Arrange Marriage screen should show if alliance will be honored

[Riekopo]

I usually arrange marriages for the military alliances they bring. However, it's kind of a guessing game and not reliable because I never know if my potential new relative will honor that alliance. I think on the Arrange Marriage screen it should say if the alliance is likely to be honored or not and what the reasons are.

http://i.imgur.com/80WGLJK.jpg

 

[Slayen]

I usually arrange marriages for the military alliances they bring. However, it's kind of a guessing game and not reliable because I never know if my potential new relative will honor that alliance. I think on the Arrange Marriage screen it should say if the alliance is likely to be honored or not and what the reasons are.

http://i.imgur.com/80WGLJK.jpg

Given the number of variables involved, I'm not so sure they could display such information there.

I mean, I've had allies that have been willing to join me in some wars, but not others, all depending on distance, opinion, what sort of cb, had I called them recently, are they in a war already, etc.

 

[Rags17]

More importantly, i would like to see who stands to gain titles at some future date. There has been more than one occasion when I married a sister or daughter to a minor count only to find out later that he was in fact second in line to the throne, and now due to good luck the King ! Nice surprise, but it would be better if I could plan (and Plot !) for this !

 

[klopkr]

This is impossible. The AI decides to join your wars on an individual basis and one of the most important factors is how much they like you which fluctuates radically.

 

[Riekopo]

This is impossible. The AI decides to join your wars on an individual basis and one of the most important factors is how much they like you which fluctuates radically.

There are factors that do not fluctuate are there not?

 

[Slayen]

There are factors that do not fluctuate are there not?

Other than maybe distance, they can all change wildly. And again, their opinion of you and the person you declare war on are the variables that tend to be the most important, and be the variables that can swing the most.

For a simple example, Say you are the King of X and marry into the family of the King of Y.

Now, you declare a holy war against the vile Emir of Z. Y, being the zealous sort of course heeds your call to arms.
Then, fast forward a few years, and you press a claim for the a duchy in the Kingdom of Bob. This time, Y will not join your war as he quite likes the King of Bob, more than he likes you in fact.
Later still, you find that King of Bob has been trying to sleep with your daughter and decided that, if nothing else, you will make that man bend knee in tribute. This time, Y does heed your call because, as it turns out, Bob slept with his wife and impregnated her so now the two are rivals.

Are you starting to see now why it's not really possible to show a binary Yes/No for will honor call to arms on the marriage/betrothal screen?

 

[DraconicEpic]

There are factors that do not fluctuate are there not?

Extending what Slayen, CK2 is a game of people not empires (That would be EU4) and it is people who choose whether or not an alliance will be honored. Even if by some chance we remove opinion, it is simply illogical and game breaking to force the AI into a situation where they have to honor an alliance which is what would be required to add in the feature. Game breaking because the player (possibly even the AI) could use a super power to roll over all the minor realms in the game. What great balance that would be. It'll end up in the corner where nomads unbalanced and partly illogical game mechanics are.

 

[klopkr]

There are factors that do not fluctuate are there not?

As far as I can see the only situation where you can be sure someone will become your ally is through tributaries, lovers, friends, heirs, or your spouse if they are landed and even then if they are allies with your enemy and your enemy calls them in first they cannot help you. So technically there is never a time where you can 100% count on an alliance working.

Just check it for yourself:

And by the way every time you call them to arms they like you less for doing so so the uncertainty is built into the game for most alliances.

It really is impossible. You just have to remember what things will likely make them not honour your alliance and check them yourself before you ally them then make a value decision.

Here's a short list:
Allies of another religion will not help you in a war against their religion
Allies that are too far away are much less likely to honour you call
Allies that like your enemies more wont honour you call
Allies in another major war are less likely to honour your call
Allies will not help you in a war they are already fighting against you in