Axis Major Alt history path

[imvdm]

In light of the recent DD, I would like start a discussion concerning the potential plausibility of Axis Major going anti Fascist by 1936:

Germany: As the DD indicates, by that point the German army is the only credible political power that can oppose the Nazi rule, and it does have strong monarchist sympathy within. There exist no credible communist/leftist power within Germany by 1936, thus going left shouldn’t be possible.

Italy: Famous turn coats during both wars, might take the Romanian model to switch sides incase war go south (potential civil war with the socialist republic). Also it’s domestic politics is hardly ever stable, leaving enough possibilities for internal coup/uprising.

Japan: Culturally Fanatical Monarchist/Millitant , basically no creditable force exist within to push for communism. Most democratic reformist at the time are also anti military, which renders it worthless in a WW2 game. The Emperor/establishment however might choose to reconcile with the West, opening room for a democratic path.

Any historical fact on this direction would be much appreciated.

 

[aono]

Japan: Culturally Fanatical Monarchist/Millitant , basically no creditable force exist within to push for communism. Most democratic reformist at the time are also anti military, which renders it worthless in a WW2 game. The Emperor/establishment however might choose to reconcile with the West, opening room for a democratic path.

The Emperor only. The only possibility in Japan to go west and became democratic power would be direct demands from Emperor himself, and it would be civil war (between military who support Emperor's orders because, well, he is Emperor for gods sake, and between military who believes that Emperor should be protected and not bothered with direct country control).

 

[Ted52]

First of all, the Italy "turncoat" thing. Funny meme, bruv. Italy was defeated in war. Then the victorious allies placed a friendly government (an at least nominally democratic one at that) in place in the areas they controlled whereas Benito fled north setting up the RSI. I know the Paradox Community likes to give Italy shit every day of the week, but it's not like Mussolini woke up one day and said "I'm gonna betray Adolf and join the Allies". That's not what happened.

I cannot see how that would lead you to go "oh yeah Italy can go socialist but Germany can't". Germany had a big support base for "leftist" (by which I assume democratic or communist), just like Italy did. Nazism was not something that everyone in the Weimar Republic just accepted. The German public certainly did not support the return of the monarchy and the idea that the military just jerked themselves into sleep every night hoping for the Kaiser to return I would view as historical myth as well.
The German military leadership was certainly anti-communist, but according to Janusz Piekalkiewicz has to be seen divided among the lines of committed nazis like Rommel, Guderian and Hausser and career militarymen like Manstein.
It has to be conceded that the latter group would have probably favored a return to the monarchy on the grounds of "at least it is not the nazis, but still militaristic enough that we can keep our jobs and our fancy uniforms", but like Manstein's involvement in the restructing of the West German Bundeswehr shows, they had absolutely no problem just assimilating into whatever system they wanted. And on that note, Wehrmacht generals like R. Bamler, A. Brandt, W. Freytag, V. Müller, H. v. Weech, H. Wulz and others also joined the NVA, the army of the East German socialist republic and puppet state of the Soviet Union. So don't count on German officers to be overly ideologically driven is all I am going to say.

With Japan, I am not nearly as educated as with European matters I must admit. @aono certainly has a point focussing Japanese efforts to restructure the state on the emperor. Now, depicting Hirohito as non-controversial is in my honest opinion misguided. Japan's communist party exists since 1922 (even if just as an underground organization up until legalization after the war) and would have been a force to certainly reject the idea of divine monarchy. By the way, the communist party was one of the few if not the only political force to reject the continuous attacks on China up until 1937. Fun fact. However, the modern picture of one of the most successful communist parties in a western-style democracy is not reversibly applicable to World War 2, as the CPJ made its gains in votes in the 1949, when it won 9.8%, up from 3.7% in 1947. It is thus safe to assume that communism should play a subordinate role in any historically-oriented path for Japan. I would support a non-aligned, fascist and democratic path, all of which would end in some form of constitutional, absolute or, in the fascistic case, nominally absolute but factually powerless monarchy.

Just my 2 cents. Interesting thought experiment so far.

 

[aono]

The German public certainly did not support the return of the monarchy and the idea that the military just jerked themselves into sleep every night hoping for the Kaiser to return I would view as historical myth as well.

Actually, in 1936 German public didn't support anything but "hey, I just want to live normally, as we lived before the War, and be respected as German, am I asking so much?". Maybe German public didn't support the return of the monarchy, but they would accept it easily. Also they would accept communist dictatorship or Martial landing on Alexanderplatz.
Same for Russian public in 1936, by the way.

