dublish said:
... a large submarine fleet was necessary to sufficiently cover the Atlantic convoy routes, so there was a defined lower limit on the number of subs required to wage an effective U-boot campaign based on the number of sea regions through which British convoys passed...
It is worthwhile to try to define this lower limit, below which Convoy-Raiding effectiveness would drop off dramatically.
I found that at any one time, about 15% to 25% of my Submarines were either under repair, regaining ORG in Port, or else either heading home for repairs or heading back to combat stations. Suppose that we require a 25% reserve of Submarines, to allow for repair and replenishment.
I also found that each Sea Area should be covered by two groups of three Submarines. This allows for the AI-driven random movement between Sea-Zones of that Sea Area, making it less likely that a wide hole will spontaneously open in the blockade net... while also making the Submarines harder to detect, increasing their survivability.
The number of Sea Areas that need to be covered is open to debate... at the very least, Gibraltar must be blocked and the gap between South America and Africa must be sealed. That would total at least four Sea Areas (Cap St Vincent, and Coast of Bissao - Cap Verde - Coast of Recife).
The absolute
minimum number of Submarines for an effective blockade would then be 2 packs x 3 Submarines x 4 areas x 125% reserves = 30 Submarines.
I would much prefer, though, to have a double cordon... thus making it even less likely that a hole will open to allow the Convoys through un-molested; and also halving the chance that a spotting failure will let them slip past.
A double cordon would require two extra Areas for the Gibraltar run (Azores and Portugese Coast)... both lucrative hunting grounds, and both within range of Air support from Spanish bases... and two extra Areas for the Atlantic blockade (The Seamounts - The Grand Banks)... these last two would also degrade British trade efficiencies with Canada and the USA.
Doubling the number of Areas covered (from four to eight) would also double the minimum force required... from 30 Submarine flotillas to 60 flotillas. The force that I actually built... 90 Flotillas total... would seem to have over-shot the mark by about 50%.
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Interim Report : June, 1940.
Preparations for Barbarossa move into their final stage. All Armored and Motorized Divisions have been reorganized into 3-Division Combined-Arms Corps, providing me with 12 such Corps... 10 composed of (1 Arm + 2 Mot), 2 composed of (2 Arm + 1 Mot). The two stronger Corps have been renamed SS Panzer Corps.
Tentatively, I have assigned 2 Panzer Corps to Army Group North, 3 Panzer Corps and an SS Panzer Corps (4 total) to Army Group Center, and 5 Panzer Corps and an SS Panzer Corps (6 total) to Army Group South. This concentrates the bulk of the mobile forces in the center and south, where the terrain is more favorable to large-scale mobile operations. Extra Infantry have been assigned to the Northern and Central Army Groups, since the Forest, Swamp and River terrain in those areas will favor leg-Infantry.
Each Army Group (North, Center and South) has been assigned one HQ... the fourth HQ should arrive from France by rail shortly before the campaign opens, and will be assigned to Army Group South.
As to the timing of the operation... there are arguments for attacking either earlier or later. The Soviets have not yet occupied the Baltic States, and if we could beat them to the punch and annex them ourselves, this would relieve the Germans of some OTM overhead during the push into Russia... slightly reducing the TC overload... and also allow us to build our new units closer to the Front.
On the other hand, it will be far easier to get Romania into the Axis if we wait for the USSR to demand Bessarabia and Northern Bukovinia before declaring war on them... thus giving Romania a clear reason to fight the Soviets by our side.
Given the demands of the U-Boat war, my forces for Barbarossa are rather smaller than usual, and those Romanian Divisions would be very useful, whether used in the Front Line on quiet sectors, or on Anti-Partisan Duty in the rear areas.