Battlestar Galactica: Season 3 (now with Pegasus!)

[Artell]

I don't mind you doing it, although it does concern me that you would not be able to do this in real life at all because of the paper trail. The alternative is to nuke all the records after a while, OR come up with some way to balance it towards the cylons (because this kind of analysis makes it easier to find cylons).

I also have no qualms admitting to mistakes, those happen when you have so many fiddly things to do.

 

[randakar]

I don't mind you doing it, although it does concern me that you would not be able to do this in real life at all because of the paper trail. The alternative is to nuke all the records after a while, OR come up with some way to balance it towards the cylons (because this kind of analysis makes it easier to find cylons).

I also have no qualms admitting to mistakes, those happen when you have so many fiddly things to do.

If I had been playing this game from the start I would have been doing this from the start as well. In a real life game I might not be doing it as extensively though as the reasoning and writing things down takes ages. Also, in a real life game you sometimes miss people's draws and such. However I'd definitely be counting DD cards as that one is usually the easiest way to tell if someone has been sabotaging things.

However, I do not doubt that if you had a set of players in a real life game taking this very (way too) seriously you'd probably end up with a similar situation where everyone is able to reason about what other people's hands contain (or at least, should contain).

In werewolf games you also see this: People who take it seriously will count every vote and use the 'paper trail' to verify what happens, why, and how. Something which is very different from a RL werewolf game where everyone votes simultaneously, there is no paper trail, and vote sniping is all but impossible.

Frankly I don't think we should fret too much about the differences caused by having this game on the net rather than in real life. Having differences is unavoidable. The only (real) question is whether a) it unbalances things too much towards one side or another, and b) how to keep it balanced if there is an imbalance. Don't forget however that people exist who can do all of this in their head in a RL game as well.

I don't think it will cause a very big imbalance. So far the analysis seems to do nothing more than confirm some gut feelings I have. I may have a good idea about what certain people's hands were at certain stages of the game but that does not guarantee that I will find a Cylon in the slightest. In fact the cylon I did find I found by doing something which was rather more crude, not attempting to calculate everyone's hand but instead just looking at single skill checks and their results and figuring out what people might have played (and why!) from there.

(As an aside, I messed the DD counting up because I forgot about the 2 extra treachery cards. I'll be retroactively fixing that in a moment)

 

[Artell]

Well in our gaming group we have an offensive saying, "no one likes the rainman", i.e. if you're spending way too much time and effort on figuring the game out in your head, you are doing it wrong, and it's also considered a bit unfair (even though you are still just using your mental capabilities like any other person, you are just better at it). That's why I'm a bit torn on this, because it's not how I play boardgames IRL.

 

[jacob-Lundgren]

Hows about we move the game forward and do analysis on new actions

 

[Herbert West]

as the one who usually plays (even overplays) the Analyst in my games, I'm borderline offended by this. A game such as this pretty much relies on mental mechanics ticking away at the notion of the traitor, and figuring out who has what, what ones goals are, etc.

I'm not that invested in this game to do this, myself, but its good to see someone doing it. That is not to say I dont enjoy it, I do, but its slow pace and non-personal nature simply means my involvement is lower than and IRL version. In IRL, everyone would be slinging "you dirty Cylon" insults at everyone from skillcheck 1.

 

[randakar]

Well in our gaming group we have an offensive saying, "no one likes the rainman", i.e. if you're spending way too much time and effort on figuring the game out in your head, you are doing it wrong, and it's also considered a bit unfair (even though you are still just using your mental capabilities like any other person, you are just better at it). That's why I'm a bit torn on this, because it's not how I play boardgames IRL.

Frankly what amazes me most is that nobody else has been doing this. I know some people keep spreadsheets around with all of the votes in werewolf. Very complicated ones at times. I asked in the thread earlier if anyone had been doing something like this and Ciryandor said he had a spreadsheet of this game at the start of it but stopped when it got too complicated.

Don't forget - in real life, people have facial expressions and behaviour you can watch to find the Cylons. In this game, such clues are unavailable. People limit themselves to 2 word "1 card" posts. There is no way for me to tell what role they have. I can ask them what their card was but they're limited to binary small/big help answers.

