(Copied over from Reddit - also my post there)
Yesterday I speculated about the game mechanics surrounding combat. Today we'll take a look at what will likely be the first large war facing anyone playing in Central Italy - the Third Samnite War.
The Third Samnite War started in 298 B.C, 5 years after our game starts. Historically, the war was between Rome and a combined alliance of the Etruscan League, the Samnites, Umbria and the Gallic Senones. We can see from this screenshot that all those factions are already in the game (Senones are the bright green strip along the Adriatic). We can even use these two screenshots to gauge the relative strength of the two sides at the start of the game.
ROME has a total force of 35,000 men, 20 Cities, 4 forts and 2 ports, with further allies of 6,000 men and a minimum of 5 more Cities. (Note that there is a band of Roman territory on the Adriatic Coast containing 4 cities)
THE ALLIES, using the above screenshots, have a combined force of 34,000 men (18,000 EL, 8,000 UMB, 8,000 SAM) with a further unknown number from the Senones, 43 Cities (25 EL, 8 UMB, 10 SAM) with a further unknown Senones (at minimum 4, and there are possibly more Samnite and Umbrian cities that aren’t obvious from the screenshots), 7 Forts and 4 ports.
There are also other factors such as manpower and money that will of course be important. Although it’s not clear from the screenshots, we know that Rome’s manpower is roughly 60,000, as is the Etruscan’s. We can estimate that the Allies manpower pool will come to roughly 100,000-120,000. Note that in the third screenshot above, the Devs have used a console command to give Rome 5,000 $$$ to make some buildings, so we can count that out. But there is this screenshot that better explains the situation (note the date of this one and that of the Etruscan forces is taken on the same date). Rome, in short, has more money than the Etruscan League (not historically accurate, but its all subject to change). Frankly I don’t think they need it.
The matchup is very unbalanced. The only hope the Allies have, if we’re using these current figures, is if they can gather their forces together. This is also true historically, though, and the Roman generals frequently split their legions to cause distractions and keep the Allies’ armies apart over the course of the conflict. Before the battle of Sentinum, the largest and most decisive of the Third Samnite War, the Romans drew the Etruscan portion of the combined army away by ordering reserve legions to raid Clusium and its surrounding towns and farms. They then assaulted the combined Senones and Samnite forces, and after a back-and-forth engagement, the Allies were ground down and routed. Roman losses were around 9,000, the allies lost close to 25,000. Livy, who wasn’t born for another 200-odd years but supposedly used sources from the time, wrote that had the Umbrians and Etruscans been present at the battle, the Romans would have faced disaster. It was only by splitting the allied armies that they were able to achieve victory. The remainder of the war was mostly spent carpet-sieging the Samnite lands, as the Etruscans, Umbrians and Senones all withdrew from hostilities.
So how will this be represented in the game? There is still obviously a lot that we don’t know – how will alliances work, how will wars work (there is no current PDS title that would have 3 out of 4 belligerents withdraw from the result of one battle), and how will aggressive expansion work? The end of the war saw the entire Samnium region become incorporated into the furtive Roman state. (That’s the entire teal nation to the South of Rome in the first image linked, if that’s not obvious). I think that we can expect PDS to start with Samnium and Etruria friendly with each other. They didn’t historically have an alliance until the eve of war, so it wouldn’t be accurate to have them start as such 5 years prior, but they are really the only combined force that has the chance to smother Rome in its cradle, as it were, at least if left up to the AI.
If one were to play as Etruria, however, you can envision it playing out quite differently. Carthage could be a threat or an ally to a player in this situation, but the combined forces of the Italian city states and larger tribal confederations would probably be enough, combined with our human ingenuity, to beat Rome.
In short, Rome is clearly marked to be the preeminent power on the peninsula. The surrounding states are going to have a rough time coming together to stop them. In the wise words of Bobby B, 5 separated armies will almost always lose out to 1 combined army of equal strength.
Please note: I've broadly simplified the history of this to keep it succinct. There was of course more nuance to the situation (Lucania was the original defendent and is also visible on the map, south of Samnium), as there always is with history, but I would say that the starting situation of the game does a good job of mirroring the historical balance of power.
TL;DR: Rome will probably win
PS. I can't say enough times - obviously this is still very early in development and everything from the game is subject to change.
