Oh-oh... War might break out at any moment at this point. I hope the Wehrmacht is already close to its starting positions.
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notger.heinz- Your lack of trust in the Soviets is shared by OKW, but let us remember strategic realities. We do not have the forces to go to war against the Soviets and resonably win at this point. We predic tit will take us all of 1940 to build such a force. Furthermore, we predict that if we take Poland by ourselves the Soviets *will* declare war in 1940, or at least that is an extremly likely possibility. Once Poland is conquered, remember, the vast majority of the forces under OB Ost are going to be transferred to OB West for Cases Red or Yellow, leaving a lightly defended border with the Soviets that should remain secure through 1940. Is it your belief that any of these suppositions by OKW are incorrect? We will begin formulating plans for war against Russia based on the two a.alternatives open to us, however, so that we may more properly see if your correct.
-Von Uber Judging from the Demo in my personal experience, that is correct.
-Lordban, all armies except 9th and 10th army are at their starting positions. Since 9th & 10th army are tasked with the offensive 'punch' portion of Cases Red & Orange, they are concentrated in a single province one province away from their starting positions. I don't want to place them right on the Belgian border, wouldn't want to scare anybody away, would we?
-Von Uber Judging from the Demo in my personal experience, that is correct.
-Lordban, all armies except 9th and 10th army are at their starting positions. Since 9th & 10th army are tasked with the offensive 'punch' portion of Cases Red & Orange, they are concentrated in a single province one province away from their starting positions. I don't want to place them right on the Belgian border, wouldn't want to scare anybody away, would we?
The OKW is obviously beyond doubt and it was never my intention suggest that they might be wrong.
Still, my humble self wants to point out that the Soviets aren't to be trusted anyway and giving them time means letting them prepare better.
The more experienced of our planning staff, old veterans from WW1 want to point out, that we beat the Russians in a two-front war the last time we encountered them and might do so again, even much faster due to our technical and social superiority. After all, facism is the superior model.
Furthermore, granting the Soviets influence in the Baltikum will mean our troops, short in numbers as they are, will have to attack/defend on a broader front. And once the attacks bear fruit, they will have to conquer and control more unimportant territory which will - even worse - make our coastline in the Baltic Sea very long and very difficult to defend against an invasion.
Then, when the soviets attack and we are not ready for it, we could even use the baltic states as a natural border against which we can trap advancing soviet troops and encircle them, just like a coast-line, w/o the danger of being invaded by sea.
After all, it boils down to the question of wether we fear a russian attack or not and wether we expect our giving in to effectively stalling them. And: Do we expect to have enough divisions to maintain a solid line of defence? What is the largest border we can accept and expect to hold/expand?
Since the war in Russia is expected to last long, once it breaks out, it is of vital importance to be able to seize the resource rich south of russia to starve their industry. The nearer our troops are to that area, the better.
As an alternative, the OKW could kindly consider the possibility of stalling the war in the West, stopping the French and British at the Maginot line and not implement Case Red or Yellow, but instead aim at attacking the Soviet Union first, getting them out as fast as possible. Then (possibly in 1941/1942), the necessary forces could be relocated to the West to press throught the Benelux.
Remember our detailed analysis of 1933: The french army is the largest and most modern in the world. One could expect that they are defending their northern border very quickly.
They did not in WW1 and who would expect them to make the same mistake twice?
(To clarify: Your strategy is better, but mainly because you know how this is going to play out. I wanted to make a point from the view of someone who is an "old guard" from WW1 and believes in a long western war. Though I started out to make my point with the knowledge that it is possible to start the war in early 1939 and have France surrender before summer school holidays and then blitz the SU in Mar 1940.)
Still, my humble self wants to point out that the Soviets aren't to be trusted anyway and giving them time means letting them prepare better.
The more experienced of our planning staff, old veterans from WW1 want to point out, that we beat the Russians in a two-front war the last time we encountered them and might do so again, even much faster due to our technical and social superiority. After all, facism is the superior model.
Furthermore, granting the Soviets influence in the Baltikum will mean our troops, short in numbers as they are, will have to attack/defend on a broader front. And once the attacks bear fruit, they will have to conquer and control more unimportant territory which will - even worse - make our coastline in the Baltic Sea very long and very difficult to defend against an invasion.
Then, when the soviets attack and we are not ready for it, we could even use the baltic states as a natural border against which we can trap advancing soviet troops and encircle them, just like a coast-line, w/o the danger of being invaded by sea.
After all, it boils down to the question of wether we fear a russian attack or not and wether we expect our giving in to effectively stalling them. And: Do we expect to have enough divisions to maintain a solid line of defence? What is the largest border we can accept and expect to hold/expand?
