Balance of Power : Austria 1.25 AAR

[mackwolfe]

This is a really interesting idea for an AAR. Lurked on a few so thought I'd post now.

Welcome. Thanks for posting .

Subbed. I enjoyed your Tuscany>Italy AAR.

Thank you. Although I never wrote a Tuscany->Italy AAR ( I did Papal State AAR) . But I will take credit anyway

Question for anyone following. In next decade, there will be discrepancy in the power rankings because of institution adoption ( some Great Powers have renaissance, others do not). I have not decided whether to use the Tech cost modifier in calculating the balance ratio or not. If I use the tech modifier, the run will be harder because Ottomans and France - who are near #1 - tend to adopt fairly early before PLC and Muscovy adopt, exacerbating the ratio. A challenge is a good thing. But then having balance go out of whack because someone adopted an institution just does not feel right. Thoughts?

 

[Hootieleece]

I would play it almost Historical with France and the Ottomans as main targets regardless and helping other powers when you can. Also try to break up any miniblobs in HRE that should keep the number of states up and give you some IA.

Now you see why the Spanish Alliance was necessary in 16th century...…

Sorry about "misremembering" the AAR!

 

[stnylan]

Question for anyone following. In next decade, there will be discrepancy in the power rankings because of institution adoption ( some Great Powers have renaissance, others do not). I have not decided whether to use the Tech cost modifier in calculating the balance ratio or not. If I use the tech modifier, the run will be harder because Ottomans and France - who are near #1 - tend to adopt fairly early before PLC and Muscovy adopt, exacerbating the ratio. A challenge is a good thing. But then having balance go out of whack because someone adopted an institution just does not feel right. Thoughts?

My gut feeling is to ignore the tech modifier, because by the final decades everyone who matters *should* be at 100%

But I suppose you could make the tech modifier a sort of "challenge mode", above and beyond just development.

 

[mackwolfe]

Now you see why the Spanish Alliance was necessary in 16th century...…

True that. But in this run, things may not imitate real life, and it is likely someone other than Castile will help Austria check French power. see next installment.

 

[mackwolfe]

1460-1470: Punishing Agression

Fresh from establishing rightful Hapsburg control over Hungary, the HRE flexes its new muscles and forces Munster and Hesse to return unlawful territory, and they do:

It is nice to have your orders followed . And to prove I am serious about this empire business, I take action when Trier insolently refuses to return Nassau:

(DOW on Trier and friends, inset shows Diplomatic ideas taken with innovativeness bonus)

On Trier's side were several german minros. On ours was Poland and Lithuania. So no contest. The war does trigger a small coalition led by Florence, but I ignore the puny Italians knowing I had a big alliance block to protect me.

Strategy for the war was to peace out the enemy one by one , and finish with Trier. I start with Munster, who is quickly occupied and forced to release Cleves as an independent prince, and cede Groningen to us:

(peace with Munster , insets show coalition started by Florence, England and Ottomans consolidating their backyards)

I chose to annex Groningen ( instead of releasing Frisia) to give me a power base in the North, so that I can intervene against future Center of Reformations in the area. I then proceed to peace out Palatinate , Frankfurt and Baden for money and prestige. Finally , it is Trier's turn:

(peace with Trier, discovery of silver in Tirol, changes in Iberia leading to Castile rivaling Austria, England consolidating Ireland)
In the peace , I return Berg to Cleves and release Nassau. Cleves really loves us now, having first released them in peace, and now returned a core to them.
During the war, I had the happy event of the Schwaz silver mines , giving a big boost to my gold income. But I also get the bad news of a Castilian rivalry . What happened is Portugal beat up Morocco, who dropped as a valid rival for Castile and they picked us instead . So much for the old Austrian-Spanish alliance against France.

The release of Cleves and Nassau helps shore up imperial authority a bit . BUt this soon negated by Hesse annexing Mainz. But since Mainz was an elector, I quickly promote a grateful Cleves to their place:

(electoral college of the HRE. Succession is safe for now)

FOllowing these imperial interventions, I rest for a few years and accumulate money to Embrace the Renaissance and tech up to MIL 5. BUt my peace is rudely interrupted by a DOW from Florence, citing coalition WAR!:

(FLorence declares punitive war on Austria).
This took me by surprise, as I had several strong allies ( Poland, Milan and Brandenburg) and the coalition did not have a single Great Power. But I guess the annexation of Groningen did not go well with the other HRE princes. In hindsight, I should have checked the coalition icon when I made peace with Munster.