Yesterday I speculated about the game mechanics surrounding combat. Today we'll take a look at what will likely be the first large war facing anyone playing in Central Italy - the Third Samnite War.
The Third Samnite War started in 298 B.C, 5 years after our game starts. Historically, the war was between Rome and a combined alliance of the Etruscan League, the Samnites, Umbria and the Gallic Senones. We can see from this screenshot that all those factions are already in the game (Senones are the bright green strip along the Adriatic). We can even use these two screenshots to gauge the relative strength of the two sides at the start of the game.
ROME has a total force of 35,000 men, 20 Cities, 4 forts and 2 ports, with further allies of 6,000 men and a minimum of 5 more Cities. (Note that there is a band of Roman territory on the Adriatic Coast containing 4 cities)
THE ALLIES, using the above screenshots, have a combined force of 34,000 men (18,000 EL, 8,000 UMB, 8,000 SAM) with a further unknown number from the Senones, 43 Cities (25 EL, 8 UMB, 10 SAM) with a further unknown Senones (at minimum 4, and there are possibly more Samnite and Umbrian cities that aren’t obvious from the screenshots), 7 Forts and 4 ports.
There are also other factors such as manpower and money that will of course be important. Although it’s not clear from the screenshots, we know that Rome’s manpower is roughly 60,000, as is the Etruscan’s. We can estimate that the Allies manpower pool will come to roughly 100,000-120,000. Note that in the third screenshot above, the Devs have used a console command to give Rome 5,000 $$$ to make some buildings, so we can count that out. But there is this screenshot that better explains the situation (note the date of this one and that of the Etruscan forces is taken on the same date). Rome, in short, has more money than the Etruscan League (not historically accurate, but its all subject to change). Frankly I don’t think they need it.
The matchup is very unbalanced. The only hope the Allies have, if we’re using these current figures, is if they can gather their forces together. This is also true historically, though, and the Roman generals frequently split their legions to cause distractions and keep the Allies’ armies apart over the course of the conflict. Before the battle of Sentinum, the largest and most decisive of the Third Samnite War, the Romans drew the Etruscan portion of the combined army away by ordering reserve legions to raid Clusium and its surrounding towns and farms. They then assaulted the combined Senones and Samnite forces, and after a back-and-forth engagement, the Allies were ground down and routed. Roman losses were around 9,000, the allies lost close to 25,000. Livy, who wasn’t born for another 200-odd years but supposedly used sources from the time, wrote that had the Umbrians and Etruscans been present at the battle, the Romans would have faced disaster. It was only by splitting the allied armies that they were able to achieve victory. The remainder of the war was mostly spent carpet-sieging the Samnite lands, as the Etruscans, Umbrians and Senones all withdrew from hostilities.
So how will this be represented in the game? There is still obviously a lot that we don’t know – how will alliances work, how will wars work (there is no current PDS title that would have 3 out of 4 belligerents withdraw from the result of one battle), and how will aggressive expansion work? The end of the war saw the entire Samnium region become incorporated into the furtive Roman state. (That’s the entire teal nation to the South of Rome in the first image linked, if that’s not obvious). I think that we can expect PDS to start with Samnium and Etruria friendly with each other. They didn’t historically have an alliance until the eve of war, so it wouldn’t be accurate to have them start as such 5 years prior, but they are really the only combined force that has the chance to smother Rome in its cradle, as it were, at least if left up to the AI.
If one were to play as Etruria, however, you can envision it playing out quite differently. Carthage could be a threat or an ally to a player in this situation, but the combined forces of the Italian city states and larger tribal confederations would probably be enough, combined with our human ingenuity, to beat Rome.
In short, Rome is clearly marked to be the preeminent power on the peninsula. The surrounding states are going to have a rough time coming together to stop them. In the wise words of Bobby B, 5 separated armies will almost always lose out to 1 combined army of equal strength.
Please note: I've broadly simplified the history of this to keep it succinct. There was of course more nuance to the situation (Lucania was the original defendent and is also visible on the map, south of Samnium), as there always is with history, but I would say that the starting situation of the game does a good job of mirroring the historical balance of power.
TL;DR: Rome will probably win
PS. I can't say enough times - obviously this is still very early in development and everything from the game is subject to change.
