Your analysis does follow the same lines i sketched in another thread some time ago.
http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/showthread.php?p=10022929
I do, however, not share all of your conclusions.
The main problem is that you are neglecting the fact that officers and techs both drain the same leadership pool. Thus, by selecting what you focus on, you can gain either a technological advantage, or support more units.
My main concern is with TD. It is extremely tech (leadership) hungry. You need not only L.Arm and Arm techs for it, but also some H.Arm and AT. And it is rather useless in the breakthrough role, since its hard attack does not affect the Inf divisions.
If you compare (using 1947 stats)
3 Arm + 2 SP Art (SA:41.13, HA: 29.45, soft: 40%, speed: 9)
with
3 Arm + 1 SP Art + 1 TD (SA: 35.06, HA: 37.22, soft: 31%, speed 7.5)
you immediately see that you lose you combined arms bonus since your softness is below 33%. The division without TD is also 20% faster, and has better soft attack, which is crucial for breaking through.
If you want to restore the combined arms bonus, you must lose one of the combat brigades, i.e., replace an Arm with a TD. You division the looks like
2 Arm + 2 SP Art + 1 TD (SA: 34.8, HA: 31.12, soft: 41%, speed 7.5)
It is inferior to the original one in all respects except HA, and also suffers from the fact that it only can present a frontage of 10 rather than 12.
I would rather have the baseline
3 Arm + 1 Mot (SA: 31.19, HA: 27.41, soft: 36%, speed 8.7)
than mixing in any TDs in the breakthrough divisions.
Of course, for exploitation TDs are even worse. However, your L.Arm + Mot may not be ideal for exploitation either. Mot limits the speed to a mere 8.7, which is lower than a 3 Arm + AC or 3 Arm + 2 SP Art division! Combining L.Arm with Mot only makes sense very early in the war - and what do you do then? Disband them? Mixing L. Arm with AC produces the same problem. AC maxes out at 9.9, making it much more suitable to mix with Arm than L. Arm (max speed 11). The latter is, on the other hand ideal to mix with SP R Art (also speed 11), which can bring up the softness above combined arms threshold.
The main function of AC is that it allows you to make a
3 Arm + 1 AC (SA: 30.99, HA: 25.32, soft: 34%, speed: 9)
division, which is faster and as powerful as the 3 Arm + 1 Mot, despite its lower frontage, but has lower supply consumption and frontage.