@bitmode I remembered this today and created a bug report for that straight line interpolation based on your findings:
I have been thinking about this and I've come to believe that between this interpolation alone can be a strong factor for why the AI is so ineffective. Going via the straight line "distorts" the plan particularly on edges, where the front has to move much more than in the center. Because of this, edge provinces are much more likely to get higher weights, and AI has to work so much more to push those edges according to "plan". The advance in the center is slowed by having to wait until the edges "catch up".
(It probably won't be THIS bad in practice, as the interpolation is recalculated just as the front shifts, right? So they never actually go for the straight line, they just make the first step towards the straight line. But the strong bias towards expanding the edge is still there.)
I have been thinking about this and I've come to believe that between this interpolation alone can be a strong factor for why the AI is so ineffective. Going via the straight line "distorts" the plan particularly on edges, where the front has to move much more than in the center. Because of this, edge provinces are much more likely to get higher weights, and AI has to work so much more to push those edges according to "plan". The advance in the center is slowed by having to wait until the edges "catch up".
(It probably won't be THIS bad in practice, as the interpolation is recalculated just as the front shifts, right? So they never actually go for the straight line, they just make the first step towards the straight line. But the strong bias towards expanding the edge is still there.)