It has to be conceded that the latter group would have probably favored a return to the monarchy on the grounds of "at least it is not the nazis, but still militaristic enough that we can keep our jobs and our fancy uniforms", but like Manstein's involvement in the restructing of the West German Bundeswehr shows, they had absolutely no problem just assimilating into whatever system they wanted.

Well, the very idea of such restoring would be military against Hitler's initial plans to make Europe his playground from the beginning, and in the beginning every sane officer (Guderian included) was completly opposite to idea fighting France or GB (not to mention AND, not to mention USSR AS WELL) before military would be ready. They believed it's suicide. They were right, in the end, but they won't dared to oppose him IRL until late war.
And yeah, that guys could play monarchy card, because their coup would need legitimacy (in their own eyes mostly, and in Western eyes, because they're German military!), and the only legitimacy stays in German would be Wilhelm. He isn't so good for GB or French opinion, but it's better that direct military rule in Prussia.
It's not as they would be ideologically driven, maybe but some old trees. But it's the only sensible way for them not to be hanged in the end.

Japan's communist party exists since 1922 (even if just as an underground organization up until legalization after the war) and would have been a force to certainly reject the idea of divine monarchy.

You see, no political force that rejecting the idea of divine monarchy had any chance of success in Japanese internal politics in Showa period. It's absolutly not possible. Also JCP was, well, not so "Communist party" as in Europe, but more like a club for leftish intellectuals (who actually betrays each other to NKVD for personal clashes).
About their power... well, I studied japanese communists for some earlier period (1923-1925), and you know, Japanese police arrested more activists that JCP had members. I believe it speaks something about their influence.

Now, depicting Hirohito as non-controversial is in my honest opinion misguided.

Oh, Hirohito never was. Actually, Japan would be nice poligon for every alt-history, because it's the land where Emperor could support proletarian revolution, consolidate support and REMAIN Emperor after win, and he haven't anything that would restrain him.
Really, political situation in Japan and popular support was very depended from one man whim. He don't actually use this power lightly, because it had it's costs, but he actually could.

I would support a non-aligned, fascist and democratic path, all of which would end in some form of constitutional, absolute or, in the fascistic case, nominally absolute but factually powerless monarchy.

Well, not powerless. But... let's not bother Divine Emperor with such trivial matters, ok?
In any facist/communist system position of Emperor would be as mediator between factions and the last judge to select one politics in couple presented. It's the position he really had in military Japan IRL. And actually that's why Americans didn't dare to dethrone him after the war and even grant him and his family full immunity after the war - because he was able to suppress any meanful resistance. Without him Japan would fight invaders, and trust me, it would be the bloodiest part of WW2.

 

[Rationalsanity]

The Germany alt paths aren't anymore implausible than the Commonwealth and Central European ones are IMO. Some of those are way more out there in fact.

 

[Gurkhal]

I cannot see how that would lead you to go "oh yeah Italy can go socialist but Germany can't". Germany had a big support base for "leftist" (by which I assume democratic or communist), just like Italy did. Nazism was not something that everyone in the Weimar Republic just accepted. The German public certainly did not support the return of the monarchy and the idea that the military just jerked themselves into sleep every night hoping for the Kaiser to return I would view as historical myth as well.
The German military leadership was certainly anti-communist, but according to Janusz Piekalkiewicz has to be seen divided among the lines of committed nazis like Rommel, Guderian and Hausser and career militarymen like Manstein.
It has to be conceded that the latter group would have probably favored a return to the monarchy on the grounds of "at least it is not the nazis, but still militaristic enough that we can keep our jobs and our fancy uniforms", but like Manstein's involvement in the restructing of the West German Bundeswehr shows, they had absolutely no problem just assimilating into whatever system they wanted. And on that note, Wehrmacht generals like R. Bamler, A. Brandt, W. Freytag, V. Müller, H. v. Weech, H. Wulz and others also joined the NVA, the army of the East German socialist republic and puppet state of the Soviet Union. So don't count on German officers to be overly ideologically driven is all I am going to say.

While I think that you make some very good points in regards to the German public (its pretty rare for a public to actually want to give up democracy, its tends to be forced to tricked into it) and that most German officers were not politically fanatics with their sole existance being the to turn the clock back or always fight to the death, I think that you draw some points to far or get a conclusion which I just don't agree with.