Put another way: How am I supposed to find the cylons, other than through analysing what happens during skill checks or them revealing themselves when it is already too late for me to do anything about it?

edit: @Herbert-West - thank you
Also: You dirty cylon!

 

[randakar]

Herbert West uses a 3 Strategic planning on the jump to gain fuel.
3 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 1 Tactics

Turn 9
Jacob draws 1 Tactics 1 Treachery OR Engineering
4 cards remaining: 3 Tactics (1 Treachery OR 1 Engineering)


Turn 10
Snoopdogg draws 2 Leadership 3 Tactics
Snoopdogg plays 3 Strategic Planning to attack a basestar.
4 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 2 Tactics

Herbert West discards 2 Leadership for a crisis.
1 card remaining: 1 Tactics

Ciryandor discards 1 leadership 1 politics

DD: 4 remaining, lost 1 tactics and 1 politics, 0 or 1 engineering, 2 piloting, 0 or 1 that went to jacob (probably a engineering or leadership card if it wasn't the piloting card from earlier), 1 leadership, (1 leadership or 1 engineering), 1 card that Artell may or may not have forgotten.
Alternate 10 card DD: 2 remaining, lost 1 tactics and 1 politics, 0 or 1 engineering, 2 piloting, 0 or 1 that went to jacob (probably a engineering or leadership card if it wasn't the piloting card from earlier), 1 leadership, (1 leadership or 1 engineering), 1 card that Artell may or may not have forgotten.

Jacob-Lundgren:
4 cards remaining: 3 Tactics (1 Treachery OR 1 Engineering)

Jopi:
3 cards remaining: 1 leadership 0 or 1 tactics 1 or 2 piloting.

Rysz:
1 card remaining: 0 or 1 piloting 0 or 1 tactics 0 or 1 leadership 0 or 1 engineering

Herbert-West:
1 card remaining: 1 Tactics

Snoopdogg:
4 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 2 Tactics

Ciryandor:
0 cards remaining.

sbr:
6 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 3 Engineering 1 Politics

(So far everything matches rather nicely with the analysis..)

 

[randakar]

Turn 11
Ellen draws 2 Politics 2 Leadership 1 Treachery
5 cards remaining: 2 Politics 2 Leadership 1 Treachery

Check #5

Loss of a Friend

Politics/Leadership, difficulty 9

Pass: No effect
7+: The current player discards 2 skill cards
Fail: -1 morale and the current player discards 2 skill cards.

Heavy raider launches. Jump prep advances.

5 Declare Emergency
3 Declare Emergency
3 Declare Emergency
2 Executive Order
1 Executive Order
3 Strategic Planning
3 Sabotage
1 Broadcast Location

Exactly 7. Ellen needs to discard two cards.

Players:
Jacob-Lundgren: 1 card
Had 4 cards remaining: 3 Tactics (1 Treachery OR 1 Engineering)
He plays a treachery card later, so it had to be the 3 strategic planning here.
3 cards remaining: 2 Tactics 1 treachery

Ciryandor: 1 card
Had 5 cards remaining: 2 Politics 2 Leadership 1 Treachery
Discards 1 treachery right after this check, and politics is not in the result set. Had to play 1 leadership here.
4 cards remaining: 2 Politics 1 Leadership 1 Treachery

sbr: 2 cards
Had 6 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 3 Engineering 1 Politics
No engineering or politics in the result. This had to be 2 Leadership
4 cards remaining: 3 Engineering 1 Politics.

At this point we are left with 2 leadership 2 treachery in the check result.

Snoopdogg: 2 cards
Had 4 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 2 Tactics
Had to play 2 leadership
2 cards remaining: 2 Tactics

Leaves 2 treachery to the destiny deck

DD: 2 remaining, lost 1 tactics, 1 politics, 2 treachery, 2 piloting, 1 leadership, 0 or 1 engineering, 0 or 1 that went to jacob (probably a engineering or leadership card if it wasn't the piloting card from earlier), (1 leadership or 1 engineering), 1 card that Artell may or may not have forgotten.


