Well they still don't add up, but I see a little better what's happening. With the example above
+24 Unit Size
-15 Province
-16 Leader
+5 Due to Technology
+10 Winter
+2 Marsh
Attrition = 2 (that's with the conquistador, without him, attrition = 14)
the lower 3 factors don't affect your actual attrition, they set what the max attrition can be; so you cannot get more than 17% attrition in this example. The top section is what you actually experience; in this case +24-15-16=+3. You got +2 but that is pretty close, if that's all it was I wouldn't bother logging a bug.
But the examples in the save game you sent are not that close. Obdorsk is
+21 Unit Size
-15 Province
-6 Leader
+1 Due to Technology
+10 Winter
+2 Marsh
Attrition=9, but the sums =0
and Nagorje is
+21 Unit Size
-20 Province
-4 Leader
+1 Due to Technology
+10 Winter
+5 Mountain
Attrition = 6, but the sums =-3. In both cases the difference is 9; it is as if the tech level # is being added to the attrition number as well as removed from the maximum total. Let me send this game in to Paradox for comment.