BiB's AAR

[grumbold]

One further thought: for those who think the US turned turtle too early - what would you do if all your major capital ships had been destroyed or were effectively limited to coastal waters where landbased airpower can protect them from everything except concerted submarine attack? If its going to take two years to build a new carrier fleet even without fear of nighttime bombing raids disrupting or damaging production, why not declare peace until you're ready to go and retake what you consider to be yours?

 

[unmerged(3352)]

Ok, allow me to move over my (somewhat edited) arguments to this thread.

Since I dont know anything about how the battles work in HoI or what units do what and what technology advance does what, then I'm not talking about that. Even though the notion that Japanese marines with plenty of air support would defeat Soviet tank armies sound like comic book warfare, I'm not commenting on that simply because I dont know anything about it.

BUT from this aar it is obvious that the ai has some serious issues.

First on the political level.

China suing for peace with Japan? And ChiCom deciding to kick off the civil war a couple of years early and attack the nationalists instead of the Japs....wtf is that?

(Explanation:
The level of hatred between China and Japan is hard to comprehend and/or explain. The notion that China would capitulate to Japan is extremely far fetched. The idea that chinese would rather fight each other than the Japanese is ludicrous)

US suing for peace with Japan and accepting Japanese control of the Philippines AND Panama AND Auletians AND Hawaii? Is there ANYONE who thinks that would happen?

(Explanation:
Instead of starting a rather pointless argument about what the consequences on public opinion in the US might be if scenario a or scenario b happened, let me just say this. The level of hatred the Pearl Harbour attack created in the US was enough to make US public opinion accept and even applaud the fire bombings of Tokyo and two atomic bombs dropped on Japanese soil.

Add the invasion of Hawaii, Aluletians, Panama, bombings of Los Angeles and whathaveyou...lets just say that I disagree with your thesis that this would break the US will to fight. Personally I think it would only strengthen the resolve. In this aar, the war started for the US with a Japanese Pearl Harbour style attack...albeit the target was Guam.)

UK suing for a separate peace with Germany when the Isles are not threatened at all? When Canada, Australia, India, South Africa is still alive and well? Does anyone else have a problem with seeing that happen?

Then on the "operational" level.
Italians storm through Africa? Hmm..what's wrong with this picture.

US massing the fleet at Guam? Yeah..why not. "Lets put our entire pacific fleet as close to the potential enemy as possible".

US losing the Panama canal? Oh, but wait it was probably against the same marines that killed off that soviet tank army.

Japanese cavalry/infantry armies defeat the Chinese? Take a look at relative manpower.

 

[unmerged(941)]

Originally posted by Hortlund


hehe, point well taken. Let me get back to you on the subject in two weeks

And let me take this opportunity now to challenge you to a multiplayer game with me as US and you as Japan and see how your navy will do

hey got room for one more player ????

 

[unmerged(3352)]

Originally posted by grumbold
One further thought: for those who think the US turned turtle too early - what would you do if all your major capital ships had been destroyed or were effectively limited to coastal waters where landbased airpower can protect them from everything except concerted submarine attack? If its going to take two years to build a new carrier fleet even without fear of nighttime bombing raids disrupting or damaging production, why not declare peace until you're ready to go and retake what you consider to be yours?

1) retake Panama. (Should not be a problem since I'm assuming that I have more land based aircraft than the Japanese have carrier based.
2) Use superior industry to research and rebuild fleet on east coast
3) Attack and destroy Japan

It doesnt make sense to surrender and then declare war again. That sounds like it is outside the scope of the game (time-frame-wise).

 

[unmerged(6779)]

Originally posted by Hortlund
The notion that China would capitulate to Japan is extremely far fetched. The idea that chinese would rather fight each other than the Japanese is ludicrous)

You know China is a realy big and varied country, I doubt that every Chinese had at this time the same opinion towards Japan.

 

[IEX Totalview]

Originally posted by Simons3


hey got room for one more player ????

I call Belgium!

 

[unmerged(1650)]

What makes me wonder is fact that BiB created bigest navy in the world in just few years, japs did not have industry base strong enough to do it, and BiB wrote that he did not invest in industry, but even if huge navy would be built it is hord to belive that there would not be a proper reaction of UK and USA, some kind of race, and please dont tell me about isolationist president, cause none politiciaan in 1930-1940 in usa could get and keep power while alowing another naion to break washigton treaty and treat american cost. FDR was not the only men in USA that beliwed they have to fight.