Ellen discards 1 Consolidate Power 3 Human Weakness upon partially passing the check.
2 cards remaining: 1 Politics 1 Leadership

Jacob plays 3 Sabotage upon the discard.
2 cards remaining: 2 Tactics.

 

[randakar]

Turn 12
Rysz draws 1 piloting
2 cards remaining: 1 or 2 piloting 0 or 1 tactics 0 or 1 leadership 0 or 1 engineering

Turn 13
Jopi draws 1 Leadership 2 Tactics 2 Piloting
Jopi plays executive order to let Herbert West blind jump the fleet.
7 cards remaining: 1 leadership 2 or 3 tactics 3 or 4 piloting

DD: 2 remaining, lost 1 tactics, 1 politics, 2 treachery, 2 piloting, 1 leadership, 0 or 1 engineering, 0 or 1 that went to jacob (probably a engineering or leadership card if it wasn't the piloting card from earlier), (1 leadership or 1 engineering), 1 card that Artell may or may not have forgotten.

Jacob:
2 cards remaining: 2 Tactics

Jopi:
7 cards remaining: 1 leadership 2 or 3 tactics 3 or 4 piloting

Rysz:
2 cards remaining: 1 or 2 piloting 0 or 1 tactics 0 or 1 leadership 0 or 1 engineering

Ciryandor:
2 cards remaining: 1 Politics 1 Leadership

Snoopdogg:
2 cards remaining: 2 Tactics


Herbert-West:
1 cards remaining: 1 Tactics
(however, further on he states that he has NO cards. Uhm .. let me check this for errors. edit: found one, but still have one card too many here..
It looks like I missed a strategic planning somewhere early. He has been on 1 tactics card before. However, it looks doubtfull that this will be a real issue.)

sbr:
4 cards remaining: 3 Engineering 1 Politics
(hmn. Says "I have nothing to help this." on the later check but this analysis shows him with 1 politics card in hand. Yet again, checking for errors.
edit: Nope. Doesn't look like an error to me. Need to check the thread between turn 7 and this one carefully to see if I missed him playing a politics card somewhere but .. hmm
edit2: Nope. No error. He plays a 1 consolidate power on his next turn while in sickbay and not drawing politics.
)

Check #6

Witch Hunt

Politics/Leadership, difficulty 10.
Pass: No effect.
6+: -1 morale.
Fail: -1 morale. Current player chooses a character and sends them to the Sickbay.

Heavy raider activates (none to activate). Jump prep advances.

Players
Ciryandor: 2 cards.
Has to be 1 Politics 1 Leadership
0 cards remaining

4 Declare Emergency
2 Consolidate Power
1 Consolidate Power
3 Calculations

So the DD was left with 1 politics 1 engineering. Let's go back through the checks and match this up with expectations..
edit: Yep, it does. The politics card had to be in there, the 1 engineering seems to line up with the various options, and for the 1 card that artell forgot to add the only remaining option is that it was another tactics card that should have been added to the check that Artell made an error on.

The only remaining puzzle is why Herbert seems to have lost a tactics card somewhere, but that error doesn't look very life threatening right now.

 

[randakar]

Turn 14
sbr draws 1 Engineering, plays 1 repair (on vipers) and 1 consolidate power. Gains 2 engineering from that.
5 cards remaining: 5 Engineering

Snoopdogg plays 3 Strategic Planning on the crisis.
1 card remaining: 1 Tactics

Turn 15
Herbert West draws 2 Leadership 3 Tactics
5 (6?) cards remaining: 2 Leadership 3 (4?) Tactics

Skill check #7

Detector Sabotage

Skill check, Tactics/Leadership, 8.

Pass: No effect
Fail: All characters in the Research Lab location are sent to Sickbay. Keep this card in play. Players may not look at each other's loyalty cards.
Heavy raiders activate. Jump prep track advances.

5 Critical Situation
4 Critical Situation
4 Strategic Planning
2 Launch Scout
2 Executive Order
1 Evasive Maneuver

+16, pass. No effect. Jump prep advances.

