Err ahh -- To start, I would say that I am not entirely dedicated to either school of thought. That said, there are some fairly large holes in your argument. For example: there was never any guarantee that Germany would DoW the U.S after a Japanese attack. Thus the argument that the U.S's provocation towards Germany has little to nothing to do with Japan (in fact, one could conclude that Japan and Germany were obviously not directly allied as Japan didnt enter the war with the U.S.S.R in June of '41).
Additionally - there are other potential explanations to some of the coincidental evidence. The U.S had absolutely been meddling around in Japanese affairs for some time before Pearl harbor. Our Oil Embargo was only the last step in a line of anti-japanese military rhetoric (Condeming the invasion of China, both in 1932 and 1937). With the U.S leveraging itself politically and economically in the Far-East, it isnt surprising that at some point they'd dig in in-case of an attack (but it's important to note that preparing for an potential attack, and expecting it are different).
Finally, if the U.S were to have predicted that Japan would attack (and thusly moved the Aircraft Carriers out of Pearl Harbor) - why were the Phillipines left with such a shortage of equipment, supplies and men.
This thread has been taken sufficiently OT enough by my counter-argument - I apologize to Susanna and everyone else, just wanted to muse a bit!
-- Screenshots are AWESOME. Truth be told, it's that political one that got me all excited!! Cannae wait!!
Easy Max, you give me far to much credit, this is not "my" argument.
About the buildup of US war capability prior to Pearl Harbor there can be little doubt. In 1940 the US instituted a draft, authorized a substantial increase in the size of the army and allocated funds to increase the size of the navy by 70%. Between 1940 and 1941 US production of aircraft increased six-fold. And so forth.
As far as the US, Germany, and Japan..."At the end of September 1940 the Tripartite Pact between Japan, Italy and Germany formalized the Axis Powers. The pact stipulated that any country, with the exception of the Soviet Union, not in the war which attacked any Axis Power would be forced to go to war against all three. The Soviet Union expressed interest in joining the Tripartite Pact, sending a modified draft to Germany in November, offering a very German-favourable economic deal; while Germany remained silent on the former, they accepted the latter. Regardless of the pact, the United States continued to support the United Kingdom and China by introducing the Lend-Lease policy and creating a security zone spanning roughly half of the Atlantic Ocean where the United States Navy protected British convoys. As a result, Germany and the United States found themselves engaged in sustained, if undeclared, naval warfare in the North Atlantic by October 1941, even though the United States remained officially neutral."
Roosevelt himself ordered that the Pacific Fleet be headquartered at Pearl Harbor, rather than its former location in San Diego, as a response to anticipated Japanese hostilities. Roosevelt also ordered a buildup of forces in the Philippines. Those who argue that he did not suspect that the Japanese would attack Pearl Harbor first point to the fact that he, and other leaders, believed that the Philippines would be their first target, but nobody argues that the US did not expect an attack by the Japanese by the end of 1941. The oil embargo was considered by many Japanese to be an unofficial declaration of war, and US leaders understood that this would force the Japanese to act against the US or halt their military actions in Asia. In studying why US forces in Hawaii did not detect the Japanese fleet the fact is often cited that because of the US buildup in the Philippines there simply were not enough airplanes in Hawaii that were capable of performing long range patrol activities.
Roosevelt is reported to have discussed how the US could manuver the Japanese into "shooting the first shot", and he understood that only a significant action could get the US public out of its isolationist mood. The Germans had already sunk several US merchant ships in 1941, and had torpedoed one US destroyer and sunk another (the Reuben James) in October 1941.
In the aftermath of Pearl Harbor Nimitz claimed that it was a "blessing" that the fleet was attacked while in harbor because had Kimmel been aware of the oncoming Japanese fleet he would likely have sortied out and the whole US fleet would have been sunk at sea where it could not be recovered.
As history shows, once the Japanese and Americans were formally at war Germany and Italy quickly declared war on the US as well. What was apparently not known to the Japanese is that our standing war plans were such that if we found ourselves at war with Japan we would fight a war of containment in the Pacific until we defeated the Axis powers in Europe. The Japanese had been counting on us rushing all available forces to the Philippines.
All investigations into Pearl Harbor concluded that there was a lot of confusion, ineptness, and even incompetence in the US political and military leadership, but they were not quite as stupid and blind as some people seem willing to believe. One could argue that the US did too little too late, but to argue that the US did nothing until Pearl Harbor is about like arguing that the earth is flat.
