Balance of Power : Austria 1.25 AAR

[mackwolfe]

The balance of power is an old concept, dating back to Thucidydes. England and Austria were the European powers that espoused it the most as an explicit foreign policy. EU4 models it by having a Great Power designation and allowing the GPs to intervene in wars to keep the balance . In practice, this seldom works, and a few runaway powers end up dominating the scene.

In this run, I will play as Austria with the express purpose of maintaining the balance of power between the European nations. I will use the GP table to define power balance as follows:

Power is balanced if the rating of the #1 European power is no larger than 150% of the 6th ranked European Great Power.

In other words, if the 6th ranked power has 500 Dev, the top European power cannot be more than 750 Dev.

At the beginning of each decade , I will take a screenshot of GP table and see if power is balanced or not. If balanced I will give myself +1 score, and if not balanced, a 0 . At the end of the run, I will tally the total. Since the game runs for 377 years, the maximum balance score is 38 - assuming I play all the way through.

A few notes about the rule:
1) this refers to European powers only, defined as nations whose capital is in Europe. This means Ming , Mamluks , Timurids, Persia etc do not count. Ottomans and Muscovy are included of course. I thought hard about this and the reasoning behind it is that ROTW nations will often leap onto and drop out of the table all of sudden due to institution adoption and will mess up the table. Also, they historically did not matter much for the European diplomatic game and given I will be playing as Austria, getting to affect those nations will be hard.

2) I picked the 6th ranked power for the ratio after careful thought. I did not pick last (i.e 7th since Ming takes one spot), because of ROTW countries occasionally making their way on the table and suddenly changing the bottom of the rankings. In other words, there are sometimes only 6 European GPs on the table. Also, maintaining 7 European powers in equal power may well be impossible.
I did not pick 5th power because that may be too easy . Among the top GPs will probably be Ottomans, Russia, France and the Player . Propping up one more is not that hard. Propping up 2 more is much more challenging.

3) I am torn about whether to allow the human player to be ranked 1st or expressly prohibit that. In any case, the human player still counts in the table and cannot be more than 50% larger than the 6th ranked power.

If things play out as I anticipate, I will spend a lot of time trying to keep Ottomans, France and Russia under control. And will need to prop up the 5th and 6th power to balance things out.

I chose Austria based on a suggestion from @atwix in another thread. And because they are the diplomatic power par excellence in eu4. And being HRE will one to punch above their Dev weight.

 

[Tom D.]

Subbed for another excellent and unique mackwolfe AAR. Hopefully as you're playing as Austria you won't screw up the scores by "unwillingly" PU'ing half of Europe with superior Habsburg dynasty . Anyway, looking forward to this!

 

[stnylan]

Well I look forward to another classic "concept" AAR from your good self.

 

[mackwolfe]

Hopefully as you're playing as Austria you won't screw up the scores by "unwillingly" PU'ing half of Europe

Gotta give the Hapsburgs some love . For the sake of balance in AAR land .

Seriously though, since PUs count half as much in the development table, they are a good way to punch above your weight. Another reason I picked Austria for this run, and it will certainly feature in my strategy.

 

[firezatswill9]

Interesting concept, very different from the typical "balancing the great powers by having only one great power." This has me very intrigued, so best of luck to you, I can't wait to see how this turns out!

 

[mackwolfe]

1444-1450: Lucky Austria

I will start with the settings screen:

For the first time in an AAR, I will play on very hard setting . THis will make the AI more powerful and make the run more challenging. Although it may also help me since I plan on playing AI's against each other.
A quick survey of AUstria's ideas shows it is geated to diplomacy and defense, and not outright blobbing. Again , a good fit for this run.

My opening strategy basically follows @remanemporor video on Austria

Although things may have changed with the missions system ( particularly, there is now a guaranteed mission to PU Hungary), I think most of the video still applies.

My first move is to milk the estates for points, so as to develop the gold mine in Tirol and put our finances on a good footing:

Now to boost the influence and loyalty of the estates, I grant them provinces, to the point that all my provinces except the capital and Tirol are actually assigned to an estate. I specifically avoid using the "Convene Diet" , "Grant Charters" and "Seek Support" interactions because these cost -5 prestige each. And to claim thrones , you need to have more prestige than your target . Which brings us to the diplomatic game.