Players
Rysz: 1 card (big help)
Had 2 cards according to my analysis: 1 engineering 1 piloting
However, this looks wrong. He wouldn't sabotage this (not a cylon, check is irrelevant, the piloting card is worthless (and he claims to be adding a "big help" making him highly likely to have played a tactics card here), and he has been helping all game so far. Going back through the thread here it looks like my guess in post #700 was actually wrong - but I'm not 100% sure, and the error could have been elsewhere. Hmn, the joys of analysing someone elses' play .. (Also, this teaches me not to cut corners ..)
Luckily at this stage this doesn't matter much because I'm fairly certain about what he retains.
edit3: Redid all analysis of Rysz's hand from post #700 until here. That corrected analysis gets me the following remaining hand:
Had 2 cards remaining: 1 or 2 piloting 0 or 1 tactics 0 or 1 leadership 0 or 1 engineering
So, he could have played a tactics card here and be left with 1 piloting. Good.
1 card remaining: 1 piloting

Jopi: 3 cards
Had 7 cards: 1 leadership 2 or 3 tactics 3 or 4 piloting
Would have played either 3 tactics or 2 tactics 1 leadership.
4 cards remaining: 0 or 1 Leadership, 0 or 1 tactics, 3 piloting
(This means that previously he had to have 3 piloting 3 tactics 1 leadership remaining..)


DD: 10 cards remaining. Lost 1 piloting, (1 leadership or 1 tactics)

edit: See the next check for some interesting nuance regarding this one ..

(ok, fine, bedtime for me. I'll do turn 16 later. Assuming Herbert West doesn't decide to take his turn and airlock someone evul for me ;-) )

 

[Rysz]

I have agreed with Randakar that he will sub me permanently. Some developments in my Real Life (positive) have taken my time and attention away from this forum.


Randakar: You know you can see former revisions of my google docs where I keep my card information since turn 15? (The turn where I asked Artell to send me my hand). Unfortunately it has no timestamp of revisions.

 

[randakar]

Randakar: You know you can see former revisions of my google docs where I keep my card information since turn 15? (The turn where I asked Artell to send me my hand). Unfortunately it has no timestamp of revisions.

I know it keeps track of former revisions, I just forgot about that. But finding out what hand matches what check will be a bit of a challenge, I think. Especially when it needs to be done retroactively..

edit:

Actually, it doesn't really matter.
0) I am not a Cylon.
1) It seems likely that sbr was not a cylon before the sleeper phase. Nor was anyone else. That clears Ciryandor mostly.
2) The last jump was very very good for us, leaving me thinking Herbert West is not a Cylon.
3) During one of the earlier checks (after the sleeper phase) Jopi was putting in 2 cards (post #585), helping at least somewhat. And again, in a different check (post #571).

We have 7 players, 3 cylons. 4 of the players are cleared to some degree or other. 2 of them are known cylons. Leaving snoopdogg as our most likely third cylon candidate.

I will try to complete my card analysis but this seems our best bet for now.

 

[randakar]

Ok, correlating the revision history with the thread yields me a rather high degree of certainty that someone made a mistake with the earlier check. I had my count correct right up until the point where Rysz added that card. The piloting card wasn't his but he did get his hand resend from Artell just before he added 1 card to the check. I'll leave him on:
1 card remaining: 1 piloting
and continue counting from there.
edit: edit: NM, jopi being a cylon at this stage of the game doesn't make sense *either*. I'll just have to go through everything and see where the mistake is ..

Turn 16
Jacob draws 1 Tactics (1 Treachery OR 1 Engineering)
4 cards remaining: 3 Tactics (1 Treachery OR 1 Engineering)

Check #8

Cylon Intruders

Skill check. Tactics/Leadership, difficulty 18.
Pass: No effect.
14+: Place a centurion on the first space of the boarding party track.

Players
jacob-lundgren: 1 card
4 cards remaining: 2 Tactics (1 Treachery OR 1 Engineering)

herbert-west: 4 cards (He says"all of them")
5 (6?) cards remaining: 2 Leadership 3 (4?) Tactics

jopi: 2 cards
4 cards remaining: 0 or 1 Leadership, 0 or 1 tactics, 3 piloting (uhm .. what?!? Drat, my count *still* is screwed isn't it? Either that, or Jopi has been sabotaging things with piloting cards ..)