Since the war in Russia is expected to last long, once it breaks out, it is of vital importance to be able to seize the resource rich south of russia to starve their industry. The nearer our troops are to that area, the better.
As an alternative, the OKW could kindly consider the possibility of stalling the war in the West, stopping the French and British at the Maginot line and not implement Case Red or Yellow, but instead aim at attacking the Soviet Union first, getting them out as fast as possible. Then (possibly in 1941/1942), the necessary forces could be relocated to the West to press throught the Benelux.
Remember our detailed analysis of 1933: The french army is the largest and most modern in the world. One could expect that they are defending their northern border very quickly.
They did not in WW1 and who would expect them to make the same mistake twice?
(To clarify: Your strategy is better, but mainly because you know how this is going to play out. I wanted to make a point from the view of someone who is an "old guard" from WW1 and believes in a long western war. Though I started out to make my point with the knowledge that it is possible to start the war in early 1939 and have France surrender before summer school holidays and then blitz the SU in Mar 1940.)
I say keep with it, maybe it will succeed, maybe it won't, only one way to find out!
Do it!
Don't take Memel. Like you said it will raise your dissent, and what you get really isn't worth a hoot. Remember though, if the event is the same as HoI2, Russia won't get claims on Memel, so when they demand the territory, you with have a rump Lithuania left, this could be a setback or an advantage.
Start getting on those Sea Doctrines.
Remember, notger.heinz, this is not Russia: we encourage thinking in our commanders. As such, OKW is *not* beyond doubt, and we appreciate your questions and the concerns you raise.
You are correct, we beat the Russians last time, after about three years, when they were lead by the Tsars, and before the recent Industrial expansion that Russia has undergone. We believe the Russia we face now is an entirely different animal. Of course, our own abilities are very much strengthened from the previous war as well.
However, OKW does not expect the war with Russia to last awhile. Or more properly, it does not expect a *successful* war to last more than two years, ideally one. If we enter 1943 and we're still at war with the soviets, OKW fears for the outcome. We cannot, however, simply count on peace with Russia, as you said, they are not be trusted, and we expect they would be prepared for war and declare it no later than 1944. As such, we must defeat them before they are ready to defeat *us*. The only question is from what starting positions and before or after the French. OKW does not believe it will have the forces to successfully execute such an invasion until 1941, however, and dealing with the French would significantly ease our strategic situation, as defending beaches against the UK should take fewer forces than we currently have committed to the western theater.
On the western front, meanwhile, you are correct, our analysis of the French army said it was the largest and most modern of the time in 1933. But it is 1939 now. Our intelligence indicates they have 50 divisions, lower than our own 66 division strength. Furthermore, it is OKW's belief that the French army is suffering under the weight of building up too early in a time where tanks are getting better every year in significant ways. The Light Tankettes and Armored Cars that were the envy of the world in 1933 have been surpassed by Light Tanks and will even more so be surpassed by Medium Tanks. Our intelligence services believe that the French have very few of such brigades. A short victory *should* be possible. If we fail to execute it, however, our problems will start, the UK will begin commiting the forces of its dominions (which are, needless to say, secure for the forseeable future) into the war, attacking the Italians whose tatical and strategic acumen we have dubious confidence in, and eveyr day the US will be drawn closer to the war.
In short, we believe a long war on *either* front means risking a loss, especially since the longer the war goes on the more certain the entrance of the US becomes. Since a long war is a losing one, OKW doctrinal and building recommendations have been seen to attempt to *prevent* one. And the best opportunity to do so is by taking out France quickly (by which we mean within roughly 3 months), finish building our forces and then taking on Russia the next year, which itself will take the entire campaign season.
Remember that the Schiefflien Plan fell just short of succeeding in WW1, but the infantry was exhausted by the time of the Battle of the Marne and the French and British were able to deploy strategic reserves. Case Yellow attempts to solve the first problem by creating divisions with larger motorized and tank elements that should be able to advance more quickly without exhausting themselves, while Case Red attempts to solve *both* problems by luring the BEF and French reserves into the Netherlands.
We also want to note the internal divisions of the French state noted by our intelligence operatives. The French people are alot more fractured than they were in 1914, and it is our hope that this should make victory more certain.
As far as the Baltics, we'll grant that a more detailed look at the starting positions if we take all of Poland is awfully tempting, but it becomes less so if Russia suceeds in pressing its claims on the Baltic states in spite of us, which is at least theoretically possible.
Your analysis, furthermore, is predicated on the belief that capturing Russian territory is the goal, OKW's initial planning is that it isn't, rather the goal is to thin the Russian army. Capturing resource centers only matters if the war continues for more than a year, and will occur naturally if we are able to thin the Russian force. Capturing centers of political control is not practicable without eliminating the army first as well, there is too much territory and the Russians have too many troops.