 

[grumbold]

Originally posted by Hortlund
UK suing for a separate peace with Germany when the Isles are not threatened at all? When Canada, Australia, India, South Africa is still alive and well? Does anyone else have a problem with seeing that happen?

We have no real information as to the strength of the "threat". A victorious Germany probably has withdrawn all but token elements of its airpower from the USSR and focussed it all on the UK. Instead of all its economic power being directed at replacing tanks destroyed on the Eastern front it is building bigger and better bombers, fighters and submarines and has Russian oil to fuel them with. If a British supply convoy hasn't reached port for months because they're being sunk, who cares what the state of SA, Oz and Canada are, the British economy is ruined. India is already mentioned as being in popular unrest and needing resources invested to calm it down. We didn't get an Operation Sealion, even though this is precisely the sort of conditions under which it might be possible to make it work. Sooner or later I really DO want to see an AAR where someone has a serious attempt at it.

Then on the "operational" level.
Italians storm through Africa? Hmm..what's wrong with this picture.

There was so little detail given that we have no idea what happened so any comments would be pure speculation. If the allies did not defend their provinces they would be relatively trivial to capture. No-one is suggesting Italy could keep a lid on native unrest and make them productive and loyal.

misquote
I am the United States of America. Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair

Yeah, right. If you haven't got a means of getting your troops to where they can fight effectively, then it doesn't matter how kickass they might be on arrival. Personally I don't believe that the Americans would have been prepared to sustain the level of casualties that the Russians took just to prosecute a foreign war, even if they could sail them across to Europe and invade successfully. Now if Hitler landed his troops in New York, fair enough.

 

[BiB]

Originally posted by Marek
What makes me wonder is fact that BiB created bigest navy in the world in just few years, japs did not have industry base strong enough to do it, and BiB wrote that he did not invest in industry, but even if huge navy would be built it is hord to belive that there would not be a proper reaction of UK and USA, some kind of race, and please dont tell me about isolationist president, cause none politiciaan in 1930-1940 in usa could get and keep power while alowing another naion to break washigton treaty and treat american cost. FDR was not the only men in USA that beliwed they have to fight.

Where do u get from that I didnt invest in industry now?!

 

[grumbold]

Originally posted by Hortlund


2) Use superior industry to research and rebuild fleet on east coast

It doesnt make sense to surrender and then declare war again. That sounds like it is outside the scope of the game (time-frame-wise).

Assume you can retake Panama quickly and easily. With an isolationist in the White House, presumably elected by a pro-isolationist populace, how do you then maintain enthusiasm for a war for two years while your new fleet is built when you can score no victories? I find it far easier to accept a peace of convenience while the military recover and prepare, but that's just me. I don't doubt that the US will try and get their own back eventually, but they could easily decide to pick a time and a place more to their liking.

 

[Sparrow]

Who says the US is out of the game? Did the game stop and declare the Axis victors?

Maybe the AI is simply rebuilding, trying to setup some alliances in South America along with Britain to help the war effort, etc. With some grand plan to come back in two or three years. Who said the AI Germany is going to just sit around and sit on it's laurels? I'd be very interested to see if this is just everyone taking some time to rebuild before continuing the war. To me it seems the war isn't finished unless BiB has received the final tally screen.

What really saddens me is the hostility shown towards a Japanese victory. Get a grip people.

 

[Sparrow]

Wasn't Britain pretty much maxxed out building warships, requiring most of it's merchant hulls to be built in the US and Canada for the most part? Didn't India have some ship yards building merchant ships?

 

[Generalisimo]

Originally posted by BiB


Where do u get from that I didnt invest in industry now?!

i have read that BiB invested in industry, so BiB is right....

 

[Earl Uhtred]

Won't you play on to '48? The game's just half done

 

[BiB]

Originally posted by snuggs
Won't you play on to '48? The game's just half done

Nah, there was a new patch and I started a new game.

