Cross-post. *bleh* "No more than 1 post in 30 seconds...* Most irritating rule in this forum

Originally posted by Engineer
Hmmmmm, some recommendations:
1) In the trigger Japan and China should be at war and Japan should have control of Shanhai.
2) In the description it goes so far as to commit the Japanese to apologizing. I would put that decision down into choice A & B. Also, I would probably add some background that the western river patrols dated from the early 20th century as a consequence of the Boxer Rebellion (See Max Boot, The Savage Wars of Peace).
3) Jap Choice A: An apology would cause Japan to lose face and anger the military factions. At least some diplomatic influence should be lost and perhaps a dissent point hit would be reasonable.
4) Jap Choice B: No dissent, but this is a slap in the face to the Western Powers and especially the USA. A bigger diplomatic influence hit is appropriate here.
5) On the USA side, Choice A (historical) would give a mild War Entry bump. This took place at almost the same time as the Nanking Massacre so the two events are confounded in the historical US reaction. I would recommend going back and knocking down the Massacre reaction by a point if this would have a two point impact. Historically, the western governments also withdrew their patrols from Yangtze and this apology gave them the diplomatic room to climb down and forestall additional incidents.
I would recommend including a voluntary withdrawel of the patrols as part of the event reaction.
If the Japanese took choice B, then I would expect the US to go ape with a bigger war entry bump. The US would have its own set of reactions.
Choice B-A: Recall the US ambassador. Keep patrols in place, expend a diplomatic influence point, possibility of second event after Nanking falls to Japan.
Choice B-B: Same as A, plus amend the Neutrality Act to provide US aid to China. Give China aid. (Add Chinese event to accept aid).
Choice B-C: Agree to Japanese demands, US forces withdraw, US dissent +1 in anger at administration