The next screenshot shows the two sides and the balance of forces ( about even):

I had the overall stronger side . But I was at risk of losing my smaller allies - Milan and Brandenburg - in separate peace treaties , while the enemy did not have worry about this . My first step was to neutralize Bosnia by annhilating their army in battle and then fully occupying them:

(general Schruder stackwipes the Bosnian , inset shows their capital falling 9 months later)

I then wheel my army north to defend Brandenburg who was getting overrun by enemy stacks. Plzen turns out to be my God-general's favorite battlefield:

(example of two stackwipes at Plzen - there were others)

THese skirmishes are then followed by a big battle at Straubing, a battle that starts medium and then attracts every stack in the vicinity :

My God general comes out victorious , as always ( I don't think he has lost a single battle yet!) .

The victory at Straubing gets me to within -28 of a white peace. But things go south again, as I divert my general to sieging Bavarian forts, and the enemy manages to mount a counter-offensive and defeats my allies . It is at this point that Burgundy decides to attack Liege:

(enemy counter-offensive underway when I get a CTA from Liege)

Man that CTA hurts. I kept the alert on screen for 2 months, watching how the war with Florence was going before I painfully declined, and lost -10 Imperial Authority . I really, really , wanted to answer and help Liege to gain IA. But there was no hope of reaching Liege at this moment, and I feared that a single Burgundian stack could tip the war in Florence's favor.
Fearing another external event like this ( an Ottoman attack on Hungary, for example), I hurry up the war with Florence and decide to take the war to their homeland. Once I captured Landshut in Bavaria, I use general Schruder to wipe out some stacks in Plzen area again, then head south to relieve Milan:

ONce the siege of Milan is lifted, it is onwards to Florence which is sieged by the God-general himself ( he has +3 siege pip) . Florence falls after 229 days:

(fall of Firenze , inset shows Burgundy annexing Liege)

But despite the loss of their capital, the Florentines would not agree to peace. It takes the capture of Ferrara, the carpet occupation of Papal States and Tuscany, the siege of Rome and another victory at Plzen to convince them of the error of their ways:

Finally, Florence takes a white peace.

I did debate at this point whether to continue the war and gain territory. In particular , I was eyeing either Ferrara ( estuary for trade in Venice node), or Papal state provinces ( to prevent Shadow Kingdom event). But I did not want to risk the coalition returning soon ( I had dipped under 50AE with everyone by now). And worried that an unlucky event ( eg. death of my beloved general, or Poland quitting the war ) would make my life miserable. So I played it safe and took the peace. Was it a mistake? Feel free to give your opinion.

This was the toll of this pointless war:

In the meantime, France had gobbled up Provence. Only Burgundy and a couple of English provinces stood between the blue blob and its natural borders. Apparently this leads Burgundy to seek an alliance with us:

(Burgundy asks for alliance from Austria)

I stared at this screen for some time. I had lost the ability to ally Castile as they have rivaled me. So Burgundy would be a natural ally to contain France. BUT, and this is a big but, Burgundy was the largest drain on imperial authority at this moment. If this was a standard run, I would have declined, and hoped for a French - Burgundian war and the inheritance. But this is not a usual run, and I decide to go for the alliance to counter France. This is my diplomatic map, with the 7 Great Powers labeled:

By allying Burgundy, the chance of the Burgundian inheritance firing drops tremendously . Burgundy is unlikely to get declared on as long as I am their ally. ANd if France does indeed declare, my reading of the "Succession Crisis" event says that France and HRE cannot be at war . So this alliance may very well mean Burgundy is here to stay.

By the way, another country that may very well persist into the future are the Mamluks. I am planning on pouncing on Ottomans the moment they declare on Egypt. I wonder what Mamluks would do if they are allowed to survive.

And as you can see in the screenshot, there are really 7 great powers in Europe. Three Eastern powers ( Poland, Ottomans, Muscovy) , three Western powers ( Castile, France, England) and one Central power keeping the balance ( Austria) .

Maybe I should adjust my criterion to NOT use the institution tech modifier ( makes the run easier), but use 7 great powers instead of 6 ( makes the run harder).
By this adjusted criterion , the current ratio between first place and 7th place is : 496/333= 1.489 which is barely, just barely, balanced.

 

[stnylan]

I think the logic of a Burgundian alliance is inescapable at this point given the stated aims of this run. France must be contained. I suppose a real concern is, if you thwart them into Burgundy they may plough through Savoy and into Italy.

 

[Tom D.]

Indeed, if Burgundy continues to expand now that it has your blessing so to speak because of the alliance, the IA will go down south some time in the future. They are probably too big to add their lands to the HRE. If you were "lucky", they could lose their capital in a war against France and if they get their capital relocated in the HRE you could reconquest it for them later. But chances are that it doesn't go that well and that Burgundy would have to lose half of their lands for this to happen, which both strengthens France as well as reduces the usefulness of Burgundy as an ally. Tough choices, didn't I say that before in another AAR of you too ?