 

[unmerged(1650)]

come one i can belive you created very good navy, maybe best in the world, ok that i can beliwe, but it is hard to beliwe it became bigest as well. And all this without proper reaction of UK and USA. Japannies GDP was still one third of british in 1930-1940.

 

[unmerged(7789)]

As for the AI's ability I'm withholding my judgement until after I have the game on my hard drive and have played a few games for myself. In the meantime though I'd like to thank you for a very enjoyable AAR BiB. It's been a lot of fun, and I look forward to reading more by you.

 

[unmerged(11365)]

Originally posted by Hortlund
UK suing for a separate peace with Germany when the Isles are not threatened at all? When Canada, Australia, India, South Africa is still alive and well? Does anyone else have a problem with seeing that happen?

I've got no problem whatsoever with it. A lot of it depends on the political leadership of the country. Also, if your people are starving and the leader of the country is more interested in keeping the empire intact than winning a war of principle you could likely see a negotiated peace. Honestly, we don't have a copy of the game yet and we really don't have detailed info to go on for making judgments in the game. Calm down and wait till the 19th!

 

[Keynes]

An AI for a complex strategy game will never "beat" (ie match or exceed historical results) a high quality experienced player. Period. The technology simply doesnt exist yet. Consider a game with a simple rule set that is amenable to simple brute force algorithms like chess; it took decades for the best progammers in the world to make an AI that could play competently. Now consider a game whose rule set is probably about 50-100 times more complicated. Cant be done. So if you want to play a complex historical strategy game with a non-cheating AI, learn to live with the fact that you will outperform historical results once you get the hang of the system.

What a decent contemporary AI can do is provide a challenge superior to that of a bad human player. Based solely on the incomplete info from the AAR's, this AI clearly qualifies. In a well-designed board game like A3R or WiF (the latter which seems to be a spiritual forebear of the HoI system in certain respects), a good experienced player will wipe the floor with a bad inexperienced player to a greater degree than BiB beat on the AI in his AAR - even when the game starts in 1939 and not in 1936 as BiB's game did.

The ideal of course would be a non-cheating AI that plays as well as a very good experienced human player. Unfortunately, we will have to wait 10-20 years for technological advance to get such a game. In the meantime, one can try HoI as is. Yes you will beat the AI much of the time, but there will still be challenge (how quickly/how much). You can mod the game to handicap your country or your side. Or do multiplayer. Or be a purist and refuse to touch the game unless the AI is an electronic Manstein, and stick to try to finding 3-4 other human beings in your local area that fully grasp the massive "World in Flames" etc rule set and are willing to commit half their lives to playing the board game.

 

[unmerged(5228)]

Originally posted by Hortlund


1) retake Panama. (Should not be a problem since I'm assuming that I have more land based aircraft than the Japanese have carrier based.
2) Use superior industry to research and rebuild fleet on east coast
3) Attack and destroy Japan

1)How are you going to reach Panama if the the Japanese have fleet supremacy, and the Germans are apparently sinking anything that puts out to sea? I suppose you could try and invade Mexico and go by land, but from everything I have read, I was given to understand that democracies in HOI will not eaaily be able to declare war on peaceful nations. I don't recall reading anything it Bib's AAR about Mexico's bellicose foreign policy and it annexing its neighbors left and right, so I am going to assume that the US government is going to have a hard time justifying hostilities south of the border.

2)What superior industry?

Originally posted by BiB

No it isn't. For one in the game the Axis had surpassed the Allies at war (aka the USA only) in industrial output.

This quote seems to imply that the USA's industrial superiority, is not in fact, all that superior at the moment. BiB and the other Axis nations have had since 1936 to build up their war machine while the US apparently kicked FDR out of office and elected an isolationist ostrich who probably buried his head in the ground while the whole world went down the drain.

3) How exactly is the US going to attack Japan? Us American's are not known for our encyclopedic knowledge of geography, but I feel safe venturing a guess that I won't be able to find the "Japan-North America landbridge" on any (credible) map you could provide.

Since BiB has stated that he has focused heavily on fleet research, I would think the US could easily defeat Japan in a large land battle. However, the US fleet has now dropped anchor at Davey Jones Locker, and I fail to see how America can force Japan into a large ground battles. The United States cannot reach Japan, therefore it cannot destroy Japan.