First, I said a setup they thought would give a winning edge, not traits alone. So traits + ethics + whatever master plan the player has.None of the traits give you an edge to win mid or end game - none of them. Let's say I went Enduring/Industrious. Which traits would you take in place of industrious which would give you a winning edge in the mid or late game?
There are certainly some happiness setups where I would argue Adaptive/Communal makes for a stronger late early game and mid-game when all your native colonies are joyful without requiring any buildings or any research.
As another example, Thrifty is - in the long term - a more effective use of tiles than Industrious due to the disparency between on-planet and off-planet mining station and energy station production, so somebody taking the long view and focusing on production might very well prefer Thrifty.
And then there are the MP players who will focus on tech without a happiness build, they'll most likely be picking tech traits to support their build for quicker access to key techs. Tech isn't king, but it is certainly a valid approach.
OBJECTION, your honour.I think the problem here is that you're arguing yourself into a false dichotomy. Several in fact. The first, that industrious is only useful in a worst-case scennario. This isn't true.
I have not made that argument. Reread what I wrote, if needed. It was quite clear:
So it comes down to whether one wants to guard against the worst case (in which case the industrious planet-based approach is clearly superior) or the typical case (in which case the situation is much more complex).
I have made the argument that the only case where I accept it as clearly the best is in a worst case scenario; I have not denied its usefulness in general. In general I consider its usefulness compared to other approaches to depend on your circumstances and your overall game plan.
And I have not argued that it isn't.Let's say you get a fabulous start with 10 production available from mining stations in your home system. It'll still take your science ship ~6 months months (depending on how many planetary bodies you need to scan) to actually survey those worlds, and you're construction ship will take even longer to get all of those stations online. And building those stations costs production. Building 2-3 mining networks on your planet has no opportunity cost. You can queue a science ship (for exploration) at your star port, and queue a mining network on the planet with production to spare on day 1. When you get your planets surveyed, you now have more minerals with which to build mining or research stations. There's no situation where the extra minerals from 3-4 properly bonussed mining networks isn't useful in the early game. Having 40 production instead of 32 is a good thing, any way you cut it.
There is absolutely nothing to prevent you from building one or two mining networks on your home planet without Industrious; in fact, I expect just about everybody does so if their starting science ship doesn't immediately find a mineral deposit or two. Regardless of whether you have Industrious or not, regardless of whether you have extra mineral deposits on your home planet on your home planet or not, building extra mining networks on your homeworld provides at least as good a return on investment as building a mining station so long as you have unemployed POPs and aren't lacking for energy, in which case power plants would be better. So this is something that is independent of whether you choose Industrious or not.
Let's to your fabulous start of 10 minerals we add 3 mining networks for a total of 16 base, using 5 POPs, and the benefit that Industrious provides is 15%*16 = 2.4 minerals/month or an extra mining station per 90/2.4 = 37.5 months.
So let's look at your 40 vs 32 again, shall we? Yes, 40 is better than 32, but I can't help feeling that you are probably conflating the effects of happiness and Industrious here to bring up such a huge difference in monthly income, since to get a difference of 8 minerals in production due to your Industrious trait alone requires you to be mining 8/15% ~ 53.3 base minerals on planets.
This is not going to happen on your homeworld. Even if all 16 tiles of the homeworld were mining stations, it would not happen. It will not happen when you've colonized one or two worlds. It is not going to happen anytime soon, in fact. By the time you get a difference of 8 minerals extra produced per month due to the Industrious trait, you most likely have 5 fairly well developed worlds (should be doable by 7-8 POPs per world) or a larger number of less well developed worlds. In short, by the time you get 8 extra minerals/month due to Industrious, you should have a well developed early-game empire with a great many mining stations in space, and the difference is not going to be between your empire producing 32 or 40 (as that situation is impossible), nor is it going to be the difference between 45 and 53 (the minimal case with zero mining stations), it is more likely going to be the difference between producing 90+ and whatever number you end up with
But, one might argue, what about the extra mining stations made available through the extra Industrious income? It might only be one per 37.5 months, but surely that should be counted in the 8 mineral difference? I'd argue not; Given that the player is going to develop all mining stations in the territories he controls, and the territories he controls is not limited by minerals in the early game as much as by influence for outposts and exploration, the extra income from Industrious does not in fact grant the player extra mining stations; they were going to be built anyhow and, as such, their income cannot be assigned to Industrious' benefit.
