Avoiding Arbitrary Penalties and Euro-Centrism

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Captain Gars

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I simply questioned his main arguments as I've understood them. I'm sure he mentions a little bit of everything in his book. Though as history has clearly shown there is nothing more important than institutions, the real question is how Europe came about to develop the best ones. Having guns, germs and steel is not the answer to that question. Having a protective geography promoting competition helps, but is no recipe for success. As I see it, his argument is that it was due to the land, the actual continent of Europe that made the Europeans dominate. I honestly think that that's deterministic hocus pocus. This is however, as I stated before as well, my interpretation of summaries of the book and arguments put forth by people having read it. I'm sure it's an interesting read in any case. If you disagree then please defend his argument or correct my interpretations of them.

Here's my take on any historical subject. There are no simple answers, there is no one book or one expert that will give you the complete answer. And you realize that the more you read on a subject the less you know. By reading an article on Wikipedia it's easy to make the mistake and think that you understand the subject. By reading thirty books about it you realize you have only scratched the surface and don't really know anything. So I try to keep an open mind to what I read, pick up details from everyone but never buy one point-of-view. The conclusion I draw myself. I don't think Diamond has the complete answer, but if you're interested in the subject I think he's written a way too interesting book to be thrown in the bin.

And what StephenT said above is a really important point about the book.
 
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Blaaat

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One thing that a lot of people miss when they haven't actually read Diamond's book - only skimmed reviews of it - is that he's not trying to prove why Europe did better in the last 500 years. He's talking about why Eurasia did better in the last 8000 years. Totally different scale. He does discuss briefly the contrast between Europe and East Asia, and offer a few suggestions on how geographical factors might have affected their different development: but it's certainly not the main focus of his work.
This. The difference between Europe and China is only handled in a single paragraph of the entire book.
 

Sleepyhead

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One thing that a lot of people miss when they haven't actually read Diamond's book - only skimmed reviews of it - is that he's not trying to prove why Europe did better in the last 500 years. He's talking about why Eurasia did better in the last 8000 years. Totally different scale. He does discuss briefly the contrast between Europe and East Asia, and offer a few suggestions on how geographical factors might have affected their different development: but it's certainly not the main focus of his work.
Fair enough, but I did not bring up the book as an argument myself.
Here's my take on any historical subject. There are no simple answers, there is no one book or one expert that will give you the complete answer. And you realize that the more you read on a subject the less you know. By reading an article on Wikipedia it's easy to make the mistake and think that you understand the subject. By reading thirty books about it you realize you have only scratched the surface and don't really know anything. So I try to keep an open mind to what I read, pick up details from everyone but never by one point-of-view. The conclusion I draw myself. I don't think Diamond has the complete answer, but if you're interested in the subject I think he's written a way too interesting book to be thrown in the bin.
You obviously haven't read Why Nations Fail by Acemoglu & Robinson then. ;) Even Mr Diamond gave it a favourable review a couple of days ago, stating that institutions stand for 50 % of differences in prosperity between countries. Even though Acemoglu & Robinson spend a great deal of time trying to refute much of his work in their book. Here's their reply and Mr. Diamond's counter-reply. Interesting read.
Of course in regards to the development of good institutions Diamond still thinks it is a product of geographical determinism, whilst Acemoglu & Robinson see it as a result of a historical process and sort of random events or even accidents. Personally I argue it's based on ideas. :)
 

Closet Skeleton

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Likewise the new world will eternally be technologically retarded through the current system, regardless of the fact that the smallpox genocide accounts for most of their lost capacity. What if Europe was in disarray, and no country was in a position to go off exploring or colonizing? What if the new world had another 200 years to realise the threat and prepare for it?

Then they'd all die of smallpox later rather than earlier.

The colonisation of America is the one area where Diamond is obviously correct in the broad sense (though he unnecessarily elaborates a simple problem when he examines other factors). The domesticated animals that foster a disease and immunity arms race in one continent but not on the other just dooms the Americans. Give them laser guns and giant robots and it won't solve anything. Have them find us first and the same result will happen.

Because some people enjoy playing non-European nations with their historical constraints.

