C.O.R.E HOI - Western Europe (France, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Iberia, etc)

[Generalisimo]

yes, the idea is more or less what i wanted to do...
but, it is still missing:

1) The romanian province that it is said that was offered.
2) The slovakian provinces that it is said that were offered.
3) What happens with the Baltic States.

My conclusion talking with a german guy was:
Hitler considered the Baltic States "inferiors", so he will surelly invade them sooner or later, well, we could add an event for Germany after the war against France/UK (lower a bit the dissent for Poland, Germany shows their power, Polands thinks it has selected the right choice) that lets you attack the Baltic States. When Germany annex them (an easy job) some provinces could be secede to Poland, as a gesture of goodwill (lower dissent in Poland, people think it was a good choice to join Germany, "the winner").
Then USSR, could join the war to "defend" the Baltic States independence, and declare war against Germany, then Poland join axis (if it has not joined earlier).
this event could be when the war between GER-Baltic States starts, but will leave Poland alone while Germany is beating the Baltic States, OR wait until Germany finish the Baltic States, so the front is created.
Of course, with this "defend" event, the USSR will get claims over all the Baltic States (they cannot defend on their own )
All that will create a front POL/GER against SOV.

 

[Steel]

Don't know about Romania, but for Slovakia the Polish desire was to establish a direct land border with Hungary.

 

[Generalisimo]

Originally posted by Steel
Don't know about Romania, but for Slovakia the Polish desire was to establish a direct land border with Hungary.

so, they wanted to swallow the entire Slovakia?

 

[Vulture]

Ok, seems like I got some time on my hands again... I will try to script some events regarding Belgian volunteers and such over the weekend.

 

[Generalisimo]

Originally posted by Vulture
Ok, seems like I got some time on my hands again... I will try to script some events regarding Belgian volunteers and such over the weekend.

ok, excellent

 

[unmerged(14683)]

Originally posted by Generalisimo
so, they wanted to swallow the entire Slovakia?

No, much smaller claims. But it would be hard to simulate in in HoI, since provinces are too big (same case as with reclaiming Cieszyn Silesia in 1938). Some resources and napower should do.

Whole idea is quite interesting, but you have to keep in mind that polish public opinion was REALLY STRONGLY against seceding any territories, no matter what Hitler could promise as a refund. After over 100 years of occupation and many wars and uprisings polish situation was quite similar to Irish. Do you believe, that Ireland would join Alies if Brittain promised them, let's say, some isles on Irish Sea and at the same time demanded more land added to british Ulster?

No "some dissent" Steel, but HUGE dissent hit for loosing Gdansk, and very, very slim chance that Polish government accepts that (maybe 2 stages of negotiations - first event "Germany suggest Anticommintern Pact" (polish default "No"), and if "yes" chosen, then second stage ("Accept seceding Danzig" - polish default "No").

This way we have 5% on the first stage (Poland starts negotiations), and 5% (Poland accepts German demans) on the second one. This would be more real.

 

[Steel]

Dissent has a quadruple impact by creating a risk of the government falling (good in this case ), immediate loss of IC, need for higher CG production to recover IC and loss of combat effectiveness. Giving very high dissent to an AI nation is likely to knock it out of the game as build/R&D queues never complete, dissent is never cleared, supply requirements can't be met and the army collapses in first battle.

About using 2 stages for the event, I was toying with the idea but 2x5% choices makes it so unlikely that it will only ever be a human Poland that would go down this route. IIRC the diplomatic system in HOI also tends to make allied nations likely to give in to demands, so if Poland enters the Axis then Germany could easily demand Danzig and get it while just ignoring the second event.

Ideally the Danzig question should simply be dropped and the claim removed, with Germany settling for lands farther east instead. As mentioned before this has issues with how the German AI will fight the USSR though (ie land border needed).

Perhaps the best solution is to defer the secession of Danzig until the Fall of France, thus the Polish dissent over losing Danzig is tempered by their choice of a strong ally and growing confidence that a war in the east will be victorious. The dissent could be in the region of 20-30 points but not more I think... Optionally there could be follow-on events every 6 or 12 months with an additional 5-10 dissent if Poland has not yet received lands in the east (thus putting a little pressure on Germany to go to war with USSR early while Poland is still capable of fighting).

 

[brandnew70x7]

Originally posted by Vulture
Ok, seems like I got some time on my hands again... I will try to script some events regarding Belgian volunteers and such over the weekend.

Wouldn't that fall into the lines of the western european volunteers event?

 

[unmerged(14683)]

Originally posted by Steel
About using 2 stages for the event, I was toying with the idea but 2x5% choices makes it so unlikely that it will only ever be a human Poland that would go down this route.(...)

Yeah, that's my point. It was exactly so unlikely.
First stage would be just invitation to negotiations, without real effect (only triggers second event with real demands some time later). The point is - try not to create extremely unhistorical options.
I repeat - there was no chance that Poland would accept German proposition, no matter what they would give as a recompensate. In 1918 Poland had 4 uprisings against Germany (3 in Silesia and one in Poznan) and was very, very anti-german, not only anti-nazi, oriented.
If the polish player is interested in joining Axis, then it's his choice, but we should minimaze chance, than Polish AI would do that.