Snoopdogg: 2 cards
1 card remaining: 1 Tactics (.. another one?!?)

1 Executive Order
1 Executive Order
1 Executive Order
1 Launch Scout
1 Launch Scout
2 Launch Scout
2 Launch Scout
3 Strategic Planning
1 Broadcast Location
3 Sabotage
3 Investigative Committee

12 minus 7... is 5.

edit:
.. ok, at this stage I have major errors with not just 1 person's hand, but three of them. This will take some time to figure out..
edit2: My current guess is that somehow the strategic planning Tigh / snoop played at the start of turn 14 was actually taken from Herbert's hand instead. That explains the discrepancy for two players. For Jopi, it looks like he lost a piloting card on a check somewhere .. still need to account for it.
edit3: I've triple checked Jopi's hand. Either he played a piloting card on check #7 (turn 14) or his hand was wrong at the start of the turn. Or I missed something significant in the thread. Either way, this looks rather interesting..


Players
jacob-lundgren: 1 card
Had 4 cards remaining: 3 Tactics (1 Treachery OR 1 Engineering)
For sabotaging, he would have played 1 Treachery
3 cards remaining: 3 Tactics

herbert-west: 4 cards (He says"all of them")
5 (6?) cards remaining: 2 Leadership 3 (4?) Tactics
I will assume he played 2 leadership 2 tactics, and 1 of his tactics cards (Strategic Planning) was played by snoopdogg.
0 cards remaining. (I will ignore the phantom tactics card from here on as it's clear nobody but me still has it in the accounting)

Snoopdogg: 2 cards
1 card remaining: 1 Tactics (.. another one?!?)
Assuming he played 2 tactics, one of them actually in Herbert's hand instead.
0 cards remaining.

At this point we have 1 leadership 1 tactics 1 politics 1 treachery unaccounted for in the check.

jopi: 2 cards
Had 4 cards remaining: 0 or 1 Leadership, 0 or 1 tactics, 3 piloting
See discussion above. I'm going to assume he played 1 leadership 1 tactics on this check as that's the only thing that makes sense. Red is not in the result. At this point I am assuming Jopi lost a piloting instead of a tactics card on the previous check somehow.
2 cards remaining: 2 piloting

Which leaves 1 politics 1 treachery for the DD. Nobody except for jacob could have sabotaged this by hand colours so this is rather certain. However, if Jopi played a piloting card (whether intentional or by accident) on the previous check then the DD accounting is going to be off for that check.

DD: 8 cards remaining. Lost 1 politics 1 treachery (??1 piloting?? or ??1 tactics?? (if Jopi sabotaged check 7)), (1 leadership or 1 tactics)

 

[randakar]

Turn 17
Snoopdogg draws 2 Leadership 3 Tactics
5 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 3 Tactics

DD: 8 cards remaining. Lost 1 politics 1 treachery (??1 piloting?? or ??1 tactics?? (if Jopi sabotaged check 7)), (1 leadership or 1 tactics)

edit: Sabotage doesn't make sense for check #7, in which case the DD looks like this:
DD: 8 cards remaining. Lost 1 politics 1 treachery 1 piloting (1 leadership or 1 tactics)

jacob-lundgren: 3 cards remaining: 3 Tactics
Snoopdogg: 5 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 3 Tactics
Jopi: 2 cards remaining: 2 piloting
Rysz: 1 card remaining: 1 piloting
Herbert-West: 0 cards remaining
Ciryandor: 0 cards remaining
sbr: 5 cards remaining: 5 Engineering

Check #9

Terrorist Bomber

Tactics/Leadership, 9
Pass: No effect
Fail: -1 morale, current player is sent to Sickbay.