I enjoy playing non-European nations with massively exaggerated constraints but I'd probably enjoy them more with historical constraints more. If I want an arbitrary challenge I'd turn on hard mode or the like.

If you want to play a game where every nation has equal technology and power, just a different location and new graphics, I recommend the Civilisation or Total War series.

That's not true at all. Civilisation allows for tech differences between nations but gives them all pretty much the same graphics.

And the attribution of the industrial revolution to colonialism. Really? One point of Niall Ferguson's talk that I did like was that everyone has tried empire. It didn't made Mongolia or the Aztecs rich and industrialised.

Temporarily and compared to the local competition it did. Europe just upped the scale.

One thing that a lot of people miss when they haven't actually read Diamond's book - only skimmed reviews of it - is that he's not trying to prove why Europe did better in the last 500 years. He's talking about why Eurasia did better in the last 8000 years. Totally different scale. He does discuss briefly the contrast between Europe and East Asia, and offer a few suggestions on how geographical factors might have affected their different development: but it's certainly not the main focus of his work.

On that scale, a difference of 400 years between the rise of Europe and the rise of post-Mao China isn't really visible at all, so by its own nature that kind of theory can't explain a difference limited to a few centuries.
 
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Peter Ebbesen

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Not if it concerns a chaotic system rather than a deterministic.

Or the lack of information is remedied by looking at the random number generator used by the game and then examining the memory stacks it looks at in order to generate a random number and cross-checking that with event files and decision trees.

You get the "information," but it might as well be random. :D
 

Don_Quigleone

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If you read Guns, Germs and Steel he's not really talking about the EU period directly. Mostly he's talking about why Europeans came along with guns and steel, while Aboriginals in Australia were still just using Stone tools. In terms of Europe beating India, or China, he doesn't really devote much time to it, I'd say he would agree that it's somewhat a random fluke, though Europe did benefit from being politically divided (compared to China) and with relatively easy access to the Americas (which allowed great leaps in European Agriculture due to access to new crops like Potatoes, with which they could improve their productivity.)

In terms of why Europe ultimately pulled ahead of Asia, you have to look at a deeper level then what Diamond did, but you could say that Europe had slightly better conditions in place to leap ahead, largely due to geography.

If you read his book, it's very well thought out, but there were points I disagree with (for instance, I don't buy the whole lack of natural barriers argument leading to China being more unified, though that was really just one paragraph, he didn't go into it further).
 

KonradRichtmark

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...and Africa (which, if Diamond's arguments are accurate, should now be producing completely disease-immune superhumans);

Well, honestly, how do you know that it isn't? Or, rather, won't have done a few hundred years from now? Even microevolution takes many, many generations.

Imagine that, in 2100, the world is hit by a serious, catastrophic pandemic. Not the bird/swine flu or other such nonsense, but the real thing, a modern-day Black Plague. The population of every civilization elsewhere than subsaharan Africa is almost wiped out as if hit by a neutron bomb, and the tiny fraction that survives is too small to put up any resistance when the Somali warlords roll in with their technicals :D
 

Colombo

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Not if it concerns a chaotic system rather than a deterministic.
Even in a chaotic system it's a question of probabilities rather than pure randomness.
Or the lack of information is remedied by looking at the random number generator used by the game and then examining the memory stacks it looks at in order to generate a random number and cross-checking that with event files and decision trees.

You get the "information," but it might as well be random. :D
Chaotic system is just that, lack of information. In system, where small change of parameter can mean big change in outcome, lack of information about parameters or just their approximation (that mean lack of information, but we know "something") does mean realy big changes in outcomes. Even when approximation of parameters are same in many runs.
Altrough in past years some (again SOME, not all) interpretations of quantum theory brought the pure natural randomnes in play, causality that plays role in macroworld means determinism.
 

StephenT

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Africa (which, if Diamond's arguments are accurate, should now be producing completely disease-immune superhumans)
Funnily enough, tropical Africa resisted conquest and occupation by Europeans with superior technology for 400 years, because the Africans had developed resistance to diseases which slaughtered any Europeans who tried to settle there. In other words, although I realise you were trying to discredit Diamond's work by mocking him, you've actually proved him right.

