A Throne of Bayonets: German WWI victory
“One often regrets the choices one has made, yet we now find ourselves regretting the choices we haven’t made”
-Lord Grey, 12th of August 1917, after the terms of the Treaty of Potsdam were announced in Britain
“Germany surprised the world over and over again during this Great European War. The thing that surprised me is that people didn’t start expecting the unexpected from Germany in this war.”
-Lord Kitchener, 14th of February 1917, after the beginning of German winter offensive against Belgium and France.
The unexpected defined the German actions of the Great European War that began in August of 1914. Everybody expected that Germany would strike west in case of war with the Franco-Russian Entente. And that would provide a ticket to British entry into that conflict. It was an open secret that the Germans would to this. Maybe they wanted it this way, or maybe they were actually planning such a strike and later changed their minds, there is evidence to be found for both theories, but this attack in the west did not come in August 1914.
There was one man for whom this was very inconvenient, Lord Grey. He had been working with the Entente, and had promised to join the war. Yet, with no proper casus belli for him to justify his war, parliament did not issue a declaration of war. Instead of heading west, Germany headed east.
The German attack in Poland was devastating, and the first in a series of disasters that would eventually cause the downfall of the Tsarist regime. The German armies struck south from Prussia, linked up with the Austrians, saved their failing lines and encircled multiple armies in the process. Central Poland would be conquered following that, ending in the Siege of Warsaw where the last 2 Russian armies would be defeated. The operation was done by late October. It was expected, with just an offensive having been finished, that the east would be quiet for the winter, this would prove to be another surprise.
The German winter offensive began in February, and was somewhat limited in scope, it was a push through Eastern Lithuania, which swung northwest to the city of Riga. Yet again this operation would prove a disaster for the Russian. Once again, multiple armies would be encircled in the Courland pocket. But this would prove only a stepping stone to the general offensive of that year. From eastern Lithuania the German armies would advance across Byelorussia and the Pripyat. The armies would, from there, turn south, rushing along the Dnieper until they reached the black sea. This would see another massive encirclement, far beyond the scale of the last two, once and for all, destroy Tsarist forces. For the rest of the year, the front would seem quiet. Once again, this was a wrong assumption.
In late 1915, Nicholas II abdicated, and a provisional republican government was established. The Germans, looking to destabilize the Russian state further, sent Lenin back to Russia, and in March he took control. What was to be a quiet winter turned into a German offensive towards Petrograd. The only real resistance was given at this city, which would fall after a 3 week siege. Following the fall of the city, Lenin sought peace at any cost, and it was a heavy one. Ukraine, Byelorussia, the Baltic states and Poland would gain independence under German supervision. Finland would become independent with a German King, and the Caucasus would gain independence under German influence.
The redeployment of German forces to the west would take until December of that year. And once again, whilst everybody knew the strike was coming, Germany surprised everybody. The offensive came in February. This gave Germany one major advantage, developing a trench system was way harder for the French. This had existed since 1914 on the Franco-German border and had made for an incredibly harsh environment for war, with an incredible advantage for the defender. Making sure the French could not use this was the one goal the Germans wished. Thus, they moved through the lowlands. They demanded these countries join them in their war, and that Luxembourg would ascent to the German Empire. Luxembourg ascended, the Netherlands, because of her dependence on German trade, joined the war. It was only Belgium who resisted. Belgium threw up a valuable defence on the Meuse, but they were outflanked from the north. French forges moved in, but they were soundly defeated in the Battle of Mons. From there, the line collapsed all the way until Britany was occupied. The lines in Lothringia held, until they were outflanked by units moving from Paris towards Lyon. The French, seeing the writing on the wall, capitulated together with the Italians who had fought a failing defensive war after the end of the Eastern Front.
The Treaty of Potsdam saw France give up most of her colonial empire except for her possessions in northern and western Africa. Along with that, she was forced to secede a border strip to Germany and hand control of French Flanders over to the Netherlands. Belgium was dismantled. The Congo and Belgian Luxembourg were ceded to Germany, Flanders was annexed by the Netherlands and the remaining part of Wallonia joined France, and for the foreseeable future, North France would remain under occupation. This was not the harshest treaty however. The Treaty of Klosterneuburg saw the dismantlement of the Kingdom of Italy and her replacement by the Italian Confederation, headed by the King of Lombardo-Veneto, a kingdom ruled in personal union with the Austro-Hungarian Dual Monarchy.
In Britain, the new order was received with horror. Germany ruled the continent and had colonies all over the world from where she could project power. Whilst the Liberal Party was crushed in the 1915 election over the government wanting to bring the country into a war it didn’t wish to join, one of her most prominent members now stands in the spotlight again. Austen Chamberlain once again champions the idea of Imperial Federation as a way to wield the power of the Empire against the German threat, and the elections of this year will see whether the public is still as enthusiastic for this idea. But resistance is already coming from overseas. The Afrikaners of South Africa fear that in a federalized empire they will find their way of life slowly dying out, and German South-West Africa nearby, it isn’t a far fetch that the Germans could sponsor a revolt.
At the same time, the new order in Europe is unstable. The French military government is facing ever increasing pressure from socialist and revitalized far right groups. The Ottoman Empire, whilst they didn’t join the war, have bound themselves to Germany. The Baghdad Railway is close to completion allowing Germany access to Iraqi oil. Arab leaders have been in contact with the British to start a revolt. And then there is Austria. Whilst victorious, the bad performance against Russia and Serbia has shown that her military leaves much to be desired for. Ethnic tension has been on the rise, and the inclusion of Montenegro and Serbia into the Empire could provide a hotbed for agitation. And the new situation in Italy just seems to explode into revolt if Austria was ever distracted by issues somewhere else.
Yes, Germany did surprise the world over and over again during the war. But maybe she will surprise herself that the unstable new order will provide weaknesses to be exploited.