Ugh...
It seems I've bitten into more then I can chew through. Using the aforementioned world resource production table, I've calculated new resource values for major countries and world totals.
I've used a number of assumptions, and extended material lists (so that rubber covers most of strategic rare metals). I've also assumed that same quantities of different materials within a category are equivalent.
The problem lies in the fact that I ended up with something like just enough total resources to power a daily IC total of 1322. Even after using coal as a basis for calculation and multiplying steel and rubber production by 6 and 7 to maintain HoI ratios (2:1:1/2). Even worse, only US and USSR can hope to maintain operating near their peak IC potential given their resource production. Everybody else can basically give up and suffer a total collapse as soon as initial stockpiles run out.
Obviously, something is wrong with either my assumptions and/or my knowledge of the way world industrial output was turned into HoI production figures. I still think my resource ratios are good. What I can do at this point is find out total IC potential in vanilla HoI, and use this figure to correct my numbers, so that my calculated world daily total supportable IC is equal to actual HoI one. I could then add 50% more world resources, just to be on the safe side.
Here is my work so far:
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World strategic materials production for HoI C.O.R.E.
Note: This "little" note started as a simple attempt to summarize some kind of expected production figures for HoI basic resources. How it grew into this complex monster is beyond me...
Figures taken from:
http://members.tripod.com/~Sturmvogel/resources.html
Definitions of resources in C.O.R.E.:
1. Strategic Non-Oil Fuels ("coal") = Coal, wood, charcoal.
2. Industrial Metals ("steel") = Steel, iron, copper, aluminum.
3. Petroleum-based Fuels ("oil") = Oil, natural gas.
4. Strategic Materials ("rubber") = Rubber, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, chrome lead, tin, zinc, nickel, manganese, sulphur, pyrites, phosphates, potash, magnesite.
5. Supplies ("supplies") = Ammunition, food, agricultural products, clothes, precious metals, precious gems, other tradable goods.
All metal resources refer to ore production numbers. Processing facilities, like steel mills, should more properly be counted as IC.
Food includes the following: wheat, rice, maize, cane sugar, beet sugar, and meat.
Precious metals and gems include the following: gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, rubies, and saphires.
Supplies should also be expected to include any other resource that does not fit under the other 4 categories. This resource should be portable, have universal market value, and be tradable for money.
The CORE unit values were derived with the assumption that 1000 tons equals one CORE unit. All values were also rounded to the nearest number. Totals will not match computed figures due to rounding effect. Also, final values were multiplied with correctional factors to produce same resource ratios produced as those found in HoI.
Methodology
Even though the source figures are for 1937, it seems safe enough to assume 1936 figures would not be significantly different. This model also assumes that all resources and materials within the same category are equally valuable and essentially interchangeable. While this certainly was not true in real life it should suffice for our level of simulation.
Last category guess, supplies, takes into account food production figures. This number should be taken as a guideline for setting up trades of supplies for resources and technology. Supplies are not given in daily production totals because this makes little sense. Initial supply pools should be guessed using supply consumption of a fully mobilized national army and estimated time that current war materials would last. So, if country X said it had enough supplies to keep its army stocked for 120 days, and it had Y divisions, it should be easy enough to calculate initial supply total.
Production figures are per year. To get daily CORE production in units, I chose to divide the numbers by 360 (number of days in HoI year). Daily production figures are in parenthesis just after the yearly totals.
HoI uses the following usage ratios for IC production and resources:
2 "coal", 1 "steel", 1/2 "rubber" needed for 1 IC.
I assume our goal here is to have resource ratios match those in HoI. Assuming we are keeping coal as the constant, the following ratios are derived from raw world figures:
14 "coal", 1.25 "steel", 1/2 "rubber" needed for 1 IC.
Still using coal as the relevant figure, we need to multiply "steel" production figures by 6 and "rubber" production figures by 7 to come up with the same ratios as in HoI. Since CORE will likely use exact (or as close as we can get to) historical fuel consumption figures, there is no need to adjust "oil" production totals.
However, oil-to-rubber conversion ratios need to be carefully considered. Adjusted world "rubber" production total comes up to 861, compared to "oil" total of 756. Since initially oil converts to rubber at 2:1 ratio, and since some oil will be spent on military units, there won't be much left for conversion to rubber. Of course, the world market auto-adds certain amounts of "phantom" production to the market every day, so this might not be a real problem.
The final adjusted daily production figures are set in square brackets, just after unadjusted daily production figures.