It was only the invention of modern medicine, vaccines, and anti-malaria prophylaxis by the Victorians after 1850 or so that allowed Europeans to colonise tropical Africa.
 

Colombo

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Well, honestly, how do you know that it isn't? Or, rather, won't have done a few hundred years from now? Even microevolution takes many, many generations.
This only shows that you realy don't understand term microevolution. Btw. evolution can be pretty fast.

With diseases, this is problem of population dynamics or population genetics than evolution.
 

ANO1453

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Funnily enough, tropical Africa resisted conquest and occupation by Europeans with superior technology for 400 years, because the Africans had developed resistance to diseases which slaughtered any Europeans who tried to settle there. In other words, although I realise you were trying to discredit Diamond's work by mocking him, you've actually proved him right.
I'm not sure how much of it was resistance, and how much of it was knowledge. After all, the African medicine men knew how to treat malaria with local herbs (like the European did with their own illnesses).
 

Closet Skeleton

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Funnily enough, tropical Africa resisted conquest and occupation by Europeans with superior technology for 400 years, because the Africans had developed resistance to diseases which slaughtered any Europeans who tried to settle there. In other words, although I realise you were trying to discredit Diamond's work by mocking him, you've actually proved him right.

It was only the invention of modern medicine, vaccines, and anti-malaria prophylaxis by the Victorians after 1850 or so that allowed Europeans to colonise tropical Africa.

That was as much to do with climate and the axis of the earth than on hills, rivers and mountains.


Complete nonsense pretty much.

The other major civilizations in the world, such as the Ottoman Turks, Mughal India, Tokugawa Japan, Muscovite Russia, and the Incan and Aztec Empires in the Western Hemisphere, told a similar story of being populous, wealthy (except for Russia), and highly centralized under strong autocratic rulers.

Tokugawa Japan and the Aztec were centralised under autocratic rulers? The writer clearly had no idea what he was talking about. The Tokugawa were centralised only that they had a capital and weren't in a civil war anymore, the Aztec were city states with a web of alliances and vassalage, not centralised at all. The Mughals relied heavily on vassal princes too.

Those civilisations are also all incredibly short lived and rose to power in this period. England and France were much more established and developed states, excepting China and Persia they may actually have had the most time to develop. The Empires the Aztec, Inca, Ottomans and Mughals established had an arguably much greater rate of expansion in this period and started out with even less.

In fact, it was Western Europe's lack of autocratic rulers, such as these other cultures had, which would be the key to its leaping ahead of the pack.

France and Spain cover a lot of western Europe and were more autocratic than most of the cultures the writer mentions.

For, while the absolute rulers outside of Europe tended to exploit and suppress their middle class and, in the process, stifle inventiveness and initiative, the spirit of free enterprise and inventiveness had much more free rein in Western Europe. That freedom created a powerful dynamic that allowed Europeans to forge ahead with new ideas, business techniques, and technologies that would shape the modern world. And if freedom was the key to Europe's success, geography was much of its underlying basis.

This is basically 'the myth of western freedom vs eastern tyranny' inspired by Herodotus. Its not historic or scientific in any way what so ever.

Poland-Lithuania had more freedom than any country in Western Europe and it just stagnated.

Free enterprise requires property laws, eg centralisation and strong authority. 'Freedom' is too vague a word to explain anything. Libertarian Capitalists believe that freedom comes from not being interfered with by government, Communists believe freedom comes from having equally distributed wealth, the Greek and Italian city states believed freedom was the ability of the state to govern itself. Freedom means whatever you want it to. Its not word you can just throw about in this kind of discourse because at its heart, it doesn't have any meaning without context.

There were two main geographic factors that would help lead to Western Europe's later dominance. First of all, Western Europe was broken up by mountains, forests, and bodies of water: the Alps and Pyrenees cutting Italy, Spain, and Portugal off from northern Europe; the English Channel cutting England off from the continent; and the Baltic Sea separating Scandinavia from the rest of Europe in the south.

This is nonsense. Bodies of water are not barriers. They are means of transport. England was not cut off from the continent. Hence the Vikings, the Normans, the House of Anjou, many of the Gallic tribes mention by Julius Caesar, all had land in both Britain and the mainland.