But personally I can totally see that if the military would reject Nazism then they could well go back to monarchy with only the fear of a French intervention as the possible deterent. Its not like the military would take public sentiment into some great consideration.

The reasons I think this is because it seems to me that the main reason as to why the military would support Nazism, and why other elites in Europe threw in their support behind different Fascist groups, was the dread of Communists. In a democracy the communists could well get influence and perhaps even gather enough support for a new attempt at overthrowing the mentioned democracy, provided that they couldn't win the elections outright one day. So that's problem from this conservative perspective that the Communists would be allowed to grow stronger with the permisson of the system.

The solution to this was to let local right-wing extremists in to take the game, gather those who would otherwise be tempted to go Communist to their banners, and oppress said Communists. But in this alternative scenario the military has found out that the Communists seems to grow and thrive in a democratic system and the right-wing extrimist solution has turned out to squash the Communists but consists of nutball asshole scumbags with a significant detachment from reality who base their policies on romantic fairy tales, pseudo-science and base emotions and rejects facts and logic as much as they can to maintain their world view. These Nazis just won't do to lead Germany anywhere except down into the abyss. So how then to stop the Communists if the Nazis are removed? I would say that there are essentially three options left for the military. Either return the monarchy, conduct a military coup to establish a militaty dictatorship over Germany or conduct a coup and create a military camarilla to pull the strings for a civilian goverment, elected or not.

And I from this perspective I don't see why a conserative German officer corps wouldn't pick something they've already tried and known before and which kept the Communists down when the attempts of innovation in the form of democracy and then Nazism didn't give them what they wanted.

 

[CrazyZombie]

Just to define: part of German officer corps were seeing USSR/Russia as their natural ally in struggle with Britain.
Also, even inside NSDAP there were people more socialist than nationalist, so, leaning to alliance with own communists and USSR. Some were killed in events of 1934.

So, I wouldn't have said that communists in Germany had no chances at all. They are underground and oppressed but not completely defeated. And there are forces on which they can rely.

 

[Shinkuro Yukinari]

Maybe allow for Japan and Italy to have Non-Aligned options where their respective Monarchs came to power? Makes sense tbh

 

[aono]

In a democracy the communists could well get influence and perhaps even gather enough support for a new attempt at overthrowing the mentioned democracy, provided that they couldn't win the elections outright one day.

Democracies can ban communitst parties as simple as Nazis could.
That's why soviet propaganda actually use quotes when speaks about western "democracies".

Just to define: part of German officer corps were seeing USSR/Russia as their natural ally in struggle with Britain.

Actually, all of them. It was kinda firm consensus in German military, that you'll never, never should fight GB and Russia at once (and GB definitly would be the first). Also it's worth remembering how German military get weapons and training. But communism? They don't give a damn about communism. They were soldiers who liked their job and were ready to do it with every government which giving orders.

So, I wouldn't have said that communists in Germany had no chances at all. They are underground and oppressed but not completely defeated. And there are forces on which they can rely.

I'd say no. In 1933 - yes. In 1936 - no.
There are two ways underground party could win:
1. Direct outside intervention. That's SED way and shouldn't be in Germany focus tree.
2. Public support in direct confrontation. Well, in 1936 KPD haven't any.

 

[Deinhardt]

I cannot see how that would lead you to go "oh yeah Italy can go socialist but Germany can't". Germany had a big support base for "leftist" (by which I assume democratic or communist), just like Italy did. Nazism was not something that everyone in the Weimar Republic just accepted. The German public certainly did not support the return of the monarchy and the idea that the military just jerked themselves into sleep every night hoping for the Kaiser to return I would view as historical myth as well.
The German military leadership was certainly anti-communist, but according to Janusz Piekalkiewicz has to be seen divided among the lines of committed nazis like Rommel, Guderian and Hausser and career militarymen like Manstein.
It has to be conceded that the latter group would have probably favored a return to the monarchy on the grounds of "at least it is not the nazis, but still militaristic enough that we can keep our jobs and our fancy uniforms", but like Manstein's involvement in the restructing of the West German Bundeswehr shows, they had absolutely no problem just assimilating into whatever system they wanted. And on that note, Wehrmacht generals like R. Bamler, A. Brandt, W. Freytag, V. Müller, H. v. Weech, H. Wulz and others also joined the NVA, the army of the East German socialist republic and puppet state of the Soviet Union. So don't count on German officers to be overly ideologically driven is all I am going to say.

Sorry but no.