My top priority at start is to get the PU on Bohemia. Bohemia starts in interregnum, and by marrying them, there is a chance a blessed Hapsburg will get on their throne. And Lo and behold this happens almost immediately ( 1st month):

(screenshot of Hapsburg on Bohemian throne , England already at war with France before Dec 11 rolled around!)

I quickly look for allies to help me with upcoming Bohemian war, and enlist the help of Saxony . I then claim throne on Bohemia and without further ado, declare war:

This is certainly a different tempo from my most recent Pacifica AAR.

Bohemia was allied to two minors, and my plan was to knock them out first, letting the Bohemians siege my forts in the meantime. I did not recruit to my force limit ( which was 51 at the time, thanks to being HRE ) because of money . So I start the war outnumbered. But I soon capture Wurttemberg's capital and kick them out for money and prestige:

I then move my stack to Luneburg. This when I get one of the luckiest events in the early game, the "Foreign Military Expert" event.

(screeshot showing hiring of a great general via event, first stackwipe, fall of Wien to enemy)

I get a certain Albrecth Schruder ( not very foreign sounding if you ask me!), but with a god-like 5/5/5/3 stat. Talk about lucky Austria. He proceeds to stackwipe enemy stacks with ease, turning war score in our favor despite the loss of Wien to the enemy.

Things get mildly complicated soon after, when my ally Saxony sends me a defensive CTA as a result of a succession war against Brunswick:

After waiting on the CTA a month, and realizing that Saxony had Brandenburg on their side already, I agree to join them. Brunswick was too weak to affect my own war with Bohemia. And eventually, Brunswick loses the war and coughs up 2 provinces to Saxony.

As for the war with Bohemia, my god general manages stackwipe victories a few times, and then directs the siege of Prague. Once the enemy capital falls, we have enough warscore to enforce the union:

(peace giving Austria a PU over Bohemia - Silesia remains a vassal of Bohemia)
I immediately start to improve relations with Bohemia, whose liberty desire was 95% after the peace. But this quickly goes down to about 70 .
Because I gave nothing in the peace to Saxony, they soon break the alliance with me. I retaliate by demanding return of Unlwaful Territory from them.

With my first immediate aim achieved, I take my first serious look at Europe and the current balance of Power:

Things are fairly balanced still. Top ranked France at 347 is only 10% larger than bottom ranked Muscovy ( although they are 5th ranked european GP, with TImurids popping up to displace 6th place Castile at 243).

Now I debate whether to attack Venice or not. They are tied up with Ottomans and I have set them as rivals. But if I back stab-them now, I would be helping Ottomans who are potentially the biggest threat to the balance of power. So, for now, I am holding back. And as the new decade starts, things are pretty stable . I will post that screenshot to calculate the "balance of power" score, but otherwise it is pretty close to the last one:

So the first chapter ends with a "win" on the balance score. But I anticipate that France will grow once they annex some land from England, who may drop down to last place. Poland and Ottomans will both likely grow. If I manage to pass Castile myself , I would be the 6th ranked power and may be able to keep things balanced that way. Unless Castile gets the Wedding , in which case they will leapfrog both Austria and England.

 

[stnylan]

So Europe does start fairly balanced, but as you note several powers are primed for rapid expansion, in one case at the expense of another.

If I were to guess France and the Turks will be the biggest threat, potentially recreating Austria's real-life strategic headache.

 

[mackwolfe]

This has me very intrigued, so best of luck to you, I can't wait to see how this turns out!

Thanks and welcome aboard. I hope you will also be able to help with advice . You had great suggestions in my other AARs.

 

[mackwolfe]

If I were to guess France and the Turks will be the biggest threat, potentially recreating Austria's real-life strategic headache.

And just like IRL , I may need an alliance with Castile to balance things out. We shall see.

 

[stnylan]

And just like IRL , I may need an alliance with Castile to balance things out. We shall see.