4 Scientific Research
2 Executive Order

DD: 6 cards remaining. Lost 1 politics 1 treachery 1 Engineering 1 Leadership (??1 piloting?? or ??1 tactics?? (if Jopi sabotaged check 7)), (1 leadership or 1 tactics)

edit: Sabotage doesn't make sense for check #7, in which case the DD looks like this:
DD: 6 cards remaining. Lost 1 politics 1 treachery 1 Engineering 1 Leadership 1 piloting (1 leadership or 1 tactics)

Turn 18
Ciryandor draws 2 Politics 2 Leadership 1 Treachery
Ciryandor plays 1 Executive Order on Kat attempting to kill a centurion.
4 cards remaining: 2 Politics 1 Leadership 1 Treachery

Check #10

Crash Landing
Piloting/Tactics, 6
Pass: No effect
Fail: The Admiral may spend 1 fuel. If not, -1 morale and send the current player to Sickbay.

1 Evasive Maneuver
2 Evasive Maneuver
2 Full Throttle
3 Maximum Firepower
1 Launch Scout

That's +9. No effect.

Players:
Jopi: 2 cards
Had 2 cards remaining: 2 piloting
0 cards remaining.

Rysz: 1 card
Had 1 card remaining: 1 piloting
0 cards remaining.

This leaves 1 piloting 1 tactics to the DD.

DD: 4 cards remaining. Lost 1 politics 1 treachery 1 Engineering 1 Leadership, 1 piloting 1 tactics, (1 leadership or 1 tactics), (??1 piloting?? or ??1 tactics?? (if Jopi sabotaged check 7))

edit: Sabotage doesn't make sense for check #7, in which case the DD looks like this:
DD: 4 cards remaining. Lost 1 politics 1 treachery 1 Engineering 1 Leadership, 2 piloting 1 tactics, (1 leadership or 1 tactics)

Turn 19
Rysz / Starbuck draws 2 Piloting 2 Tactics (1 Leadership OR 1 Engineering)
Rysz plays 3 Strategic planning in an attempt to kill a centurion.
4 cards remaining: 2 Piloting 1 Tactics (1 Leadership OR 1 Engineering)

(At this point he says:

I have 5 cards left, and most of them quite good.

I presume he forgot about the fact that he just played an SP, though.)

 

[randakar]

Turn 20
Jopi draws 1 Leadership 2 Tactics 2 Piloting
Jopi plays 5 Maximum Firepower to hotshot a centurion.
4 cards remaining: 1 Leadership 2 Tactics 1 Piloting


---- ENTERING SLEEPER PHASE ----

DD: 4 cards remaining. Lost 1 politics 1 treachery 1 Engineering 1 Leadership, 1 piloting 1 tactics, (1 leadership or 1 tactics), (??1 piloting?? or ??1 tactics?? (if Jopi sabotaged check 7))

jacob-lundgren: 3 cards remaining: 3 Tactics
sbr: 5 cards remaining: 5 Engineering

Jopi: 4 cards remaining: 1 Leadership 2 Tactics 1 Piloting
Rysz: 4 cards remaining: 2 Piloting 1 Tactics (1 Leadership OR 1 Engineering)
Ciryandor: 4 cards remaining: 2 Politics 1 Leadership 1 Treachery
Herbert-West: 0 cards remaining
Snoopdogg: 5 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 3 Tactics

Turn 21
sbr draws 2 Leadership 2 Engineering 1 Politics
10 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 7 Engineering 1 Politics

The update quotes the following hand sizes:

Adm. CAIN [0] - Sickbay
CAVIL [4] - Caprica
TIGH [5] - Sickbay
Pres. ELLEN [5] - Press Room
STARBUCK [5] - Armory
KAT [6] - Sickbay
TYROL [10] - Hangar Deck

sbr discards 3 - Scientific Research to move and plays 2 - Repair to repair Pegasus CIC.
8 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 5 Engineering 1 Politics
(note how he gets himself down to exactly his maximum hand size ..)

Turn 22
Update says:

Adm. CAIN [0] - Sickbay
CAVIL [4] - Caprica
TIGH [5] - Sickbay
Pres. ELLEN [5] - Press Room
STARBUCK [5] - Armory
KAT [6] - Sickbay
TYROL [8] - Pegasus CIC

Herbert-West draws 1 Tactics (sickbay), then 1 Engineering from research lab
2 cards remaining: 1 Tactics 1 Engineering

Check #11

Low Supplies
Skill check, difficulty 7, Politics/Leadership.
Pass: No effect
Fail: -1 morale. If food is less than 6 [it's not], another -1 morale.