Results
World Production Totals (in millions of tons, unadjusted):
COAL = 1247 (3464) [3464]
STEEL = 104.3 (290) [1764]
OIL = 272 (756) [756]
RUBBER = 44.2 (123) [861]
Without hard-coded world market adjustments, world resources can support 1322 IC daily. The number with adjustments and ideal trading is not much bigger.
Major countries
USA
1. Coal = 426474 (1185) [1185]
2. Steel = 37240 + 736 + 440 = 38416 (107) [642]
3. Oil = 163200 (453) [453]
4. Rubber = 425 + 581.4 + 2.2 + 0.021 + 17.6 + 1.2 + 186 + 2788 + 616 + 4500 + 259.2 + 198 = 9575 (27) [189]
5. Supplies = 25050 + 3589 + 64350 + 3060 + 1552 + 7200 = 104801
USSR
1. Coal = 115971 (322) [322]
2. Steel = 14014 + 92 + 248 = 14354 (40) [240]
3. Oil = 29920 (83) [83]
4. Rubber = 56.1 + 72.2 + 19.8 + 1230 + 14 + 90 + 638 + 3750 + 233.6 + 486 = 6590 (18) [126]
5. Supplies = 45090 + 2256 + 2808 + 2231 + 4500 = 56885
UK
1. Coal = 231942 (644) [644]
2. Steel = 4312 (12) [72]
3. Oil = 0 (0) [0]
4. Rubber = 27.2 + 2.6 + 7.6 + 0.8 = 38 (0.1) [1]
5. Supplies = 2004 + 291 + 1350 = 3644
British Empire (Can, SA, Aus, NZ included)
1. Coal = 62350 (173) [173]
2. Steel = 5782 + 575 + 400 = 6757 (19) [113]
3. Oil = 5440 (15) [15]
4. Rubber = 578 + 78 + 530.1 + 1001 + 1110 + 44 + 246 + 0.4 + 1012 + 1305 + 19.2 + 108 + 468 = 6500 (18) [126]
5. Supplies = 28390 + 48880 + 4095 + 5440 + 126.1 + 2640 = 89571
Regional areas:
1. Canada - Steel = 235 (1) [4], Rubber = 185.3 + 172.9 + 984.5 = 1343 (4) [26], Supplies = 9519 + 750 = 10269
2. North Rhodesia - Steel = 244 (1) [4]
3. Australia - Rubber = 249.9 + 210.9 + 55.8 = 517 (1) [10], Supplies = 765 + 960 = 1725
4. Malay - Rubber = 55.6 + 370.8 = 426 (1) [8]
5. British Guyana - Steel = 364 (1) [6]
6. India - Rubber = 537 (1) [10], Supplies = 11022 + 40890 + 3179 = 55091
7. Guadalcanal - Rubber = 282 (1) [5]
8. South Africa - Rubber = 270 + 76.8 = 347 (1) [7]
9. Burma - Rubber = 31 (0) [1]
10. South Rhodesia - Rubber = 137 (0) [3]
11. Cyprus - Rubber = 803 (2) [16]
12. Pacific Islands - Rubber = 1305 (4) [25]
France
1. Coal = 42398 (118) [118]
2. Steel = 11466 + 680 = 12146 (34) [202]
3. Oil = 0 (0) [0]
4. Rubber = 5.1 + 3 + 154 + 105 + 512 = 779.1 (2) [15]
5. Supplies = 9352 + 468 + 795.4 + 1440 = 12055
French Empire
1. Coal = 42398 (118) [118]
2. Steel = 1764 + 8 = 1772 (5) [30]
3. Oil = 0 (0) [0]
4. Rubber = 34 + 2.2 + 17.1 + 48.4 + 9 + 3.6 + 24.6 + 1.2 + 44 + 4200 + 60.3 = 4444 (12) [86]
5. Supplies = 2672 + 7332 + 1287 + 238 + 240 = 11769
Regional areas:
1. North Caledonia - Rubber = 47.3 + 24.6 = 72 (0) [1]
2. French Morocco / Tunisia - Rubber = 3375 (9) [66]
3. French Indo-China - Rubber = 58 (0) [1], Supplies = 6298
Greater Germany (including Austria and Czechoslovakia)
1. Coal = 190791 (530) [530]
2. Steel = 4018 + 29.9 + 92 = 4140 (12) [72]
3. Oil = 544 (2) [2]
4. Rubber = 91.8 + 0.2 + 178.6 + 252 + 462 + 1984 + 504 = 3473 (10) [68]
5. Supplies = 7849 + 702 + 2425 + 4200 = 15176
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Comments?
Zerli
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