 

[Generalisimo]

Originally posted by Copper Nicus
Yeah, that's my point. It was exactly so unlikely.
First stage would be just invitation to negotiations, without real effect (only triggers second event with real demands some time later). The point is - try not to create extremely unhistorical options.
I repeat - there was no chance that Poland would accept German proposition, no matter what they would give as a recompensate. In 1918 Poland had 4 uprisings against Germany (3 in Silesia and one in Poznan) and was very, very anti-german, not only anti-nazi, oriented.
If the polish player is interested in joining Axis, then it's his choice, but we should minimaze chance, than Polish AI would do that.

ok, so we better use the two event approach

in case they accept, do you think we can give Poland 1 province from Slovakia? which? and which province from Romania?

also, check my other post about the Baltic States, do you think Poland will want some part of those nations?

 

[Steel]

The Unholy Alliance (USSR joins Axis) is IIRC 90% ("A" choice in a 3-option event) + 5% ("C" choice in a 3-option event) and IMHO at least as obscure as Poland joining the Axis I've seen it a single time in over a hundred handsoff games. Has anybody else *ever* seen the Unholy Alliance?

Correct my maths if I'm wrong here but (to turn the argument around) I think your proposal is that it should be 18 times more likely for the Unholy Alliance to occur as for Poland to decide to join the Axis. If we go down the line of reasoning you suggest we should then probably remove the Unholy Alliance (Paradox event), the Bitter Peace (Paradox) and the Kiri Project (mine), maybe other events as well. Also remember that there's a 1 in 20 chance of Poland caving in to German demands over Danzig anyway in the "Danzig or War event" with only 5 points of dissent (!):


command = { type = secedeprovince which = GER value = 645 }
command = { type = trigger which = 2029 }
command = { type = dissent value = 5 }


By comparison, my proposed event structure is draconian in its effects on Poland.

Anyway, don't get me wrong - I don't want this to occur in every game, but making it for example choice A (German offer) + choice B (Polish Acceptance) + choice A (Polish join Axis, only occurs when France defeated) would be less than 1 game in 20. I think that's an acceptable percentage from a gameplay point of view (it's a historical game which caters to alternate history as well) but also given that Poland had an interest in restoring pre-partition borders (lands in Lithuania and Byelorussia), had more recently fought with Russia, had already signed the 1934 treaty with Germany and (in alternate history) Germany has shown great military potential by defeating France.

If you are really opposed to this, what mitigating events should be included (making things difficult for Germany) to bring Poland to the negotiating table? Claims in Byelorussia, Ukraine and Lithuania are obvious. Slovakia has been mentioned, maybe Romania as well. The sticking point is Gdansk, I'd love to let Poland keep it if but I think it would break Germany's war effort... What if Gdansk is returned to Poland when USSR is defeated? Ie the German ownership is limited to the time period from Fall of France to end of war with USSR, making it a "military corridor" rather than actually saying Poland gives in to the demand.

 

[unmerged(14683)]

Originally posted by Steel
Also remember that there's a 1 in 20 chance of Poland caving in to German demands over Danzig anyway in the "Danzig or War event" with only 5 points of dissent (!):

I know, this event is screwed. Too low dissent. But hopefully after adding your events we will change it that in case of polish alliance with UK Poland will always answer "no".

Originally posted by Steel

Anyway, don't get me wrong - I don't want this to occur in every game, but making it for example choice A (German offer) + choice B (Polish Acceptance) + choice A (Polish join Axis, only occurs when France defeated) would be less than 1 game in 20.

Anyway, chance for Polish neutrality is about 4,7% (0,95 x 0,05). You may think this is not much, but I think otherwise.
Ok, maybe I had too many test games, but I've seen Chechoslovakia not giving Sudeten, Chechoslovakia in Axis, Poland seceding Gdansk and so on. The main problem with this events is that they are critical for starting WW II - Germany for example simply ignore Chechs or go stupid when Poland gives what they want. If you want to do this, you have to really think about cosequences to the all main AI's.

Originally posted by Steel

(..)but also given that Poland had an interest in restoring pre-partition borders (lands in Lithuania and Byelorussia), had more recently fought with Russia(...)

Sorry, but it's very simplified view of Polish history. Poland was not really interested in Belorussia - after war of 1920 Poland decided to leave Minsk for USSR because there were very few polish citizens. The same thing with Baltic States - Poland actively supported Latvia in their fight for independence. Some more complications were with Lithuania - but Wilno was mostly everything Poles wanted from them. Maybe if polish National Democrats Party were in power, then this could happen, but not with 1939 goverment.

Originally posted by Steel

The sticking point is Gdansk, I'd love to let Poland keep it if but I think it would break Germany's war effort... What if Gdansk is returned to Poland when USSR is defeated?

Nah, this time the problem is Germans will to return it. They would not do it - and it was not only "corridor" claim, they actally wanted to get also Danzig city and part of Silesia.

Conclusion - we could do this event, but it should have possibility similar to Unholly Alliance. Really. About claims - I would prepare something tomorrow. Maybe (Dmowski polish National Democrats Party leader) plan from 1918 would do...

