Unless you're a trader or quick colonizer, Military Drill or Patron of the Arts should be your first pick.
National Bank is a worthless national idea since Heir to the Throne. If you're having problems with inflation, you should take Patron of the Arts. One level 5 master of the mint does the same as national bank. If you're still having problems with inflation after three masters of the mint, you're doing something wrong.
Patron of the Arts can also do the same as shrew commerce practice, national bureaucracy and, to a certain degree, national trade policy. Building ships probably is not your most important thing to do early game and if you need a strong army you should take military drill. National bureaucracy is not really worth it. 5/130 % is a tax increase of only 3,8%, making it a better decision to invest in trade. Colonial ventures may be useful if you're in a slow tech group and there's plenty of free provinces to colonize near you. Merchant adventures is not that useful and it may be more efficient to mint some money to set up your trade. If you need that much merchants to stay in COTs, take NTP or hire an advisor to increase your trade.
During certain parts of the game, Patron of the Art may become more or less useless, but it will become useful again, sooner or later.