Actually, the Japanese disaster in Manchuria is intructive in this regard: it demonstrates how a force that is both numerically and qualatativily inferior can beat a foe: By achieving local superiority in numbers and by having the superior force be distracted by other commitments.
If we can achieve overall parity in numbers with the Russian force by 1941, which we believe we can, we should actually *outnumber* them on our border, since they will have to disperse at least some forces to defend their eastern theater and other areas.
The possibility of a sea invasion from the Baltics is something we have considered, but there is a simple way to secure our entire coastline in the eastern theatre: Capture Denmark. We have begun drawing up plans to do precisely that because of the concerns you have raised.
You are correct, we beat the Russians last time, after about three years, when they were lead by the Tsars, and before the recent Industrial expansion that Russia has undergone. We believe the Russia we face now is an entirely different animal. Of course, our own abilities are very much strengthened from the previous war as well.
However, OKW does not expect the war with Russia to last awhile. Or more properly, it does not expect a *successful* war to last more than two years, ideally one. If we enter 1943 and we're still at war with the soviets, OKW fears for the outcome. We cannot, however, simply count on peace with Russia, as you said, they are not be trusted, and we expect they would be prepared for war and declare it no later than 1944. As such, we must defeat them before they are ready to defeat *us*. The only question is from what starting positions and before or after the French. OKW does not believe it will have the forces to successfully execute such an invasion until 1941, however, and dealing with the French would significantly ease our strategic situation, as defending beaches against the UK should take fewer forces than we currently have committed to the western theater.
On the western front, meanwhile, you are correct, our analysis of the French army said it was the largest and most modern of the time in 1933. But it is 1939 now. Our intelligence indicates they have 50 divisions, lower than our own 66 division strength. Furthermore, it is OKW's belief that the French army is suffering under the weight of building up too early in a time where tanks are getting better every year in significant ways. The Light Tankettes and Armored Cars that were the envy of the world in 1933 have been surpassed by Light Tanks and will even more so be surpassed by Medium Tanks. Our intelligence services believe that the French have very few of such brigades. A short victory *should* be possible. If we fail to execute it, however, our problems will start, the UK will begin commiting the forces of its dominions (which are, needless to say, secure for the forseeable future) into the war, attacking the Italians whose tatical and strategic acumen we have dubious confidence in, and eveyr day the US will be drawn closer to the war.
In short, we believe a long war on *either* front means risking a loss, especially since the longer the war goes on the more certain the entrance of the US becomes. Since a long war is a losing one, OKW doctrinal and building recommendations have been seen to attempt to *prevent* one. And the best opportunity to do so is by taking out France quickly (by which we mean within roughly 3 months), finish building our forces and then taking on Russia the next year, which itself will take the entire campaign season.
Remember that the Schiefflien Plan fell just short of succeeding in WW1, but the infantry was exhausted by the time of the Battle of the Marne and the French and British were able to deploy strategic reserves. Case Yellow attempts to solve the first problem by creating divisions with larger motorized and tank elements that should be able to advance more quickly without exhausting themselves, while Case Red attempts to solve *both* problems by luring the BEF and French reserves into the Netherlands.
We also want to note the internal divisions of the French state noted by our intelligence operatives. The French people are alot more fractured than they were in 1914, and it is our hope that this should make victory more certain.
As far as the Baltics, we'll grant that a more detailed look at the starting positions if we take all of Poland is awfully tempting, but it becomes less so if Russia suceeds in pressing its claims on the Baltic states in spite of us, which is at least theoretically possible.
Your analysis, furthermore, is predicated on the belief that capturing Russian territory is the goal, OKW's initial planning is that it isn't, rather the goal is to thin the Russian army. Capturing resource centers only matters if the war continues for more than a year, and will occur naturally if we are able to thin the Russian force. Capturing centers of political control is not practicable without eliminating the army first as well, there is too much territory and the Russians have too many troops.
Actually, the Japanese disaster in Manchuria is intructive in this regard: it demonstrates how a force that is both numerically and qualatativily inferior can beat a foe: By achieving local superiority in numbers and by having the superior force be distracted by other commitments.
If we can achieve overall parity in numbers with the Russian force by 1941, which we believe we can, we should actually *outnumber* them on our border, since they will have to disperse at least some forces to defend their eastern theater and other areas.
The possibility of a sea invasion from the Baltics is something we have considered, but there is a simple way to secure our entire coastline in the eastern theatre: Capture Denmark. We have begun drawing up plans to do precisely that because of the concerns you have raised.
Very well, I see that the OKW is susceptible to modern thinking and risk taking.