 

[Generalisimo]

Like Copper Nicus said, the germans (Hitler and his buddies ) really wanted Danzig, so, i think there is no posibility that Danzig is returned to Poland.

@Steel: i have never seen the Unholy alliance
just once in an MP game.


@Copper Nicus:
"About claims - I would prepare something tomorrow. Maybe (Dmowski polish National Democrats Party leader) plan from 1918 would do..."
remember to give germans a "corridor" in the baltic states to invade the USSR...

 

[Steel]

Originally posted by Copper Nicus
Ok, maybe I had too many test games, but I've seen Chechoslovakia not giving Sudeten, Chechoslovakia in Axis, Poland seceding Gdansk and so on. The main problem with this events is that they are critical for starting WW II - Germany for example simply ignore Chechs or go stupid when Poland gives what they want. If you want to do this, you have to really think about cosequences to the all main AI's.

In my first game of HOI ever (the "joyful" days of 1.01...) Austria opted for alliance rather than Anschluss. I was a little surprised but eventually figured out I could just demand territory through the diplo screen and as a loyal ally they gave me all their country

I think by now I've seen every possible outcome in the Paradox events (but not by far all the C.O.R.E. outcomes). It would be nice to be able to assign a percentage to each choice in an event (choice_a = 50%) and even better if it took into account external factors (political alignment, relative army strength etc) but we have to work with what Paradox gave us.

Sorry, but it's very simplified view of Polish history.

That's why I was keen on your input. I'm just a code slave with no real knowledge of history... The discussions we have here make the events better and are a good way of learning more. I don't think there's any elections for Poland so unfortunately the default 1936 government is what we're stuck with for now at least.

Conclusion - we could do this event, but it should have possibility similar to Unholly Alliance. Really. About claims - I would prepare something tomorrow. Maybe (Dmowski polish National Democrats Party leader) plan from 1918 would do...

Ok, so choice A (German offer) + choice B (Polish Acceptance) + choice A (Polish join Axis, only occurs when France defeated) then

 

[unmerged(14683)]

Originally posted by Steel
Ok, so choice A (German offer) + choice B (Polish Acceptance) + choice A (Polish join Axis, only occurs when France defeated) then

The more I think about it, the less I like idea of this event. I double checked my historical sources and I really didn't found anything that could suggest, that German proposition (not real one, just few words during the talks) was taken seriously. It's something like Rudolf Hess event - not a chance.

One more thing - in Unholly Alliance there is the C option used by both sides ("suggest UA" and "Let the world tremble!") so it's not 4,7 %, but 0,25% chance for it - that why it's so rare.

 

[SykoNurse]

Copper Nicus, would Poland have considered Danzig becoming a "Free City" again?

 

[unmerged(14683)]

Originally posted by SykoNurse
Copper Nicus, would Poland have considered Danzig becoming a "Free City" again?

What do you mean?
As far as I know, Danzig (city, not the HoI province) WAS "Freistadt". Poland had small outpost with about 100 soldiers at Westerplatte - whole administration, police and stuff was fully independent from Poland. Even Polish Fleet was not stationed in Gdansk after naval base in Gdynia and Hel were built.
In Danzig NSDAP was legal party - it would be very unlikely in Poland.

 

[SykoNurse]

I wasn´t thinking in HoI terms...sorry, to peacefully thought.
I had in mind that german and polish population lived fairly well together before the war. The thought was to make Gdansk an independant city instead of a Free City in case Poland and Germany wanted to work something out in negotiations. Not Freistadt but Unabhängige Stadt or something. Poland AND Germany would have military access to please the politicians. That move prolly is unacceptable as it wastes one of the valuable country tags AND is far fetched.

 

[Steel]

Military access would probably not be enough to make Germany fight in the East, generally the AI doesn't handle MA very well. Maybe if the AI is improved in 1.04 it would be possible...

 

[unmerged(14683)]

Originally posted by SykoNurse
I wasn´t thinking in HoI terms...sorry, to peacefully thought.
I had in mind that german and polish population lived fairly well together before the war. The thought was to make Gdansk an independant city instead of a Free City in case Poland and Germany wanted to work something out in negotiations. Not Freistadt but Unabhängige Stadt or something. Poland AND Germany would have military access to please the politicians. That move prolly is unacceptable as it wastes one of the valuable country tags AND is far fetched.

I don't think Hitler would accept that... Besides, Germany had more demands on Poland - Silesia (in HoI terms - Cieszyn), Poznan...
Tomorrow I'll post corrected version of Danzig or war event - it would give 100% chance for war if Poland is allied with UK, and if they are not, then chance would be same as usual (but Poland would get higher dissent and allignment change if they secede Danzig).
And if they secede Danzig, then we could think about next events (possibly after German victory in France)- German suggestion to join Tripartite Pact (limited pact - military access, full pact - alliance). In both cases Poland should give Germany Silesia for promise of some gains on East and Bessarabia (and Odessa probably). But it would in conflict with independent Ukraine event (it should be put to sleep?)...

IMO, it's much more realistic.