Jomini said:
Ambassador, under which version of the game did you do this?
1.09. Otherwise, I wouldn't be as much concerned with Civil Wars.
Jomini said:
Interesting, you had the 1 in a 100 game where England doesn't covert away from Catholicism, and beyond that managed to get enough Catholic territory to keep it Catholic after the edict of Tolerance?
No, I had to meddle. I took some of their protestant provinces for a time, helped them take northern (catholic) french provinces. That way, they had much more catholic provinces than protestant ones. And stayed catholic. Once they had enough colonial cities and converted several of their remaining protestant provinces (
including Anglia), I gave them their provinces back. And took french provinces in another war, after a few more conversions of english provinces. Luck has nothing to do here, only my meddlings.
Jomini said:
I know that. However you still face the problem that they will give you at best 5 provinces per round on average. If the Mughals take both Ganges and Kutch; you will burn an entire round taking at MOST one other province. Given that the last round can only take the capital you are going to be looking at patheticly weak Mughals who don't span from Afghanistan down into India. Again one might be fortunate enough to have sufficiently small states here that they can be killed in 4 rounds, but it will not be common and easy.
They will give you more than five provinces. They might give you only five in some offers, if those are their rich provinces, but their poorest provinces are given en masse. Just wait for the offers, don't rush on the first one, and don't ask them.
Jomini said:
Which becomes utterly irrelevant the moment you have your first civil war. Yes a skilled player can avoid civil war, and likewise even deal with a major crisis; but again this is something I'd hesitate to suggest one try for their FIRST WC.
MP is irrelevant in determining the size of your army. Economy, CCs and manus and grain (
produced and traded) give a much higher support level than MP, which represents usually 25% in my experience (with CC multipliers). Going from Naval/Quality to Land/Quantity only triples MP, and this would only increase your support limit by half. So, you don't get that much more troops.
Jomini said:
Irrelevant. I don't care about fighting the Asians. You will handily crush them with only attritionary issues to worry about. You will handily do more fighting against REBELS than all of Asia put togethor. There you will have no CRT advantage nor will you have any morale advantage unless you opt for playing the maintenance trick.
Yes indeed. It's one way. But you don't get that much rebels either, as I'll show you below.
Jomini said:
You will have literally hundreds of provinces with at least 3% RR. That translates into multiple armies of rebels every month you need to go put down (given as you have left them no other state to wander into).
There're approximately 900 land provinces in-game. You already start with over 200, maybe closing to 250-300, whose RR is then under 0, since they're either of your religion/culture or owned for more than 30 years. There're approximately 200-400 provinces that are from your vassals, who were catholics, and so RR is really limited at 3% once you've DA them. This leaves in Asia, barring Siberia, less than 200 provinces whose religion might be harder to tolerate. That's for indicating the numbers.
Now, 3% RR is 3% chances that a revolt will fire in the province in one year. take thirty provinces, a territory the size of France, and it's one revolt per year on average. One revolt. Once you've made your DA's and first round of BBWars, you should have 300-500 provinces with 3% RR, or 10-15 revolts per year. I'm sorry to say that, but if you are afraid of 10-15 revolts per year, I don't care what you might tell.

You only need to keep half a million men in the rear (
well, and close to the fronts in the provinces you took from the AI). It's barely one-third or one-quarter of what you could field with Naval/Quality, so you don't risk having too few troops.
Oh, and one more thing : the first battle cripples the AI. Essentially, you'll have killed all their troops, they'll have exhausted their treasuries for some, and will have a difficult time restoring their armies to the size they had pre-BBWars. So, coupled with the fact they have less provinces to start the second and ulterior rounds, you need less troops on the battlefront.
Jomini said:
If you have some combination of skill and luck you might avoid a civil war, however it is not to be assumed that you will do so. In that case a million man army at LT 60 is actually a detriment (at the higher LT rebels are far more dangerous).
Plain wrong. LT 60 rebels are no more dangerous than LT 50 or LT 1 to you. They have the same tech and morale as your troops. It's the same. You said it yourself earlier.