The Pyrenees could be a barrier, but they were never really a barrier to states. The basques/gascognes and the occitans/catalans had cultural and often political influence at the edges of the mountains. The Pyrenees were a barrier to states not on the edges, but these never had dominance anyway and were usually subsumed into those that did control the edges.

The Alps were also easy for conquerors to simply go round.

This broke Western Europe into a large number of independent states that no one ruler had the power and resources to conquer and hold.

India had tons of independent states too. Western Europe didn't start to gain prominence until Spain and Britain were united, France became centralised and the disunited Germany and Italy never really did anything colonial.


Second, Western Europe had a wide diversity of climates, resources, and waterways which promoted a large number of separate economies, but which were linked together for trade by the extensive coastlines and river systems covering the region.

So now he notices that waterways and coastlines are links not barriers.

Western Europe does not had a wide diversity of climates. It has the Mediterranean and the colder north. Compared to the Andes that's a pitiable amount of climatic diversity. If Europe's resources were that awesome they wouldn't have been so driven to trade with China and India in the first place, therefore no global Empires.

Therefore, just as no one power could control all of Europe politically, no one power could monopolize one vital aspect of its economy. Thus Europe was characterized by what we call political and economic pluralism, which also reinforced each other.

This argument requires him to completely ignore and generalise the west of the world while explaining Europe and then claim that he's shown how unique Europe was when actually he's done no actual comparative work. Europe was no more politically diverse than the rest of the world except within the HRE, which was more a case of the central authority being so weak that any petty land owner could be mistaken for an independent state.

The only area on the entire planet where a single regime dominated a large area was China, a nation that Europe could defeat in naval trade wars but never managed to conquer. China also frequently suffered from break away regions, revolts and civil war so wasn't actually all that united anyway. In Indonesia, India, the Americas, the central asian and Siberian steppes, the areas Europe actually made their global Empires, there were tons of political divisions, tribalism and small states to which the five colonial powers of Britain, Spain, France, Portugal and the Netherlands made a relatively united front.

Political and economic pluralism also combined to promote the rise of a prosperous and innovative middle class that could create and spread new ideas, business techniques, and technology if the local rulers would allow it. If they did not allow it, there was always the option of moving to another state that did give them the freedom to pursue their interests. The results of such moves, such as when the French Protestant Huguenots left France en masse to avoid Louis XIV's religious persecution in 1685, were to deprive the economies of the persecuting nations of some of their wealthiest and most innovative people while boosting the economies of the countries that took these immigrants in. As a result, the balance of power would constantly shift away from powerful and repressive states and in favor of the more progressive and free thinking ones, thus reinforcing political pluralism in Western Europe.

Oh, so France became weak because of its oppressive regime while Prussia conquered a global Empire with the help of all those Protestant French refugees it let in. Oh wait.

These three factors converged to help Western Europe establish large overseas colonial empires which were conquered by Europe's small but well armed and disciplined armies and navies and held under control by powerful European fortresses. As time and Western Europe's technology progressed, European armies would show an amazing ability to defeat non-European armies many times their size with astounding regularity, each time increasing and strengthening their hold on their overseas colonies.

I'm not an expert on Spanish America but how many fortresses did they have there? Europe's over seas Empires weren't conquered by small disciplined armies defeating larger native ones, they were created by Europeans taking advantage of the political divisions outside of Europe to ally with the natives, divide and conquer. This is obvious from any actual reading of the narratives of the European conquests. The idea that European armies were invincible is a myth created by those who can't be bothered to actually look at facts.

Europe's large colonial empires brought an influx of money and resources into Europe. This fed back into Europe's economic and political pluralism, especially after 1600 when smaller states such as England and the Dutch Republic were taking their share of overseas trade and colonies, thus starting the cycle all over again. These colonial empires also made Western Europe the center of a world economy, providing it with the money and resources needed for the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700's. It is no accident that the Industrial Revolution started in Great Britain, which also happened to be the foremost colonial power of its day.