Oh I meant to ask how far you see yourself pursuing imperial reforms

 

[mackwolfe]

Oh I meant to ask how far you see yourself pursuing imperial reforms

To be honest, I am not sure. I think passing the reforms will certainly make my game easier, especially the Erbkaisterum ( hereditary empire). But , revoking the privilegia may be counterproductive as it would likely put Austria too far ahead and out of balance.

Having said that , it is difficult - I think - to pass the reforms without resorting to blobbing / adding provinces to the empire . I have not played Austria in a long, long time ( before Institutions came about ), so do not have a feel for this part of the game.

 

[atwix]

Subbed for another excellent and unique mackwolfe AAR. Hopefully as you're playing as Austria you won't screw up the scores by "unwillingly" PU'ing half of Europe with superior Habsburg dynasty . Anyway, looking forward to this!

i'm sure his PU will all be immediatly abandoned if they victim is in european GP list.

right?

For the first time in an AAR, I will play on very hard setting . THis will make the AI more powerful and make the run more challenging. Although it may also help me since I plan on playing AI's against each other.

wait wut.

you wanna go hardcore huh! oh boy.

good luck!

This is certainly a different tempo from my most recent Pacifica AAR.

i chuckled.

So Europe does start fairly balanced, but as you note several powers are primed for rapid expansion, in one case at the expense of another.

If I were to guess France and the Turks will be the biggest threat, potentially recreating Austria's real-life strategic headache.

in this AAR, that was my challenge to @mackwolfe

use espionage and diplomacy to contain them, and others.

we'll see how it goes

 

[mackwolfe]

use espionage and diplomacy to contain them, and others.

I doubt espionage and diplomacy are enough, certainly not in the early game. But I hope to use them more near the end.
And happy to see you following this.

wait wut. you wanna go hardcore huh! oh boy.

WE can't have Ottomans that fold easily like last time, can we?

 

[mackwolfe]

1450-1460: Joining The Club

I left off having secured a PU over Bohemia. I was watching the Ottoman-Venetian war over Albania with interest, not wanting to interrupt the Venetians while they fought my future nemesis. But just two months into the new chapter, Venice makes a whitepeace with Ottomans leaving Albania alone. I take this as my signal to attack them, and I hurry up when I see Lucca join their trade league:

Strategy for the war is simple. I park my army with my god-general on Treviso and dare them to attack it:

Meanwhile Albania gets annexed by Ottomans, and France finishes its war with England pushing the latter down to 273 Dev, and getting themselves up to 407 ( ratio: 1.49) . After sieging Treviso for 260 days, it surrenders to general Shruder. I then turn my attention to chasing Venice's minions who had busied themselves attacking Bohemia and Silesia:

So , it turns out Bohemia was a huge help despite them being disloyal, because they sucked up the brunt of the enemy attacks. I manage to stackwipe the enemy allies one by one , and I siege Dithmarschen and eventually capture it:

(screenshot of Dithmarschen army getting stackwiped before we lay siege to their city- inset shows PLC annexing TO land)
I then do the same to Lucca:

(fall of Lucca, inset shows Castile annexing Granada)

I avoid making separate peace treaties with the enemy minors, so as to keep my warscore with Venice high. Once Dalmatia , their last mainland fort is taken, I make peace with them :

I take the rich province of Verona, along with Treviso and its fort ,and Istria to complete my state of Carniola . Anything more would have triggered a coalition. And I get enough money to cover my 4 loans I took during the war. A good result. And I owe a lof of the success to my Bohemia junior partner, who became loyal at the end and helped capture Dalmatia for me (as an aside, Silesia helped with the fighting from the start - they were loyal to their overlord and so ventured out of their land to attack the enemy)

The immediate effect of annexing this much land is the completion of the "Decline of Hungary" mission:

This gives a Restoration of Union CB on Hungary .