Jomini said:
Bwhahahaha. I see, and how do you plan to take Tibet? Or storm the fortresses of the Changatai? Even with MA (which you did not mention getting in your master plan) there are good number of provinces in central asia with pitiful supply limits well below what you need simply to assualt the place. Further if you are up 3 CRTs the boost from quality is negligable, especially given that you are sacrificing much of it back on serfdom.
You should have better read my first post :
myself said:
Invent blitzkrieg (a useful trick : military accesses ; as you don't need to DoW, you can conclude MAs beforehand, the AI won't break them, and your troops will be ready).
With a good morale, you're sure to take the place with one assault. And if it's true supply limit is low, with MA it gets good enough : either there're enough fortresses to afford you a high SL, or there're low fortresses you can storm with 10k infantrymen in one week. A hundred thousands men, evenly split in cavalry and infantry (
or rather 60inf/40cav) are enough to conquer the whole steppes north of Persia. Tibet is slightly harder, but again SL is in your favor, as you certainly have more than enough CRT advantages to beat away the AI's troops. You only have to start the BBWars at the beginning of the month.
Jomini said:
The relative advantage it gives is. Unless the calculations changed and I missed it, the bonus from DP sliders is additive and not multiplicative. In any event morale is capped at 7 and base with LT 60 is 6.0. Between your maintance and offensive you are sufficiently close to maximum for the effect to be negligable.
That's exactly why a +0.10 boost is more than enough. It won't be spoiled above 7, since Serfdom decreases it. And as I said it above : high morale makes for a first-assault success without needing to reinforce the assault. Going Quantity would bring the morale modifier from +0.10 to -0.40, with a +0.50 from maintenance. With Quality, you're at 6.60, while with Quantity you're at 6.10. That 0.50 difference is enough that you might fail an assault. Maybe not on the first province, but on the second or third. And a wave of failed assaults is severely delaying the end of the war.
Jomini said:
Why on earth would you assume that? I am curious, how many BB did it cost for you to take out France, Russia, the HRE, and play religious games in England?
Well under BB-threshold at all times. Remember that I make Poland conquer Russia. Religious games with England end-up with a neutral BB (provinces taken are given back), since those wars allowed to get other objectives.
I assume that degree of skill, because it's critical for an easy WC to ensure Europe is under your grasp at the start, whether directly or through vassals.
Jomini said:

Full narrowminded is a given. As are the BB costs. As even can be the 50 FAAs.
In a nutshell the tradeoff is between having lower stability while having more events that lower it or having higher stability costs and fewer events that lower it. One need not even go full free subjects, just enough to avoid stab crushing events.
You should review your
classics. What are the dangerous events you face even without serfdom ?
- stabhits you can't avoid through easily* : 2 for corruption, (
since you probably don't want inflation, although I'd take twice that infla when going WC) ; Nobles ally with foreing powers ; one unhappiness among peasantry ; meteor sighted ; bad gv policies ; two political crisis ; assassination of nobles ; two plagues = 9 or 11 events.
- RR-increases : wave of obscurantism will increase RR by +3% overall, leading to 10-20 more provinces during a year.
Revolt-causing events aren't as dangerous, as those are only annoying in some areas, but if you count them, then you have eight of them IMHO.
What does serfdom add ? two events, unhappiness among peasantry. Two events, when you have around a hundred events open, so only 2% chances every year of getting one of them. 2 more, compared to the already 9/10/11/12/20 bad ones I've mentionned above.
Yes, the two additional ones give respectively -2 and -3 ; but you already had two -2 and two -3.
In the thirty years that your WC attempt will take, you only have less than half a chance to get one of those two new events. But the benefit of that risk is that all other -1 hits will be restored in a year of investments, not five.
* ie, you can'd avoid them through paying money or accepting a move of the sliders : I consider it acceptable to increase/decrease aristocracy and decrease decentralization because of the nobles/burgers demand power, etc, events, because at that point of the game, both those DP sliders don't matter as much as stability
Jomini said:
As far as the math goes. Full free subjects is +50%, full serfdom is -50%. It is mathematically impossible for full serfdom to bring an otherwise 5 year investment cost down to 1 year.