First off: At this Point in history any "Leftists", beeing it socialist or communist, movement in Germany lacked a platform to work from. Most of the figure heads are dead at this Point or left for the Soviet Union or other countries to go into Exile. That's how bad the Situation for the left political spectrum in Germany was. IF Germany would to go Left in HoI4 it would be from outside influence and not one of their own decisions.

Second off you completely neglect the circumstances after the war for the examples you bring of German ex Wehrmacht officers "Assimilating" into East and Western german armed Forces. Manstein for example got his sentence cut short for his advisor help and those Generals in the NVA didnt really have a choice, they where needed in Eastern Germany and had the choice between Gulag and NVA Service in most of the cases.

That doesnt speak of "Assimilation" but simply surviving in the afterwar period, leading into the Cold War. These circumstances tell us nothing about the mindset of the german Military in the year 1936.

Third off: The Monarchy Sympathizers are debatable, but a fact is that allot of the Old Prussian army members Held strong Monarchist beliefs. There is a reason Hitler made big public Events out off his appearences with Hindenburg and such to Show his "allignment" with the Old Prussian ways.

These new aHistorical NF for Germany are not so much focused on the public Oppinion, but more to what a Military Revolt against Hitler could lead too. For all we know Wilhelm II is just a public figure head while the old guard prussian Military is running the Show, but with Hindenburg, Ludendorf and soon Mackensen to be dead, there is a lack of representatives and Wilhelm and his son fit the bill.

 

[Sleight of Hand]

ITA and JAP both have very plausible pro-Allied paths, although that doesn't necessitate the logical jump that they must in turn become democratic.

For ITA, once Mussolini is out of the picture (and we know from the new GER tree that he can be assassinated) you are left with his heir-apparent, Italo Balbo, a charismatic Anglophile who loathed the Nazis and knew that Hitler would lead both Germany and Italy to ruin. If you imagine Balbo as Duce rather than Mussolini - and it could easily have happened - then you are firmly into 'what if?' territory and a likely realignment with the Allies, or at the very least detachment from the Axis.

For JAP, it will likely play into the Army vs. Navy debate, and where the focus of the war is determined to be. The British and Japanese had been formal military allies until the 1920s, and communication continued into the 30s. If JAP positions itself as being anti-Soviet rather than attempting to drive into South-East Asia, I don't see why such an alliance wouldn't be possible. JAP wasn't natural enemies with the Allies; they had no real history of fighting one another.

 

[aono]

For JAP, it will likely play into the Army vs. Navy debate, and where the focus of the war is determined to be. The British and Japanese had been formal military allies until the 1920s, and communication continued into the 30s. If JAP positions itself as being anti-Soviet rather than attempting to drive into South-East Asia, I don't see why such an alliance wouldn't be possible. JAP wasn't natural enemies with the Allies; they had no real history of fighting one another.

Actually, they was.
You see, Navy focus would be Indonesia, Philippines and Oceania. Instant no-go with UK and USA.
Army focus would be China; that would be a threat to Singapore, Hong Kong and Burma. Instant no-go with UK.
Both of them would make Japan most powerful country in Pacific. Instant no-go with UK, France and USA.

That's actually why UK turned that alliance off so easily. And that's why USA was so stalwart in their opposition to Army focus of war.

 

[Sleight of Hand]

Actually, they was.
You see, Navy focus would be Indonesia, Philippines and Oceania. Instant no-go with UK and USA.
Army focus would be China; that would be a threat to Singapore, Hong Kong and Burma. Instant no-go with UK.
Both of them would make Japan most powerful country in Pacific. Instant no-go with UK, France and USA.

That's actually why UK turned that alliance off so easily. And that's why USA was so stalwart in their opposition to Army focus of war.

That's a fair point, but within the context of the time you could argue that some kind of anti-Soviet alliance may take precedence -- they were viewed as the major threat, after all.

I agree with you that the Allies wouldn't want any single Asiatic power gaining hegemony, but it could be viewed as a means to an end, and within the broader context of 'the Soviets are going to take over Eurasia' Japanese expansionism could be tolerated so long as it did not directly infringe on Western colonial territories.

 

[aono]

I agree with you that the Allies wouldn't want any single Asiatic power gaining hegemony, but it could be viewed as a means to an end, and within the broader context of 'the Soviets are going to take over Eurasia' Japanese expansionism could be tolerated so long as it did not directly infringe on Western colonial territories.

Yes, Allies would be applaud such a way Japan could take.
No-go with Japan.

