Austria refuses Anschluss

[golruul]

In 2/3 games I played as Germany so far Austria refuses Anschluss. All 3 campaigns had historical focus enabled, playing as Veteran difficulty, and in my last game I had 70+ divisions on the field.

According to event file, in spoiler, Austria should have a 100% chance of accepting it if historical mode is enabled or if Germany has >39 divisions. This is not happening.

Spoiler: Anschluss event

# Austria asked about Anschluss
country_event = {
id = germany.28
title = germany.28.t
desc = germany.28.d
picture = GFX_report_event_hitler_parade

is_triggered_only = yes

option = { # Accept
name = germany.28.a
ai_chance = {
base = 30
modifier = {
add = -25
GER = { has_army_size = { size < 40 } }
}
modifier = {
add = 100
GER = { has_army_size = { size > 39 } }
}
}
GER = {
country_event = { hours = 2 id = germany.4 }
}
custom_effect_tooltip = GAME_OVER_TT
}
option = { # Refuse
name = germany.28.b
ai_chance = {
base = 10

modifier = {
factor = 0
GER = { has_army_size = { size > 39 } }
is_historical_focus_on = yes
}
modifier = {
add = 20
GER = { has_army_size = { size < 30 } }
}
}
GER = {
add_opinion_modifier = { target = ROOT modifier = GER_anschluss_rejected }
country_event = { hours = 2 id = germany.29 }
if = { limit = { is_in_faction_with = AUS }
remove_from_faction = AUS
}
}
}
}

Attached save game in zip file when they refused.