I say predicting the french to fall within three months is bold.
We at the Ludendorff-veteran-home hope, that your predictions hold true and that you will not be surprised by the resilient french and british defense that stalls you long enough for the russian betrayal to strike hard.
Denmark would secure the Baltic Sea, except for those that are already there. The russian baltic fleet is strong.
I say predicting the french to fall within three months is bold.
We at the Ludendorff-veteran-home hope, that your predictions hold true and that you will not be surprised by the resilient french and british defense that stalls you long enough for the russian betrayal to strike hard.
Denmark would secure the Baltic Sea, except for those that are already there. The russian baltic fleet is strong.
We only are susceptable to doing what we see necessary to win the war. Or to put it another way, the only 'safe' course would have been to sit tight at this point and simply continue to build our forces as much as they could stand it and *not* declare war. That would guarantee that most of the goal of Greater Germany would suceed, and its likely we can make everyone not want to go to war with us with our forces. That is the only 'safe' option.
But, if we want Danzig back, or if we fear that given a decade to build of the Russians may be able to conquer is in any case, that leaves us in a dicey strategic situation: An enemy to the east we must eliminate within a certain time frame, and enemies to the west who might start learning working up to a truly dangerous force if given time.
In actuality, if you look at our intelligence estimates, you'll see that war with Russia is currently more risky than war with France as it is. If we had the strategic capacity to go to war this year against them, we would, but we believe that Germany should be able to outbuild them through 1940, making 1941 the most advantageous year to tackle them.
And of course, given that the estimated start date for a Russian invasion in OKW's plans is April 1941, we have a the full year of campaigning in France to achieve a victory.
I respect our esteemed members of OKWs staff in their short term view of the immediate surroundings for Germany, but I must submit that we should look beyond our physical borders as well. Remember friends, Germany as a world power decades ago held island territories in the Pacific, ones that Japan had claimed after the last war. If we decide that our main focus must be Europe and the surrounding environs, then so be it. However we should keep an eye out for our brothers to the far East. Is there some sort of assistance we can provide them? Are they in need of supplies or information or even some technical assistance from our diplomats and spies? These might be issues OKW should glance at, even if sparingly...
I might be mistaken, but when I add up the numbers, it is 230 divisions for the "allies" and 90+ divisions for the communists.
That makes the allies the far more dangerous threat - they outnumber you 4-1 - and I agree with the OKW: Hit them hard, hit them fast and hit them when their troops are not yet ready.
I just advise the OKW not to wait too long and preferably hit the Soviet Union before it mobilizes, too. Or shortly thereafter, since mobilisation takes time.
On another note, there is a joke here in Germany which adresses your concerns about the italian steadfastness. It goes like this: "Italian rifles for sale! Un-used, only dropped once."
That makes the allies the far more dangerous threat - they outnumber you 4-1 - and I agree with the OKW: Hit them hard, hit them fast and hit them when their troops are not yet ready.
I just advise the OKW not to wait too long and preferably hit the Soviet Union before it mobilizes, too. Or shortly thereafter, since mobilisation takes time.
On another note, there is a joke here in Germany which adresses your concerns about the italian steadfastness. It goes like this: "Italian rifles for sale! Un-used, only dropped once."
When considering the West versus East strike, not only remember the frailty of the French troops to stand up in combat. When frightened, they will easily run with their tails tucked between their legs. With the might of the Wehrmacht, we can overrun Paris in mere weeks. The British will not have enough time to deploy to the Continent to be an effect standing force, especially with the French in rabble around them.
As for the Soviets...they are tenacious fighters, of that there an be no doubt. And one reason for our success in the last war against the Russians, we must remember, is because of civil strife within the country. We cannot count on such to occur again, and we cannot cause such a strife, it is, as they say 'far too late in the game'.
We must flatten Poland, and do an immediate about face and smash the French before they can be reinforced by the British (and we'll skirt their so-called Maginot Line). If that means we have to appease the Soviets by letting them occupy a bit of our rightful Lebensraum for a few years, so be it. We shall deal with them in time.
The Soviet Union is far too large a country for us to hope to smash it, and THEN turn on the French, that fact must be realized. Our fight must be made with an artful stroke...Right, left, right.
As for the Soviets...they are tenacious fighters, of that there an be no doubt. And one reason for our success in the last war against the Russians, we must remember, is because of civil strife within the country. We cannot count on such to occur again, and we cannot cause such a strife, it is, as they say 'far too late in the game'.
We must flatten Poland, and do an immediate about face and smash the French before they can be reinforced by the British (and we'll skirt their so-called Maginot Line). If that means we have to appease the Soviets by letting them occupy a bit of our rightful Lebensraum for a few years, so be it. We shall deal with them in time.