Many 4X games have aspects that give early game advantages, which appear strong on the face of it but are later disparaged as noob-traps, because the very real early game advantage they provided was just too expensive in the long run - either directly because of drawbacks that didn't matter early on or because of the opportunity cost of not choosing something that just worked better in the long run.The second dichotomy is that getting early production somehow doesn't translate into a mid or late game advantage. In every 4x ever made, an early game advantage is a mid and late game advantage. If you have more production, and you get that production sooner, you will build labs sooner. You will build colony stations sooner. You will build research stations sooner. You will snowball sooner. Thats why in other 4x games (e.g. Civ) early game unique units and unique buildings are valued far higher than late game uu's and ub's. An early game advantage is a late game advantage.
So I'll have to reject your general notion that an early-game advantage is a late-game advantage, and advance my own view on that issue, namely that an early game advantage can be a late game advantage due to snowballing, but is is not guaranteed to be one when compared to other options - it all depends on the opportunity costs involved and that can be really hard to measure.
As for the snowballing aspect...
Take happiness builds as an example; A Fanatic Spiritualist Moral Democracy (void cloud) Enduring/Industrious build will only hit 80% happiness on your early colonies because of a lack of habitability boosters; you require 10% habitability and another 5% happiness to hit 90%, which is two separate techs researched (and a building built) to hit 90% due to lack of habitability. This is not going to happen in the early game unless you are extremely lucky with the techs you are offered. So in the very early game once you step outside your homeworld, your colonies will produce +10% food, energy, science, and +25% minerals... Whereas somebody who used the same ethics and government, and observed void clouds, together with Adaptive/Communal would hit 90% on colonies immediately, for +20% food, energy, science, and minerals. Their POPs grow faster, they need to use less tiles for power plants to support buildings, and all for the cost of -5% minerals. Considerably later on, this advantage disappears once you have researched habitability techs and gotten more sources of happiness, but one advantage of the Adaptiveness/Communal approach is that getting those techs isn't a priority; you are already good at 90% without them. On the other hand, the the Industrialist/Enduring has the benefit of long-lifed leaders, which is a mid- and late-game benefit for saving influence... On the third hand, influcence is seldom scarce in the late game... And so on and so forth.
So how does one measure the value of a slightly stronger very early game before anything is colonized vs a stronger game as soon as as colonization starts? Both of them snowball, as you say. The Industrious approach helps earlier, the Adaptive/Communal approach helps more when it kicks in, which it does as soon as you start colonizing.
The answer is, as far as I see it, that which of the two is best depends entirely on the random map generated and the possibilities it grants.
I consider the Adaptive/Communal to be the stronger in general; barring bad luck you will find minerals off-planet to exploit, and some native habitat planets to colonize, and getting those native planets up and running swifter and utilizing resources better is to my mind a better way of snowballing. You apparently disagree; so be it.
I also consider it rock solid and I consider it a safe approach.What would you even take to get an advantage in the mid game? Rapid breeder? As soon as your planets fill up, this is useless. Rapid Learner? Your scientists will hit level 3 three weeks before mine do and hit level 5 six months before I do. Congrats, enjoy that 2% edge in science for those 6 months, I guess. Thrifty? Sure, great trait for the mid-late game when I have planets full of power plants. Trouble is, the moment I actually want to leverage this, I can just gene mod it onto my energy world. Same goes for all of the science traits.
To be clear: I'm not saying other traits are bad. They aren't. There's more than one way to have a good build. I'm just pointing out that industrious gives you a production boost when you need it most, in the most critical phase of the game. That's rock solid.
But this is perhaps where we differ the greatest: What I consider the critical phase of the game is when I am growing the first 5-10 colonies and a high percentage of those shelter-POPs are growing food establishing my presence in space, not the very early years. At this point I am rarely mineral limited but frequently energy limited in my expansion, and further limited by the time it takes POPs to grow. So anything that provides more energy or makes POPs grow faster is a godsend, making the realm snowball faster, while more minerals is merely a nice to have.