4 Investigative Committee
4 Investigative Committee
1 Consolidate Power
2 Evasive Maneuver
3 Critical Situation
4 Declare Emergency

Pass, no effect.

Players

jacob: 1 card, has 3 cards remaining: 3 Tactics
2 cards remaining: 2 Tactics

sbr: 1 card, has 8 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 5 Engineering 1 Politics
No engineering in this check (the only way to sabotage) so he helped with either 1 leadership or 1 politics. Since the DD only has 1 politics card left 2 of them must have come from players. Both players with politics in their hand only played 1 card. Therefore, both of them played politics.
7 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 5 Engineering

Ciryandor: 1 card, has 4 cards remaining: 2 Politics 1 Leadership 1 Treachery
Must have played 1 politics since that's the only way 3 politics cards could have gotten into this check.
3 cards remaining: 1 Politics 1 Leadership 1 Treachery

Jopi: 1 card, has 4 cards remaining: 1 Leadership 2 Tactics 1 Piloting
Assuming 1 leadership (could have played the piloting card if a cylon, but with a value 2 card that seems unlikely)
edit: If he sabotaged this he played 1 piloting. Given how the DD looks, I cannot rule this out.
3 cards remaining: 2 Tactics 1 Piloting
If he sabotaged this:
3 cards remaining: 1 Leadership 2 Tactics

That leaves 1 politics 1 piloting card for the DD.
This confirms that Jopi sabotaged somewhere (either this one or check #7) with a piloting card - either the piloting card in that check could not have come from the destiny deck as this is the second piloting card in the check, or he sabotaged this check.
(Though to be fair, the way I have been analysing this is not watertight when it comes to assigning blame ..)

DD: 2 cards remaining. Lost 2 politics 1 treachery 1 Engineering 1 Leadership 1 piloting 1 tactics, (1 piloting or 1 tactics) (1 leadership or 1 tactics), (1 piloting or 1 leadership)

edit: Sabotage doesn't make sense for check #7, but Jopi could have sabotaged this in which case the DD looks like this:
DD: 2 cards remaining. Lost 2 politics 1 treachery 1 Engineering 2 Leadership, 2 piloting 1 tactics, (1 leadership or 1 tactics)
Which resolves into:
DD: 2 cards remaining. Lost 2 politics 1 treachery 1 Engineering 2 Leadership, 2 piloting 2 tactics - The DD must have put a tactics card into check #7 in this case

 

[randakar]

The more I think about this situation with check #7 and the piloting card, the more this whole thing feels funny. Putting in a value 1 sabotage card while also putting in a value 4 and a value 2 positive card just doesn't make sense. Nor would it make any sense for Rysz to do so (he claimed to put in a "big help" card, and later on he plays enough piloting to make sabotage impossible...)

However, if Jopi *didn't* put that piloting card in there he would not have had 1 tactics / 1 leadership remaining to put into a later check (#9. I think).

At the same time him sabotaging check #11 with a piloting card would make a ton more sense, considering that that he only played one card and it was past the sleeper phase.

I'm not sure what I'm looking at here. Sabotage seems likely, but GM error (involving Jopi's hand) seems not entirely inplausible either.

 

[randakar]

Turn 23
Update says:

Adm. CAIN [2] - Sickbay
CAVIL [5] - Caprica
TIGH [5] - Sickbay
Pres. ELLEN [4] - Press Room
STARBUCK [5] - Armory
KAT [5] - Sickbay
TYROL [7] - Pegasus CIC

Jacob-Lundgren draws 1 Tactics 1 Treachery
4 cards remaining: 3 Tactics 1 Treachery

Skill check #12

Guilty by Collusion

Skill check 9, Tactics/Leadership.
Pass: the current player may choose to send a character to the Brig.
Fail: -1 morale.

5 Declare Emergency
2 Launch Scout
2 Launch Scout
1 Launch Scout
5 Scientific Research
3 Calculations
3 Human Weakness

That's actually -1. So, -1 morale. Jump prep advances.