The Soviet Union is far too large a country for us to hope to smash it, and THEN turn on the French, that fact must be realized. Our fight must be made with an artful stroke...Right, left, right.
Jorath13-Unfortunately you can no longer help allies research by giving them blueprints, which kind of sucks for the German player who has alot of allies that could use German tech help. I have some spies situated in Japan, but there are no missions I can think of to run that would help them, besides the indirect raise national unity or ruling party missions. Beyond that, I can't think of any other sort of help we could give them under the present circumstances, what they need most is a new army, but I can't provide that for them. There hasn't been much OKW discussion of ways to help the east for the simple reason we can't think of anything to do. In an ideal world we'd have a navy and some spare forces to commit in Asia, but that, unfortunetly, is not within our capabilities either.
notger.heinz- It is our hope that the Italians turn out to not be so bad as all that. All I need them to do, truly, is not collapse under the French while I deal with Poland. If they can merely hold out for about a month or two they should be able to manage, they can lose Africa for all we care, its a tertiary theatre. Were the Japanese a threat to Asia this might have been diffrent, capturing the Suez canal would force the British to send their supply convoys to their forces in Asia all the way around Africa and significantly complicate their defensive situation, but that is not going to happen. We'd still like to capture Gibraltar as that should make it more difficult for the British to hold the Mediterranean.
Ezaco18- It pays to remember that the average solder of every country, including France, is brave. If you make it clear that his bravery will be in vain because he is in a losing fight, however, the average man is more than happy to begin thinking of himself first. Furthermore, modern warfare is not so much about the individual solder as the unit he is a part of. If our offensive efforts tear apart the cohesion of a unit, each man will be forced to deal with his situaiton by himself, some of them will run, some will surrender, some of them will retreat in an organized fashion, while some will make a stand. But this dispersal of effort will make their actions relativily ineffective. It is *that* which we wish to achieve on a tatical and strategic level: making resistance ineffective.
We are drawing up our general war plans and our updates of Cases White, Yellow, and Red, as well as some of our other plans, which we will be presented within a few hours.
notger.heinz- It is our hope that the Italians turn out to not be so bad as all that. All I need them to do, truly, is not collapse under the French while I deal with Poland. If they can merely hold out for about a month or two they should be able to manage, they can lose Africa for all we care, its a tertiary theatre. Were the Japanese a threat to Asia this might have been diffrent, capturing the Suez canal would force the British to send their supply convoys to their forces in Asia all the way around Africa and significantly complicate their defensive situation, but that is not going to happen. We'd still like to capture Gibraltar as that should make it more difficult for the British to hold the Mediterranean.
Ezaco18- It pays to remember that the average solder of every country, including France, is brave. If you make it clear that his bravery will be in vain because he is in a losing fight, however, the average man is more than happy to begin thinking of himself first. Furthermore, modern warfare is not so much about the individual solder as the unit he is a part of. If our offensive efforts tear apart the cohesion of a unit, each man will be forced to deal with his situaiton by himself, some of them will run, some will surrender, some of them will retreat in an organized fashion, while some will make a stand. But this dispersal of effort will make their actions relativily ineffective. It is *that* which we wish to achieve on a tatical and strategic level: making resistance ineffective.
We are drawing up our general war plans and our updates of Cases White, Yellow, and Red, as well as some of our other plans, which we will be presented within a few hours.
[size=+2]War Planning[/size]
Since we now know what our strategic situation will be if war breaks out and the forces we expect to have on hand, a basic overall war plan can now be reasonably produced.
The green arrows are defensive actions. 7th & 8th armies will hold the French army at the Siegfried Line while the 1st Garrison Army will secure Slovakia while Case White proceeds. It should be noted that 7th & 8th Panzerkorps are attached to 5th and 6th armies, so those armies have two panzerkorps each for their offensives. These Panzerkorps came from 9th and 10th armies, but they won't need them until Poland is finished. It is OKW's belief that commiting extra push to the Polish campaign is worth it, furthermore the attakc on Poland should give our troops some experience to better prepare them for push through France.
If the Netherlands and Belgium join the allies before the war, or if it looks like they are close to doing so, we will disperse the armeekorps of 9th & 10th armies, along with the extra divisions being created by our artillery building program along the border. This would represent a total of 28 infantry divisions defending 9 provinces, which should be sufficient given the forces we know they have.
The west will hold with those forces while Case White is executed.
This is not substantially diffrent from the original plans, so it should be clear. Orange arrows are secondary objectives for 2nd and 3rd armies that are not along their line of attack.
As you can see, the axis of attack attempt to both create a number of encirclements as well as capture strategic objectives in a rapid manner.