Thanks to this cycle, Europe and European derived cultures (e.g., the United States, Canada, and Australia) were able to control 85% of the globe by 1900. Since then, Europe has lost its colonial empire, thanks primarily to two highly destructive world wars, but not before it could spread its ideas and technology across the globe where they have taken firm root.

This is partially correct, but now he's talking about the result of an already established colonial Empire, he's still failed to talk about the causes that stimulated the beginnings of those Empires, which was largely a desire to trade with China.

'smaller states such as England'? Great Britain and Ireland isn't exactly small. Not compared to the Indian states they were conquering and making alliances with.

Second link from that same site:

Kings also opposed the nobles and the Church, so the middle class townsmen provided them with valuable allies and money. With this money, kings could buy two things. First of all, they could raise mercenary armies armed with guns to limit the power of the nobles. Secondly, they could form professional bureaucracies staffed largely by their middle class allies who were both more efficient since they were literate and more loyal since they were the king's natural allies and dependant on him for their positions. As a result, kings in Western Europe were able to build strong centralized nation-states by the 1600's.

Is the writer for this one different? He's completely changed his tune, now he's admitting that Western Europe contained strong centralised nation states. But not he's not talking about those terrible Aztec and Tokugawa autocrats so he doesn't need to reinforce that ridiculous comparison.

However, the critical difference between Eastern and Western Europe has to do with waterways. Western Europe has an abundance of navigable rivers, coastlines, and harbors along the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Seas. In the High Middle Ages, these fostered the revival of trade and the rise of towns, a money economy, and a middle class opposed to the feudal structure dominated by the nobles and Church.

The Balkans lack water ways except for the Danube which is on the periphery of the Balkans anyway. Saying the Ukraine and Russia do is nonsense and putting the Baltic in Western Europe is just cherry picking.

Factors limiting trade also limited the growth of a strong middle class in Eastern Europe. This meant that kings had little in the way of money or allies to help them against the nobles. That in turn meant that peasants had few towns where they could escape the oppression of the nobles. Therefore, strong nobilities plus weak, and oftentimes elective, monarchies were the rule in Eastern Europe before 1600. At the same time, the nobles ruled over peasants whose status actually was sliding deeper into serfdom rather than emerging from it.

This is partially True, but Poland-Lithuania got around this by encouraging German and Jewish immigrants that gave a strong middle class.

However, there was one geographic factor that favored Eastern Europe's rulers after 1600. That was the fact that Eastern Europe is next to Western Europe. As a result, some influence from the West was able to filter in to the East. In particular, Eastern European rulers would emulate their Western counterparts by adopting firearms, mercenary armies, and professional bureaucracies. As a result, they were able to build strongly centralized states in the 1600's and 1700's. This was especially true in three states: Austria-Hungary (the Hapsburg Empire), Brandenburg-Prussia in Germany, and Russia.

There are elements of truth sure, but is funny how he claims that the east had to steal firearms from the west when the Czech Hussites were way ahead of France in adopting such things. Mercenaries were going out of fashion when the Prussians built their professional army.

Eastern Europe, in stark contrast to Western Europe, provided practically a mirror image of its historical development before 1600. Being further inland compared to Western Europe hurt Eastern Europe's trade, since the sea and river waterways vital to trade did not exist there in such abundance as they did in Western Europe.

Western Europe's trade superiority had nothing to do with the geography within western Europe, it was entirely to do with its ability to exploit the Atlantic Ocean. Eastern Europe actually had the trade advantage with Asia. It was only the political divisions that cut off Egypt and the Silk road that led to the decline of eastern trade, which had always been superior in the middle ages.

However, the lower incidence of towns and a strong middle class has continued to hamper the development of Eastern European states in the modern era, since rulers there have had to build their states with less of the strong foundation of a money based economy, basing their states on less developed agricultural economies. While the strong middle class in Western Europe would provide the impetus for further developments in the West, notably the emergence of democracy and the Industrial Revolution, these two things have had a harder time taking root in Eastern Europe, making its overall political and economic development more difficult.

Once again, his conclusion is more or less based on fact but doesn't flow that well from his earlier article. In general this one wasn't so bad.
 

