Here's some charts for people. The first is the cumulative stock of equipment produced from Civilian Oversight vs Harsh Quotas:
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The second is the flow of resources from Civilian Oversight vs Forced Labor:
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Both of these assume Government in Exile is not a factor.
That's better than I thought, actually. I was estimating that 18 months was the break even point.
BTW my reason behind all of this is I would have thought a better "design" would be the harsher the law the more you actually get. It's sort of based on the following logic. Non-harsh laws would let the occupied country keep almost everything. They are almost an independent country in some regards. While the harsher the law the more you steal and the more you force the occupied people to do work for you. They grow to hate you and therefore you have to have a large army present or they will attack you. You cost is having that army there and not fighting. And the lower your percentage of that garrison requirement the more likely they attack. But if you do have 100% garrison requirements then they don't attack very often.
Well, there's the other weird part to this: with spy missions, you can get compliance past the all important 50% threshold before you capitulate the target. This changes the math of everything, because it becomes possible to even get more than 100% factories with the right occupation policy and enough collaboration effect.
I want to try out a Soviet game where I run collaboration on Germany and then hit them with Liberated Workers when I capitulate them and go to a peace conference. I got 106% factories on Finland this way. I bet I could do better on Germany with enough effort. Can you imagine the Soviet Union with 110% of Germany's factories?