Well, tried several times now and just can't seem to make things line up correctly. Here is kinda a brief run down of what I encountered in various game somewhat in order of how I played them:
1) sold ships to soon and forgot impact on making alliances...never could ally Hungary ..no go
2) one I describe above. Otto'd Dow'd me (i think their 3rd war) and Wall and Hungary joined. Pretty good start with big battle in Selenik that we won, but then Venice Dow'd. (Note to self - do not embargo Venice) I felt fairly confidant I would have won that war if not for Venice though
3) Probably one of the most bizarre things i've see and really a bug IMO. Ottos DOW QQ first months into the game. Well those two don't have borders or access at that point. War went on for years with Otto stacks sitting in Greece and QQ not getting through AQ/Treb, ofc. So that was 5 years there of nothing, so timings were all off.
4) Got my alliances setup..some decent events.. Ottos got in an odd war with Dulkadir while they were at war with Mams, who then vassaled them and dragged them into the Otto war. AQ in separate war with Mams. Actually would have been a great time to try an offensive war, as Otto manpower dried out, but this crazy favors system prevents that early. Then Otto's monarch dies leaving at least 10 year regency. Decided to keep going and try to take advantage of a war Venice was dragged into due to French alliance. I would take Naxos and Athens claim on Negropointe, while France would dishonor. War started great. Sieged they stuff. Ticking war stuff. After couple of years, French war ends and Venice is somehow immediately able to make new allies AND drag them into the war..complete BS. And Hungary drags me into a war with Poland, who just so happens to time moving a stack down just as I'm to wipe a stack of Knights. *poof* and Poland sits on Morea fort with tiny Knights stack and helps the Knights take Morea. It would have been so easy to win that war but that Venice ally BS was crap...the war was already going on 3 years.
(oh..and Ottos allied Aragon of all things in that game..ha..but I could see IW coming in near future..still. Aragon/Ottos!? you gotta be kidding me)
a few other no goes as well
Point being, and absolutely not intended as a slight to the guide from oscar, but there is still a great deal of luck involved, so expect to play this one over and over until things line up. I will keep trying.
I'm curious how many runs oscar had at the guide before things worked out