Tiresais

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Just to weigh in with the anti-Diamond fervour - it is well regarded in Economic History. As someone who's read it cover-to-cover for a Masters course in Economic History - it's well written, accessible, and has some great points. Not all points are nailed on, but there isn't a single book out there that covers the topics and time-span he does so well. Criticisms tend to come from those who just choose not to accept geographic determinism and shift the balance towards cultural institutions (which if you read Diamond's book and compare to Acemoglu, Robinson and Johnson's book, you might find the statement a bit contradictory). Simply, Geography (through issues such as ease of sustaining population, climate, accessibility, and local predators) determines institutions and it's hard to argue against that fact - it's a question of whether you consider geography critically important, very important, or partially important.

(and no one likes Niall Ferguson, except his book about the history of money, which was apparently well received).

If you're looking for a easy to read history of economics over 4000 years, check out David Landes "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations", which is both cheap and good (it's one of the books I used to teach my course). Another potential good read is Eric Jones' "The European Miracle". History is contentious, especially in the rise of the West, so every author has their own spin on things. It's a opinion you form after having read about 20 books about where the balance lies (and then you have to change it when you read another!)
 

Colombo

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It all depends on the chaos theory. If we took history, or human developement, as chaotic system, as system, where small change of variable will get completly different result, or if we took human developement as stable system, where all those variables are just noise, not realy doing anything.

Since we can't easilly test it... only with simulations and smale scale experiments.
 

Don_Quigleone

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Diamond's argument, at it's core, was that geographical factors enabled the rise of advanced societies, and given a large enough area, and a long enough period of time, such a society was almost guaranteed to arise and dominate all the other less advanced societies surrounding it. A bit like Rome dominating the tribes of Gaul. The society of greece/rome could have arisen anywhere in he Mediterranean, but they happened to pop up there. If things had gone a bit differently, we could all be talking about the legacy of the "Carthaginian Empire" or "Massilian Empire" or whatever.

Whereas, you'd never get such a society pop in the middle of the Sahara, for obvious reasons.

If you look at all the locations that did not see the rise of advanced civilizations, or saw them rise particularly late compared to others, they all tended to be hampered by their geography and climate in some way. Africa and the Americas lacked a variety of domestic animals, Australia had no native fertile grains etc. etc.

The reasons why Europe, the Middle East, China and India, held the most advanced civilizations in the world, and not Central Asia, Sub-equatorial africa or Australia was because those areas were fertile enough to support them, not because the peoples living there were intrinsically "smarter" or "stronger".

Now why it was Europe and not China or India that dominated the world is more down to complex social factors, and not really just geography.
 

1alexey

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Funnily enough, tropical Africa resisted conquest and occupation by Europeans with superior technology for 400 years, because the Africans had developed resistance to diseases which slaughtered any Europeans who tried to settle there. In other words, although I realise you were trying to discredit Diamond's work by mocking him, you've actually proved him right.

It was only the invention of modern medicine, vaccines, and anti-malaria prophylaxis by the Victorians after 1850 or so that allowed Europeans to colonise tropical Africa.
Not really. It is more an issue of lifestyle, than immunity. Africans in tropics generally live on heights(that means wind will blow the moscitoes out of the village), and in rather small communities, far awy from water.

Europeans tried to settle down same way as in Europe, near water, and got hit by moskitoes and low quality of water rather hard.

It is not really about natural immunity, rather than the enviromental gearing, similar to the way how Africans will not know how to settle down in Siberia, due to it`s strong frosts, and lack of knowlege of agriculture in steppes.
 

StephenT

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Not really. It is more an issue of lifestyle, than immunity. Africans in tropics generally live on heights(that means wind will blow the moscitoes out of the village), and in rather small communities, far awy from water.
I'm sorry but this is simply untrue. Africans in places like the Congo basin built their homes along rivers for the same reasons Europeans did: access to fresh water and convenient transportation. There were comparatively large cities in tropical Africa -Abomey, capital of Dahomey, had a population of 24,000 before the French conquest. The king of Ashanti could summon an army of 200,000 warriors.

Nobody's saying Africans were completely immune to disease; they weren't. Europeans weren't immune to smallpox either - it killed thousands of people in Europe every year. But it didn't kill 95% of the population.