 

[atwix]

This took me by surprise, as I had several strong allies ( Poland, Milan and Brandenburg) and the coalition did not have a single Great Power. But I guess the annexation of Groningen did not go well with the other HRE princes. In hindsight, I should have checked the coalition icon when I made peace with Munster.

tsk tsk. you can't forget that, especially on very hard

But there was no hope of reaching Liege at this moment, and I feared that a single Burgundian stack could tip the war in Florence's favor.
Fearing another external event like this

it would have become harder to peace out coalition war also, as florence would get MORE "relative strength of alliances" malus against acepting peace. point being, any enemy in a war is considered an "ally" of the other enemies in other wars for the modifier "relative strength of alliances".

So I played it safe and took the peace. Was it a mistake? Feel free to give your opinion.

anything but Provence would have been double AE, not worth it. if you expand south, i'd diplovassalise OPM victims of other wars and use reconquest cb.

 

[mackwolfe]

tsk tsk.

I saw that comment coming.
You know I always get in coalition trouble. At least I didn't get a coalition in the Pacifica run

as florence would get MORE "relative strength of alliances" malus against acepting peace. point being, any enemy in a war is considered an "ally" of the other enemies in other wars for the modifier "relative strength of alliances".

I did not know that. Very useful to know. thanks.

 

[ArzhurG]

If you are adding half of the dev of Muscovy's and England's vassals, so that their dev doesn't just count as a half, why do you not do the same for your own subjects? Are PUs exempt from this rule? If so you should still count your vassal Ragusa.

 

[Tumultuosus]

If you are adding half of the dev of Muscovy's and England's vassals, so that their dev doesn't just count as a half, why do you not do the same for your own subjects? Are PUs exempt from this rule? If so you should still count your vassal Ragusa.

Half of the dev of every subject is added to a nation's dev in the great power tab. He (Austria) is in the great power list (n°3) so the game shows it, but muscovy and england aren't great powers, so the game doesn't show him their total dev score, he has to do the math himself.

 

[ArzhurG]

Half of the dev of every subject is added to a nation's dev in the great power tab. He (Austria) is in the great power list (n°3) so the game shows it, but muscovy and england aren't great powers, so the game doesn't show him their total dev score, he has to do the math himself.

Thanks for clarifying. I was wrong, as I assumed that he was adding the vassal dev to the GP score, and not the dev of the country.

 

[mackwolfe]

he has to do the math himself.

THat was one reason I initially went with 6 Great Powers, to avoid having to do the math. But it seems I will have to do it regardless , so might as well track 7 european powers. 7 is a special number after all.

 

[mackwolfe]

1470-1480: Natural Growth

The balance of power is soon put to the test when France declares Reconquest on England for their cores. France was allied to Scotland, England to Portugal ( the usual setup as most players are aware). I start to improve relations with England, thinking to intervene in the war. But when I see the French army size in the ledger, I chicken out:

The +50% to force limit due to the "Very Hard" setting really makes a big difference. Even if I go to my force limit , which I cannot financially support, I would be outnumbered by the *current* French army. So I decide to wait a bit, let France waste some manpower on sieging English and Portuguese forts, and allow England to beat up Scotland. In the meantime, I wanted to get MIL tech 6 to have parity with France.
While I waited, 3 events conspire to permanently delay my intervention. First, my beloved general Albrecht Shruder passes away. He served for 3 chapters , in basically every single war, and won every battle. He deserves his own goodbye screenshot:

(death of the hero of Plzen )
I doubt I will see another like him in this run.
The other two delaying factors were a Styrian rebellion ( via event) and Ottomans declaring on Venice:

I had designs on Venice myself . But the Venetian navy always stood in the way. Now I could take advantage of the Ottoman navy .
But first, another distraction:

(CTA from Poland against Teutons as we unlock free war tax age ability, insets show Iberian Wedding firing, England taking a bite out of Scotland)

I get called into a war by my faithful ally Poland. THis is an alliance I want to nurture as a balance against the Ottomans ( and to protect my own back) . So I agree of course. I let my PU juniors fight on my behalf while I keep my army at the ready to pounce on Venice. And pounce I do the moment the Ottoman navy shows up:

(DOW and battle of Venice, thanks to the Ottoman navy. Inset shows integration of Ragusa)

My army makes quickwork of the Venetians and I siege them down, while my ally Milan takes their core at Brescia. Once Venice falls, I have to siege down some of their other allies before they finally give up the Jewel of the Adriatic:

(Peace with Venice )
Now I have the entire Veneto state in my hand. Coring is expensive because these are full cores, but will be worth it. At some point, I will be moving my trade capital to Venice node.

