands produces 700 rubber a day, England produces 1100 rubber a day), I came across some interesting conculsions.
#1. Neither of the two nations ship half of their rubber home. Netherlands ships about 350 rubber home/day, while England ships about 300 rubber home/day (leaving 1150 rubber growing and adding to British and Dutch colonies per day). The problem is convoy size. It would take a British convoy of over 400 ships to carry all of the rubber from Malaya to England each day (the territories with the most rubber production). England gets enough rubber to sustain itself, and the Commonwealth nations, along with a significant growth, but it would be better (for possible rubber events) if England would ship more than 1/3 or 1/4 of the rubber production home.
#2. Only the Netherlands starts the game trading AWAY rubber (about 200/day). England trades away coal, not rubber.
#3. Nations only start trading on the world market when they have run out of resources in the pool and have negative growth. The Dutch and British will not set up any more trades on the world market unless THEY need a resource. They sit there, with oodles of rubber, but won't trade it because they don't need anything. Since the Netherlands has a small economy, what resources it is getting in 1936 (either through domestic production or existing 1936 world market trades) are sufficient. England is large enough, with access to enough resources, that they don't have to worry about trading on the world market.
--------------------
Here are the 4 major rubber producers
England
1091 Rubber Produced/day
480 is Shipped to England/day
100 is used domestically/day
0 is traded/day
(510 is added to pools in the colonies/day, while 380 gets added to the home pool/day)
Netherlands
677 Rubber Produced/day
380 is Shipped to Holand/day
18 is used domestically/day
200 is traded/day
(300 is added to pools in the colonies/day, while 150 gets added to the home pool/day)
France
218 Rubber Pruduced/day
218 is Shipped to France/day
70 is used domestically/day
0 is traded/day
(France is the only nation that ships all of their rubber home, while 120 gets added to the home pool/day)
Belgium
134 Rubber Produced/day
88 is Shipped to Belgium/day
16 is used domestically/day
15 is traded/day
(50 is added to pools in the colonies/day, while 50 gets added to the home pool/day)
Total of the big 4
2020 Rubber Produced/day
1166 is Shipped to Europe/day
204 is used domestically/day
255 is traded/day
(900 is added to pools in the colonies/day, while 650 gets added to the home pools/day)
So, we can see problem #1 about 95% of all rubber production is in the hands of 4 nations, #2 about 50% of all rubber production remains in the colonies, problem #3 about 1/5 of shipped rubber is used by these nations, and only about 1/5 of shipped rubber is traded away leaving 3/5 of all shipped rubber, and 7/10 of all rubber unused. These nations face such rampant surplus' at home that they can easily afford to leave large amounts of their resources back in the colonies (when they are desperately needed elsewhere). After about a year, these 4 nations will have rubber surplus' of about 99 999 (even by shipping only about 50% of their total rubber resources home).
--------------------
What I think we can do.
#1. Increase the amount of rubber resources that these nations ship home (this requires massive convoys).
#2a. Increase the amount of rubber resources that these nations trade away on the world market. The problem is, will the AI keep these trades in existence if they are unfavourable? For example, if instead of 200 coal for 100 oil, we do 200 rubber for 100 oil (England starting world market trades), will this A) be enough to meet world market requirements, B) be guaranteed not to be cancelled by the British AI?
#2b. Create events that will give rubber directly to rubber deficient economies (during peacetime this won't be limited), in exchange for resources, tech or supplies (like existing oil, steel and coal events). Major nations that suffer in rubber (during peacetime), are the Germany, United States, Japan, Russia, China, Italy. If we just create events that give these countries their rubber requirements through peacetime trades, then the drain on the world market will not be as high. The US alone requires about 300 rubber/day, while the input into the rubber pool (mainly by the Netherlands) is only about 260. No wonder the world market dries out. This could be combined with #2a, resulting in minor nations gaining their rubber requirements from the world market, which would also be gaining a surplus.
Since these few large nations have over 50% of all world industry, if we take care of their rubber needs directly through events, this will ease the pressure on the world market, enough that hopefully minor nations will be able to get affordable rubber from the market, and with the market and national rubber pools both growing instead of shrinking to nothing (in combination with getting rubber producing nations to ship rubber home, and trade it away to the world market).
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