Upon the fall of Poland 1st, 2nd and 3rd armies will detach their panzerkorps and have their armeekorps hold the border with Russia, be it along the partition line or further east.
Fourth army will be SR'ed to the Danish border and then execute Case Blue into Denmark and if necessary, Norway with the cooperation of the Kriegsmarine. We may choose to devote more forces to Case Blue and wait to execute Case Yellow or Red for a month while Case Blue is executed.
Fourth army's advance into Denmark is simple enough, we will see if attaching the Kriegmarine to 4th army's HQ will lead to a proper cooperation between the services. 4th army upon taking Oslo could leave a corps to defend it and send a second force to take Narvik, or it may choose to march all the way up Norway. If it does the latter we may need to delay Case Yellow or Red and devote an additional army or two to the attack.
Assuming a speedy Case blue, 5th and 6th armies will detach their Panzerkorps and SR to the Dutch border to prepare for Case Red. If 9th and 10th armies are situated along the border, they will re-concentrate at their starting positions as 5th and 6th army arrive.
1st through 8th Panzerkorps will then be attached to 9th and 10th armies for the main push of Case Yellow or Red.
We want to see how our commanders handle different force concentrations, so 10th army will consist of 5 panzerkorps and no armeekorps, while 9th army will consist of 3 Panzerkorps and 2 armeekorps. The additional 2 armeekorps from 10th army will act as a defensive reserve as a separate army not marked on the map. This army will be told to hold along the line of advance and make sure our offensive arm doesn't get cut off. We're wondering if 10th army will properly react to its force composition by not waiting for its infantry, if this occurs it may be worth considering organizing entie panzerarmees instead of simply as korps.
On balance, OKW is currently leaning towards Case Red, Holland is clearly leaning towards the allies and if we execute Case Yellow and they then join the allies our forces could be caught in an embarassing situation. Since we have to deploy our forces to defend against a potential attack from them anyway, we mineswell commit 5th & 6th army to Case Red, their presence is unecessary for the push through Beligum, they would simply make the logistic situation there even worse than it would be. Our analysis of the costs of occupying the Netherlands has led us to believe it is worthwhile, and remember, it is our belief that the Netherlands will at some point join the allies in any case, as such it is bets to attack them on our own terms.
Discussion of the Russian campaign, which is more hypothetical, will follow in our next report.
Since we now know what our strategic situation will be if war breaks out and the forces we expect to have on hand, a basic overall war plan can now be reasonably produced.
The green arrows are defensive actions. 7th & 8th armies will hold the French army at the Siegfried Line while the 1st Garrison Army will secure Slovakia while Case White proceeds. It should be noted that 7th & 8th Panzerkorps are attached to 5th and 6th armies, so those armies have two panzerkorps each for their offensives. These Panzerkorps came from 9th and 10th armies, but they won't need them until Poland is finished. It is OKW's belief that commiting extra push to the Polish campaign is worth it, furthermore the attakc on Poland should give our troops some experience to better prepare them for push through France.
If the Netherlands and Belgium join the allies before the war, or if it looks like they are close to doing so, we will disperse the armeekorps of 9th & 10th armies, along with the extra divisions being created by our artillery building program along the border. This would represent a total of 28 infantry divisions defending 9 provinces, which should be sufficient given the forces we know they have.
The west will hold with those forces while Case White is executed.
This is not substantially diffrent from the original plans, so it should be clear. Orange arrows are secondary objectives for 2nd and 3rd armies that are not along their line of attack.
As you can see, the axis of attack attempt to both create a number of encirclements as well as capture strategic objectives in a rapid manner.
Upon the fall of Poland 1st, 2nd and 3rd armies will detach their panzerkorps and have their armeekorps hold the border with Russia, be it along the partition line or further east.
Fourth army will be SR'ed to the Danish border and then execute Case Blue into Denmark and if necessary, Norway with the cooperation of the Kriegsmarine. We may choose to devote more forces to Case Blue and wait to execute Case Yellow or Red for a month while Case Blue is executed.
Fourth army's advance into Denmark is simple enough, we will see if attaching the Kriegmarine to 4th army's HQ will lead to a proper cooperation between the services. 4th army upon taking Oslo could leave a corps to defend it and send a second force to take Narvik, or it may choose to march all the way up Norway. If it does the latter we may need to delay Case Yellow or Red and devote an additional army or two to the attack.
Assuming a speedy Case blue, 5th and 6th armies will detach their Panzerkorps and SR to the Dutch border to prepare for Case Red. If 9th and 10th armies are situated along the border, they will re-concentrate at their starting positions as 5th and 6th army arrive.
