Good to hear the feedback. The screenshot shown does not demonstrate my usual micro. I just reloaded the save file and ran the battleplan to get an example of what I am talking about -- highly entrenched AI division with extremely high soft attack and defense in late game.
But I do suspect that my infantry and panzer division templates tend to be outdated and weak (reason being I dont want to mess up the whole army organisation by constant upgrading). I also thought my overwhelming number would allow me to overcome any minor EASILY in this game (which tend to prove me wrong since some minors field surprising strong templates).
Having said that, to answer my question with the help of feedback given here, I think the three lessons are:
1. Deploy in right terrain where breakthroughs are easier (infantry for cities, marines for rivers, tanks for plains, what about forests?)
2. Increase the width of your divisions (20 width might not be enough in late game)
3. Upgrade your weapons more often (the enemy is more likely to have advanced weapons in this game, especially strong minor like Sweden who can upgrade their smaller force quicker)
As for the other factors (air superiority, out of supply, not fully trained etc), I do check them frequently. Just the above three -- i tend to neglect in late game. Like in 1947, I am still fielding MASSIVE number of outdated planes and tanks. I am like the Soviets in 1940 -- big but clumsy. So i vastly underestimated Sweden since they are so small and isolated (like the Fins in Winter war). Probably should pause my invasion. Make the effort to upgrade my entire army (or at least the ones in frontline, to make sure i upgrade quickly without getting outdated again ). Better to have a small elite force that is more in line with German doctrine.
You're about where I was in understanding when I first started posting here. I just couldn't realize how I was losing. To help ill clarify some concepts that took me forever to learn:
1) combat width. Due to how the game models damage ect the better the stats of each INDIVIDUAL division the better. So you want huge divisions. 40 width is considered the size for offense because you can't form an 80 width so if attacking from one province two 40s is better than one 50 fighting.
20 width is considered better defensively due to how reinforcement works in the game. 20 width means that there are a total of 4 divisions in normal circumstance that can participate in the battle. Each additional division you assign to the battle will be held in reserve. Once a division in the battle is defeated and slot opens up for a reserve division to participate it begins rolling the dice to see if it does actually join the battle every hour. At base the chance is actually quite dismal but with tech, signal companies and doctrine it gets a bit better.
If all of your divisions in the battle are defeated (org reduced to zero ) or destroyed (hp reduced to zero) before a reserve division rolls successfully to reinforce the battle you lose the fight and all divisions must retreat, even those at 100% strength. Enemies that destroy your organization quickly easily can penetrate your lines due to this mechanic, you just struggle to keep the battle going and they push you around.
So if you defend with 20 width divisions that means you begin trying to reinforce the battle at 75% strength rather than 50% if you had 40 width divisions.
2) experience. Exercises can rank the experience of all your troops up by one giving them a 25% damage boost. So when you recruit a division and it deploys assign it to a training army with exercises turned on. You will watch its exp go up slowly till it levels up once. This basically doubles the training time but 25% bonus stats is well worth it.
3) air supperiority is the most bullshit op thing in the game. The enemy doesnt even need to bomb you to gain serious bonus to their combat stats. They don't even need a plane in that specific battlespace. If they achieve "superiority" in the air region then they are really really and I mean really to the most absurd degree make you suffer. Ive watched as something like 3 interwar chinese planes in the air region of the border of manchuria (thousands of square miles) debuffed my entire manchukuo army. This mechanic is that stupid and that overpowered.
If you have limited resources and have to pick between a dominating air force and tanks take the air force. If you can't afford an air force for the love of God equip every division with aa because of this bullshit mechanic.
4) decryption advantage is basically a free bonus for all your divions. Dedicate a research slot to it if you don't have la resistance. If you do have the dlc dedicate the civilian factory time to building an Intel agency then building a decryption department and FULLY upgrading it. I even do this as tiny little manchukuo. As germany there's no reason not to do it.
5) tactics: tactics your generals will use in the individual battles are so important that I've sometimes felt that it is the primary reason to fully research a doctrinal tree thereby unlocking every one possible.
Because tactics can dramatically swing the battle (often a 25% buff or debuff, but with mass mobilization the defender can shrink the attackers combat width effectively a 50% debuff) every division needs some sort of a recon unit. I feel recon is more important than engineers tbh. Engineers only help in certain situations like if you have time to dig in. Recon ALWAYS helps.
6) with tank divisions the most important thing is to have more armor than the enemy's prospective piercing. In Asia I can get away with really low armor ratings like 10 or less because the chinese are just unlikely to have anything to pierce.
If your armor is higher than their piercing rating you do DOUBLE organization damage.
After armor the most important thing is soft attack not breakthrough. Breakthrough reduces the enemy's ability to hit your unit while you attack. But your goal isn't a protracted battle with tanks. Every hour that you fight the enemy is another chance his reinforcements can join the fight. Since the purpose of tanks is to achieve a break in the enemy front line by targeting infantry you absolutely must maximize soft attack. When you hurt the enemy with said soft attack you also cause org damage. If you have built your tank division correctly for the threat then you will have more armor than he can penetrate creating DOUBLE org damage.
By maximizing soft attack and targeting infantry divisions for penetration of the enemy front you create a situation where you can potentially end battles without having to fight every reinforced division. You hit so hard and fast that the enemy reinforcements are more or less pushed out of the way. This way your tank division can have enough momentum to encircle the enemy.