I initially decide to wait on enforcing the CB, since I had till 1465. I was hoping to get Poland to help with the fight. But I only had 4 favors with them, and would reach 10 favors in 1460 or so. I did not want to wait and possibly lose my god general by then . Also, PLC is unreliable for offensive wars as they often get into debt from fighting TO ( I know that from a recent Novgorod run when they abandoned me ). So when I find Milan willing to help, I decide to declare while general Schruder was still in good health:

(DOW on Hungary for PU)
Hungary had a good size army (~ 40K) and some good allies. Strategy for the war was to let my minions Bohemia and Silesia , together with my ally Milan, absorb Hungary's attacks, while I go straight for their heart with my awesome general .

(Schruder wreaks havoc in the Hungarian plain)
Having a 3 star general at this stage is really a game changer. Few RNG events rank that high on the makes-a-difference scale.
After stackwiping enough Hungarian troops, I manage to spare enough to siege down Pest and capture it:

(fall of enemy capital , inset shows Ottomans annexing Byzantium)
By 1457 , the enemy resistance crumbles as they run out of troops and I start to carpet siege. I also get a CTA offer from my ally Brandenburg and I call them in to help speed things up:

(Brandenburg joins the fight to give the coup de grace , inset shows France annexing Brittany and jumping to 466 Dev)

A year later, I capture Ragusa who I decide to vassalize in a separate peace ( they are more useful as a naval vassal than directly annexing, also a direct annexation risked too much aggressive expansion and an early coalition - but vassalizing costs an extra relations slot) . And soon after, Hungary itself agrees to the personal union:

And apparently Serbia had declared war on Hungary earlier, and I find myself now in a defensive war with the Serbs. This is a quick fight as the small country cannot fight the combined forces of HUngary+Austria+Bohemia+Silesia+Ragusa:

(war with Serbia, as we are promoted to Great Power Status , inset shows Castile annexing a good chunk of Aragon)

Serbia is overrun in a few months, and I wait till January 1649 to annex them, to avoid a big coalition:

The annexation of Serbia upsets many neighbors, but is totally worth it as it cuts off Bosnia from the Ottomans, and gives me a nice defensible frontier.

And this would be the last major action of this chapter. Time to calculate the balance score. France had grown a lot, and are now over 50% larger than England. But thanks to Austria entering the club of the Great Powers, the top 6 powers are balanced. But barely

(calculation of the Balance score. Muscovy is 6th ranked from ledger, and adding 1/2 its vassals development will put it just above the threshold needed) Cumulative balance score so far is : 2 of 2 .
Biggest threat right now is France who is one Burgundian inheritance or English war away from breaking the limit, unless England or Russia pick up the slack.
I will close with my diplomatic map.

I had allied and married too many countries in order to ensure I get elector support and get part of the Burgundian inheritance. This is putting a drain on my DIP generation as I am 4 over the limit. I will need to switch focus to DIP as soon as I unlock the first idea slot, which is most likely going to be Diplomatic Ideas.

 

[Tom D.]

That's a lot of PUs already, hopefully you can use them in your fight against France and the Ottomans once they grow too fast.

 

[stnylan]

So with a defensive set against the Ottos, it does look like France is the tricky one. I foresee a recurring headache.

 

[mackwolfe]

That's a lot of PUs already, hopefully you can use them in your fight against France and the Ottomans once they grow too fast.

That is the idea. I may add one more PU at some point, if the chance arises. Would only add more if I do not end up too large. I may or may not integrate my unions. I think I get more bang per Dev keeping them as unions, but they are a drain on diplo relations. I will certainly integrate vassals like Ragusa.

I do expect natural growth of all the great powers ( e.g England and Castile will grow once they get CNs') . My aim is to keep them all growing slowly in parallel.

 

[mackwolfe]

So with a defensive set against the Ottos, it does look like France is the tricky one. I foresee a recurring headache.

I will wait and see what France does next. If they attack England, I may get involved on England's side via Enforce peace.

I am not sure whether I want the Burgundian inheritance to fire or not. I am most likely to get the imperial lands , but then Austria and France become too large, and I would then need to actively help England or Muscovy to keep up. An independent Burgundy may keep France in check more effectively ( but would be a drain on imperial authority).

 

[WhimsySheep9]

This is a really interesting idea for an AAR. Lurked on a few so thought I'd post now.

 

[Hootieleece]

Subbed. I enjoyed your Tuscany>Italy AAR.