1st through 8th Panzerkorps will then be attached to 9th and 10th armies for the main push of Case Yellow or Red.
We want to see how our commanders handle different force concentrations, so 10th army will consist of 5 panzerkorps and no armeekorps, while 9th army will consist of 3 Panzerkorps and 2 armeekorps. The additional 2 armeekorps from 10th army will act as a defensive reserve as a separate army not marked on the map. This army will be told to hold along the line of advance and make sure our offensive arm doesn't get cut off. We're wondering if 10th army will properly react to its force composition by not waiting for its infantry, if this occurs it may be worth considering organizing entie panzerarmees instead of simply as korps.
On balance, OKW is currently leaning towards Case Red, Holland is clearly leaning towards the allies and if we execute Case Yellow and they then join the allies our forces could be caught in an embarassing situation. Since we have to deploy our forces to defend against a potential attack from them anyway, we mineswell commit 5th & 6th army to Case Red, their presence is unecessary for the push through Beligum, they would simply make the logistic situation there even worse than it would be. Our analysis of the costs of occupying the Netherlands has led us to believe it is worthwhile, and remember, it is our belief that the Netherlands will at some point join the allies in any case, as such it is bets to attack them on our own terms.
Discussion of the Russian campaign, which is more hypothetical, will follow in our next report.
[size=+2]Operation Barbarossa[/size]
Barbarossa is a large complex operation, completely larger in scale and scope than anything OKW has tackled up to this point. We have two plans: One assumes a partition of Poland, the other does not. Let us look at the first:
The expected starting border is the red line. As you can see, the Operaiton is a series of large encircelements followed by a breakout.
Each main axis of attack, we believe, will need to be an entire army group.
The Red Phase will seek to make the Baltics, the Prepet Marshes, and the border with Hungary pockets where the Russian forces there can be eliminated. This should take roughly a month to do. At the end of it we expect the front line to be the line in yellow. Another series of encircelements that will seek to cut of Leningrad, the forces on the Romanian border and the center of the Russian army will ensue.
At this point a general advance should be possible, finishing up Leningrad with an army or two while an armygroup advances on Moscow and two armygroups seek to capture Stalingrad and the Baku oilfields.
Here is the other alternative:
The big question here is what happens to the Baltic states: It is possible the Russians my be able to aquire them even without our agreement. If this occurs the frontline in red will expand to include the section in orange. This represents both a risk and an oppurtunity, it will lenghten our front line more than would be the case if we partition Poland, but it also allows us a simpler encircelement of the forces there along the axis in Orange. The red phase will occur first as well, regardless of the status of the Baltic and seek to encircle the center and the forces along the border in Romania.
The Yellow Phase will exploit these gain by taking Leningrad if it hasn't fallen yet, encircling Moscow, and the southern front as well. Blue will consist of mopping up Moscow and a general breakout towards Stalingrad and the Baku oilfields.
A few problems OKW sees with its own plan: Some of these encircelements are very, very large, and may not be possible both in terms of force strength and in terms of our commanders being able to pull them off (remember, the AI will be given the axis of attack and sent on its way)
We'll have to see how the Polish and French campaigns to see wether the AI is truly capable of achieving a breakout. I'm fairly confident that given sufficient force *I* could do this myself, but that's not the point of this AAR now is it?
Comments are welcome.
Barbarossa is a large complex operation, completely larger in scale and scope than anything OKW has tackled up to this point. We have two plans: One assumes a partition of Poland, the other does not. Let us look at the first:
The expected starting border is the red line. As you can see, the Operaiton is a series of large encircelements followed by a breakout.
Each main axis of attack, we believe, will need to be an entire army group.
The Red Phase will seek to make the Baltics, the Prepet Marshes, and the border with Hungary pockets where the Russian forces there can be eliminated. This should take roughly a month to do. At the end of it we expect the front line to be the line in yellow. Another series of encircelements that will seek to cut of Leningrad, the forces on the Romanian border and the center of the Russian army will ensue.
At this point a general advance should be possible, finishing up Leningrad with an army or two while an armygroup advances on Moscow and two armygroups seek to capture Stalingrad and the Baku oilfields.
Here is the other alternative:
The big question here is what happens to the Baltic states: It is possible the Russians my be able to aquire them even without our agreement. If this occurs the frontline in red will expand to include the section in orange. This represents both a risk and an oppurtunity, it will lenghten our front line more than would be the case if we partition Poland, but it also allows us a simpler encircelement of the forces there along the axis in Orange. The red phase will occur first as well, regardless of the status of the Baltic and seek to encircle the center and the forces along the border in Romania.