Meanwhile, France and England finish their fight, and France takes all their cores ( minus Calais) back:

(Peace between England and France, inset shows diplovassalization of East Frisia thanks to our province in Groningen)

So we now have several Great Powers experiencing some "natural" growth: Austria and Ottomans at the expense of Venice, Poland at the expense of the Teutons, Castile at the expense of Aragon and Naples, France at the expense of England, England at the expense of Scotland. That left Muscovy, who was fighting NOvogorod. But , surprisingly, the Novgorodians had snagged an Ottoman alliance and end up surviving to a white peace:

(Novgorod survives thanks to Ottoman alliance, inset shows my effort at intervening )

I had tried to intervene in that war, by declaring on Ottomans ( I have a claim on the gold mine in Kossovo), but before I could recruit a few more regiments for the war, peace happened.
I was a bit surprised at the Ottoman presence in that war. Is someone else playing "Balance of power" ?
In any case, that brings us to the end of the decade and time for the power rankings:

For the first time in the run, I do not have 7 Powers within 67% of leader. England had dropped too low after the loss of its French provinces. Nipping at England's heels is Burgundy . And , as it happens, they are actually at war over Calais. One of them will eventually be the 7th Power. Denmark is not far behind, although their Swedish minion might eventually break free.

My biggest challenge, as stnylan has mentioned several times, is France. France is allied to Savoy ( who is still in the Empire, so under my protection as well). So if France wants to grow now, they will have to go through Burgundy or Castile.

As for immediate plans , I want to improve my finances , and I am hoping for a chance to swipe Kossovo from Ottomans. Money would certainly help bail out my Hungarian junior, who is in a debt spiral:

 

[Legosim]

Love your AAR style-- awesome stuff!

 

[Tom D.]

I think it would've been difficult to stop France, at least at this point: as long as they have those cores they will declare for it anytime they can. Besides, don't forget that both Hungary and Bohemia have a gold mine! So you could develop those so that they have some more money and in the end if you will integrate them you'll have some more money for yourself too. For position on the map and gold mines you're in a lucky spot actually, those are probably the only 3 gold mines so close to each other in Europe, barring Kosovo of course.

 

[petertju]

I only see this AAR now, good to have you back in action so fast again

Exciting ruleset, I'm curious to see how it goes, it seems to look quite prosperous so far. Will you at a certain point also have to lose dev yourself to keep the balance? Will you only try to hamstring the stronger nations or also try to push the weaker ones?

Btw, in response to your Pacifist AAR, I started a 'peaceful' game myself. This is one of my first games with a ruleset, so far I enjoy it a lot! Rules:

1) no coring, neither by me or my vassals.
2) no force vassalizing, only peaceful vassals.
3) I have to refuse aggressive PU's, I can only defend them.
4) no allies, except when I plan to vassalize them on the short term.
5) only taking ideas that have diplo-modifiers, so no quantity/quality allowed, but aristocrat is allowed.
6) no mercs.

I did start as France, ofc a baby nation, but in the middle of Europe. Partly it's more fun, because of lots of nations I can release and cores I can return. I'm actually adding rules while playing, like the no-mercs and diplo-idea rules. This was just because I hadn't taken them so far, so why not keep following it?

I'm liking this game a lot, so thank you for motivating me to find a new gamestyle (super weird to have excess admin all the time xD )

 

[Tom D.]

Basically if you're decent in the PU games you can acquire lots of power through careful planning and acquiring PUs. @Badesumofu did a tall France AAR a while ago and while it didn't have as much rules as you have, it was interesting to follow and incredible to see how powerful you could become with just this little amount of land he held. Definitely a good suggestion to read if you're interested in more ruleset AARs.

 

[petertju]

Basically if you're decent in the PU games you can acquire lots of power through careful planning and acquiring PUs. @Badesumofu did a tall France AAR a while ago and while it didn't have as much rules as you have, it was interesting to follow and incredible to see how powerful you could become with just this little amount of land he held. Definitely a good suggestion to read if you're interested in more ruleset AARs.

Definitely true! The only big disadvantage: my PU game is quite weak, I've read a lot about it, like @atwix pu thread, but I'm just not able to get it rolling often in my games.

In this game I'm also not paying that much attention to it so far. I got one on accident on Styria, but it was offensive. Maybe I'll use it to get nations that I can't release anything of.

 

[stnylan]

At least England didn't lose any of her core provinces to the war with France as can sometimes happen, and is well placed to finish off Scotland in due course.

I wonder who else Castille has rivalled? I know you - but have they done England too? It would be a same if so because really you need a Castille-England alliance to thwart further French expansion that ways, and your own alliance with Burgundy and France's alliance with Savoy does the same. Alas I doubt the AI would be so accomodating.