DD: 2 cards remaining for this check. Lost 2 politics 1 treachery 1 Engineering 1 Leadership 2 piloting 1 tactics, (1 piloting or 1 tactics) (1 leadership or 1 tactics). This assumes jopi sabotaged either check #7 or check #11, mind.

Adding everything up yields me 1 engineering 1 treachery coming into this check from the DD.


Players:
Jopi: 2 cards
3 cards remaining: 2 Tactics 1 Piloting
Had to be 2 tactics. No piloting in the resulting hand.
1 card remaining: 1 Piloting

If he sabotaged check #11:
3 cards remaining: 1 Leadership 2 Tactics
No piloting in the resulting hand. Could be 2 tactics or 1 Leadership 1 Tactics. Given that the DD could no longer supply tactics, he had to play tactics here.
1 card remaining: 1 Leadership


Rysz: 1 card (big help)
4 cards remaining: 2 Piloting 1 Tactics (1 Leadership OR 1 Engineering)
Had to be 1 leadership. None of the tactics cards was a big help.
3 cards remaining: 2 Piloting 1 Tactics

This leaves 1 engineering 1 tactics unaccounted for.

sbr: 1 card
7 cards remaining: 2 Leadership 5 Engineering
For saborage he'd play 1 Engineering. The 5 scientific research card is perfect for it. I considered him playing something to 'help' and give him some cover but sbr does not draw tactics and I'm 99% certain the leadership card was Rysz's.
6 cards remaining: 2 leadership 4 engineering

Jacob-Lundgren: 1 card
4 cards remaining: 3 Tactics 1 Treachery
Normally I'd be assuming he'd play 1 treachery here, but the DD is down to it's last 2 cards and only 1 treachery card has been seen from it so far. (I triple checked that.) The only alternative is for him to sabotage is to play an engineering card into this, presuming that is his 4th mystery card, but again the DD absolutely had to contain an engineering card and there are no further engineering cards in this check. The only conclusion I can draw is that Jacob was responsible for the 1 Launch Scout card in this check
3 cards remaining 2 Tactics 1 Treachery


OK. Figure this one out - I 'm not sure I can make heads or tails of it and I have to run. Sorry.
edit: Seems that the only explanation I can come up with is Jacob helping a little bit on this check for reasons I cannot quite fathom. Hmn..

 

[Ciryandor]

The more I think about this situation with check #7 and the piloting card, the more this whole thing feels funny. Putting in a value 1 sabotage card while also putting in a value 4 and a value 2 positive card just doesn't make sense. Nor would it make any sense for Rysz to do so (he claimed to put in a "big help" card, and later on he plays enough piloting to make sabotage impossible...)

However, if Jopi *didn't* put that piloting card in there he would not have had 1 tactics / 1 leadership remaining to put into a later check (#9. I think).

At the same time him sabotaging check #11 with a piloting card would make a ton more sense, considering that that he only played one card and it was past the sleeper phase.

I'm not sure what I'm looking at here. Sabotage seems likely, but GM error (involving Jopi's hand) seems not entirely inplausible either.

I also think it's GM error. Try to check out when people were asking for hands; maybe some players had un-updated hands when they were given their PMs.

 

[randakar]

I also think it's GM error. Try to check out when people were asking for hands; maybe some players had un-updated hands when they were given their PMs.

Yeah. It gets worse though - I'm cross checking what the update says with regard to hand sizes (starting on turn 21, which is when Artell started doing that) and that update alone has no less than 3 people who have less cards according to my count than what the update says: Jacob (4 instead of 3), Jopi (6 instead of 4), Rysz (5 instead of 4). (See above, I've edited it in.)

I'm not sure what to do about it though - I will probably just continue the count, see at least if my suspicions regarding the piloting skill set in the DD are correct.

In the end the only thing that matters is: Who is the last cylon? My current guess is Jopi (of course) but because of the inconsistencies I cannot be certain.

 

[Artell]

Oh and I'll need to know Cain's draw.

So is that 3 Tactics or 3 Leadership?