Bloodless Coup vs. Civil War?

[Evan05]

Hello. So I was thinking about Hearts of Iron and the coup/civil war system and it got me thinking. What exactly determines if a bloodless coup happens or if the country breaks out in a total civil war?

For those of you who don't know, I'm referring to something like this:

There's no civil war, no destruction. The country simply changes overnight.

I'm assuming a bloodless coup will be a lot more desirable, since it's both faster and more importantly you don't destroy your armies, so I'm guessing there is probably something extra you have to do (or maybe have extremely high ideological support from the population) to ensure a civil war doesn't erupt.

I tried reading over the 34th Dev Diary: https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/foru...velopment-diary-20th-of-november-2015.891939/

It talks about Coups and Civil Wars, but it didn't really say what had to be done. It did however say that all foreign-backed coups do end up in a civil war (which is helpful, as it weakens the country even if the side you supported lost). So does anyone know the answer? Did a Dev somewhere state how to avoid a civil war, and how difficult a blood coup would be to achieve compared to a winning a civil war?

 

[Lither]

I don't know any more than you do.

If I had to guess, and I hope this is the system in, it'll be based on party popularity. More popular the couping party = more likely to succeed bloodlessly (such as the October Revolution or 1941 Iraq). If a society is extremely heavily divided (such as Spain), higher chance of breaking into a civil war.
So a forced, unpopular coup would be unlikely to succeed and need significant international support to win the ensuing civil war.
A chance for a coup, especially an unpopular one, to just be shutdown early as it's rooted out and removed, would be nice.

Additionally, I hope divisions and leaders have a random chance to "defect" to the opposite side during a civil war, based again on party popularity.

Just my two cents.

 

[Septawn]

I believe that a coup is initiated by an opposing country and a civil war is the result of natural factors (i.e. the player pushing the country towards an opposing ideology). I wouldn't be surprised if a coup attempt becomes a civil war by an RNG depending on popularity, military power etc.

Edit: Some civil wars, like Spain, are historical events that are apparently unavoidable.

 

[GhostKiller01]

Depending on the Civil War sides, I'd prefer if it were a civil war if the sides are against my ideology or if the ruling party was of my ideology. If the rebelling side is of my ideology, I'd be great if it were a coup. That's pragmatism at its best...

 

[Deathshead419]

What I'm most curious about is if Fascists or Communists can be victorious in a general election or referendum.

In this screen shot it mentions how the communists were denied a referendum, triggering a civil war. This raises the obvious question about whether or not the player can decide to hold said referendum and peacefully transition or if a revolution or violent coup will always be necessary for governmental changes.

 

[vota dc]

It depends on party support and party equipment. If they have 90% support but bad equipment the other 10% well armed guys will try a civil war, same if you have low support but good equipment. If you have both you have high chance of a bloodless coup if you are in hurry you may have a civil war and the faction you support may start with only a province!

And yes bloodless coup are supposed to be more desiderable: country ready from the start, less world tension, no need to rebuild, more manpower. Only downside is less experienced units.

 

[Anichent]

I believe that a coup is initiated by an opposing country and a civil war is the result of natural factors (i.e. the player pushing the country towards an opposing ideology). I wouldn't be surprised if a coup attempt becomes a civil war by an RNG depending on popularity, military power etc.

Edit: Some civil wars, like Spain, are historical events that are apparently unavoidable.

While that sounds right, it can't be....because in WWW the Trotskyists (or however its spelled) couped in USSR.
Sadly no one really talked about it they just mentioned it happened

 

[GhostKiller01]

It might have to do with party organization or the political power of the faction. A coup happens if you run out of political power? It says in the screenshot that officials placed the leader under house arrest and entered negotiations with the rebels, so it might be a great idea if in WWW Germany would stage a coup in the UK, as it might result in a destructive Civil War that would decimate the resources of the UK or even turn it to its side. A Civil War in the UK would be best for Germany. If the UK loses its colonies to rebels, the entire war machine of the UK would crumble, even if temporarily having lost the influx of resources, the industries would help the revoltees greatly into making a sort of standoff between superior ground forces in the colonies versus the superior navy of the homeland...

 

[Septawn]

While that sounds right, it can't be....because in WWW the Trotskyists (or however its spelled) couped in USSR.
Sadly no one really talked about it they just mentioned it happened

In the stream Johan says that it's an event that occurs if the Soviets don't Purge, but there is a bug in the build they are playing that makes it trigger regardless. I suppose that is an ahistoric avoidable event coup.

 

[Will Steel]

I have a question - was it possible to launch coups and convert a nation to your ideology in HoI3? And how long did it usually take? The whole game until 1948 or earlier?

I have seen someone who converted Mexico once, but I have no clue how. I am asking because coups in HoI4 right now are way too fast even for beta build.

 

[BBBD316]

IN HOI3 you generally supported your party via spies and also you could use diplomacy to bring them closer. So if you do that to the US as the Nazis you get Charles Limbergh(sp?) and the America First party in power I think from memory, I think you could do this to the allies and communists, but it generally takes an election to swap parties over. Once again this is from memory.

Well if you put a communist minister in your cabinet as a neutral I think they say it will be 12 months before you could attempt to switch, it could be shorter if you are being targeted by the Russians,etc.

With the Norway example I believe that Johan just flipped them by console. Most nations, in Europe anyway, had internal fascist/communist groups so a year for them to plan to take over/ attempt to take over is probably right.

 

[Anichent]

I hope its kind of an either-or thing.

Like if the fascists in a democratic country somehow have huge support, but no representation in government an no election looming, either a successful coup, a failed coup, or a civil war could be triggered. It ads an element of chance to it that way we don't know exactly what will always be the result of our actions. Sometimes investment can fail, sometimes it can be hugely successful, and sometimes....war.

It would also be realistically fitting since some countries did invest in this way in their ideology in other countries, and more often than not it failed. Perfect example would be Italian plans for a fascist independent Catalonia which collapsed before the civil war due to poor leadership.

 

[Will Steel]

Well, if an ideology is popular in the nation but not actually represented in politics, they should launch a coup after garnering support. If they are represented, they should keep trying to get themselves elected aggressively while still preparing for coups.

After all, Nazis took over Germany not by a coup but by winning an election.

 

[Anichent]

After all, Nazis took over Germany not by a coup but by winning an election.

Winning an election doesn't make the country a fascist state or a communist state, they'll still democracies. I think the 3-way political system is more about government style than ruling party.

 

[aitaituo]

After all, Nazis took over Germany not by a coup but by winning an election.

Eh, it's a bit more complicated than that. Pressure from the military was a large factor in Hitler's appointment to Chancellor, which was in turn what allowed Hitler to pass the Enabling Act. Before his appointment, the NSDAP was growing in popularity, but couldn't hope to win enough seats to legally transform the Republic into the Reich. And they still didn't do it all that legally after his appointment.

 

[martaxsas]

I think the civil war breaks out when foreign influences are trying to change your goverment. If the opposition party tries to go for a coup you then decide to switch parties or fight in a civil war. That's what understood from the DDs