 

[Nevrion]

The German public certainly did not support the return of the monarchy and the idea that the military just jerked themselves into sleep every night hoping for the Kaiser to return I would view as historical myth as well.

Well, Hindenburg and some others could be described as monarchists. Of course, they didn't support the re-establishment of Wilhelm II in this period, because it was unpopular to return to this kind of state. (A little ironic, when we see that Hitler did much worse crimes than Wilhelm II) I will not say there was a possibility for a majority to bring back Wilhelm II to the throne, but even after the end of world war one there were people (minority) who supported the monarchy. If Hitler weren't so successful and convincing in the 1930s, there could be more room for the return of the monarchy.

 

[General_ Alcazar]

What about the 26-2 Incident in Japan?
I'm not an expert but for what I know the military was also divided into two factions. The Kodo-ha, which was a big fan of traditional culture, direct rule of the emperor and Northern expansion into the soviet-union. And Tosei-ha who were more influenced by the West, preferring industrialization, modernization and a more cautious expansion into China.

Maybe this can be a background for another path for Japan which changes the country in 100% facist to non-aligned with foci more oriented towards the North.

 

[Deinhardt]

Well, Hindenburg and some others could be described as monarchists. Of course, they didn't support the re-establishment of Wilhelm II in this period, because it was unpopular to return to this kind of state. (A little ironic, when we see that Hitler did much worse crimes than Wilhelm II) I will not say there was a possibility for a majority to bring back Wilhelm II to the throne, but even after the end of world war one there were people (minority) who supported the monarchy. If Hitler weren't so successful and convincing in the 1930s, there could be more room for the return of the monarchy.

Not Aware that Wilhelm is responsible for any crimes, aside from the usual cruelty that was WW1. To my Knowledge Wilhelm left on the urges of Hindenburg to safe his hide from the Far left wing revolutionaries. Also the Treaty of Versailles inclued to Hand over Wilhelm II so he could be sent bevor a court on the charges of various warcrimes. Basicly to put the whole blame of WW1 onto him. Exile saved him that disgrace and humility and is probably one of the reasons he stayed there.

If that part of the Versailles Treaty is justified is another matter that doesnt really Need to be debated here, but infact is important for the cause of reinstating Wilhelm to the Throne. It's as much as a Revision of the Treaty of Versaile for Germany as the remilitarization of the Rhineland.

So in Light of that, with Germany already on the path to revise the Treaty and the Far left parties beeing dealt with in Germany itself at this point, there is infact enough Basis and reason to bring Wilhelm back. Not only for the Monarchist supporters but also to spit on the Treaty of Verasiles.

 

[aono]

I'm not an expert but for what I know the military was also divided into two factions. The Kodo-ha, which was a big fan of traditional culture, direct rule of the emperor and Northern expansion into the soviet-union. And Tosei-ha who were more influenced by the West, preferring industrialization, modernization and a more cautious expansion into China.

Not... so easy.
Kodoha - radicals, who actually tried to undermine Emperor influence, was something early Hitler-like. They actually believed that every point of civil society is parazited by horrific reds, so military should take direct control. They believed in Hokushin-ron strategy, closest to "Japan as barrier to Soviets" @Sleight of Hand discussed up here. Actually they planned blitz where Soviets would give up and go out. State in Kodoha thought should be ruled by the Emperor without all that Diets or capitalisis, with a modest help of the military leaders. Long story short such kind of political system called Shogunate in Japan (that's why Hirohito wasn't fond of Kodoha officers and condemned 2-26).
Toseiha - moderates, who actually believed in total war; so, they said, state should be mobilized as far as possible as soon as possible, so we need capitalists, national unity and all that things. And we, they said, shouldn't try to overstrench ourselves, so no deep soviet raids yet. Manchuria and China - of cource, but let's not be too reckless.
Actually IRL Toseiha won.

 

[Gurkhal]

Democracies can ban communitst parties as simple as Nazis could.
That's why soviet propaganda actually use quotes when speaks about western "democracies".

I'm sure that democracies can but for one reason or another the Weimar Republic didn't ban the Communists. Having the possibility of doing something is pointless if you're not ready to do it.

 

[aono]

I'm sure that democracies can but for one reason or another the Weimar Republic didn't ban the Communists. Having the possibility of doing something is pointless if you're not ready to do it.

Sure. I just meant that democracy as an political system isn't defenceless before communism, if rulers had a will to use it. Not more defenceless that dictatorship or absolute monarchy. Actually even less.
So Weimar Republic history showed, by the way.