DP-sliders' modifiers are cumulative, that is you add Narrow & Serfdom together before comparing. So, 100 - 25 (Narro) - 50 (Serfdom) = 25, or a *0.25 modifier to the cost. But 100 - 25 (Narro) +50 (FS) = 125, or a *1.25 modifier. As far as math goes, it's a one-to-five ratio.
Jomini said:
I think it's already common knowledge that stab 0 can give you a Civil War. If you disagreel, demonstrate it then.
Jomini said:
Not given the setup you outlined. Taking the steps you put forth in your intial post; the Changatai migh be allied with the Uzbeks or Mughals, but more often cores, alliance shifts, etc. leave it isolated. Likewise Nepal often ends up without alliances. The Southeast Asian states are often allied to each other, and not with either the Hindu or Moslem states.
Those are only exceptions. Remember that I spoke about Indonesia already, you get borders there too. And share your maps several decades before the attempt, and you'll get less isolated countries since alliances will probably get far-away members. Even so, I said it : the TA of China is the signal you are waiting to start seeking peaces. If you get new borders, you'll know it before the TA happens, so your armies will be ready, and in less than six months you'll beat those backward nations. Then, and only then, make massive peaces if you don't want to do other earlier. But I assure you that six months are more than enough to beat the southeast asians if you didn't formerly have borders.
Jomini said:
Don't you suppose that sharing this little tidbit in your previous outline might have been a good idea? Even there I do beleive you are incorrect. Japan frequently ends up isolated even if it has Chinese maps. Certainly any vassals states not in the leige's alliance are wholly exempt.
Certainly, isolated vassals are possible. And this tidbit was, IMHO, obvious if you see that some countries are all alone.
Remember also that we're speaking of a late-game WC : the number of countries is reduced compared to 1419 setup. And borders are strange.
Jomini said:
1. You can stockpile at most six diplomats.
2. If you want to make peace with the dozen odd states in rapid succession you can only take provinces from the alliance leaders.
3. The rapidity with which you crush a state has absolutely no direct bearing on WE.
1. at a time, yes ; during the war, FA the one-provincers one at a time, but stay close to six diplomats to get peaces at the moment you choose
2. yes, if the leader is offering you the peace ; you can still first accept offers from members
3. you get WE for every month at war ; if a war is finished in one month, and you have no other wars ongoing (
which is the case at hand with China), you'll take less WE than if it finishes in six months. So, it has a direct bearing.
Jomini said:
You have three competing objectives with this uber BB round:
1. Make simultaneous peace with all the multiple province states in Asia, Africa, and North America.
2. Maximize your gains so that you can complete this adventure in 3 rounds (the 4th being nothing but capitals going under).
3. TA China.
1. Asia mainly : nobody left in America, and no more than one or two left in Africa (the non-pagan ones) ; that makes around 20 countries I'd say
2. yes, possible since you have few enemies, you can prove patient - to an extent
3. as I said, the TA of China is not an order to make peace in one month, but the signal that it's time to look out for peaces ; however, you don't have to accept the first peace offered
Jomini said:
These are all in competition. Maximizing gains requires you to burn diplos on seperate peaces. TAing China after having DAed all of Europe and the colonies likewise ensures that you will be fighting any residual states in America (barring maybe the Dakota), half of the African states, and pretty much everyone in Asia. Yes one can pull this off, but it seems to be rather less than a commonly easy strat for WC. You do appear to have had a game with uncommonly good luck (England didn't reconvert, uberPoland didn't tear itself apart with revolts, Russia didn't declare independence, etc.). Those happen with enough people playing the game enough times. However I'd be extremely hesitant to give advise counting on everything you've laid out to be readily replicable.
No, you don't need to
burn diplos on separate peaces, only a handful of them, because all allies will offer separate peaces themselves. As you might have noticed, I say that general peaces should endure for four to four-and-half years : this indicates you make peaces in a six-month period. Besides, you seem to forget that waiting for a peace offer is better than asking one, the AI'll offer you more provinces.
And you seem to rely on luck too much, and deem the others do the same. Those situations were carefully nurtured by me.