The Yellow Phase will exploit these gain by taking Leningrad if it hasn't fallen yet, encircling Moscow, and the southern front as well. Blue will consist of mopping up Moscow and a general breakout towards Stalingrad and the Baku oilfields.
A few problems OKW sees with its own plan: Some of these encircelements are very, very large, and may not be possible both in terms of force strength and in terms of our commanders being able to pull them off (remember, the AI will be given the axis of attack and sent on its way)
We'll have to see how the Polish and French campaigns to see wether the AI is truly capable of achieving a breakout. I'm fairly confident that given sufficient force *I* could do this myself, but that's not the point of this AAR now is it?
Comments are welcome.
Really great AAR, been enjoying it since the beginning. Your Barbarossa(s) seem very solid, nothing really to add other then I am eagerly awaiting the results of the AI's progress.
In my current game, the mega-allies have formed. I've delayed the war in the west until spring '41. I did not agree to the M-R pact. As my strategic situation is quite different then yours (USA, low countries and scandinavia all in the allies by '38) my eastern plan is wholly defensive while I plan on Seelowe and pacifying Scandinavia. My Eastern strategy is to build the East Wall from the Baltic to the Romanian border, possibly connecting it to the old Czech forts to provide a southern flank barrier should Romania or Hungary falls.
It doesn't apply to your game, but it's a fun (mostly role-play) strategy when you have to deal with the mega-Allies. It's different playing a mildly sane OKW who realizes that dealing with the realities of an offensive war in Russia while fighting off an angry mobilized US-led alliance in the west is not such a good idea.
In my current game, the mega-allies have formed. I've delayed the war in the west until spring '41. I did not agree to the M-R pact. As my strategic situation is quite different then yours (USA, low countries and scandinavia all in the allies by '38) my eastern plan is wholly defensive while I plan on Seelowe and pacifying Scandinavia. My Eastern strategy is to build the East Wall from the Baltic to the Romanian border, possibly connecting it to the old Czech forts to provide a southern flank barrier should Romania or Hungary falls.
It doesn't apply to your game, but it's a fun (mostly role-play) strategy when you have to deal with the mega-Allies. It's different playing a mildly sane OKW who realizes that dealing with the realities of an offensive war in Russia while fighting off an angry mobilized US-led alliance in the west is not such a good idea.
All plans look good, interesting to note you already have Barbarossa in mind.
About Norway, how shure are we that this will be sufficient, this isn't HoI2, take Oslo and Narvik and you're done. I think Norway will take significantly more to take down.
About Norway, how shure are we that this will be sufficient, this isn't HoI2, take Oslo and Narvik and you're done. I think Norway will take significantly more to take down.
I love the explanations you give in this AAR...I'm looking at implementing that aspect into my Japanese AAR.
As the only staffer apparently concerned with what is happening to the Asiatic theatre, might I remind OKW that a strong Japan means a weaker UK, French, Dutch, and ultimately US presence in Europe? Plus if Japan were to threaten Russia perhaps Barbarossa would not be quite so daunting as it seems? Of course, as OKW has adroitly pointed out, there is little support we can give Japan at this point other than some pointless speeches of unity.
As the only staffer apparently concerned with what is happening to the Asiatic theatre, might I remind OKW that a strong Japan means a weaker UK, French, Dutch, and ultimately US presence in Europe? Plus if Japan were to threaten Russia perhaps Barbarossa would not be quite so daunting as it seems? Of course, as OKW has adroitly pointed out, there is little support we can give Japan at this point other than some pointless speeches of unity.
A very nice first look at Operation Barbarossa, and good overview of your other plans to date.
Also, don't forget to pass on your award as WritAAR of the week to whoever you wish, sometime in the next couple days.
Also, don't forget to pass on your award as WritAAR of the week to whoever you wish, sometime in the next couple days.
I think the General Staff has decided to abandon Japan.
Their performance is so poor, all the help that could be given to make them stronger would obviously be squandered.
Their performance is so poor, all the help that could be given to make them stronger would obviously be squandered.
Maj. von Mauser- I've checked twice now, and the only Norwegian VP's are in Oslo and Narvik. Basically what's going to happen is that the forces of Case Red are going to need time to organize themselves, perhaps two weeks. I'm going to hold an army or two near the Danish border as Case Blue executes. I'm pretty sure the AI will be smart enough to hop on its assigned transports and land near Oslo and capture it. The real question is whether it will remain smart and *reboard* its transports and perform another landing operation at Narvik. If I see the AI take Oslo and begin marching north, I'll know to transport more forces in simply to cover the necessary provinces. If I don't, I can free them to execute Red simultaneously with Blue.
Jorath13- I think all of the General Staff is much distraught over the Japanese situation, we simply don't see anything we can *do* about it. At this point, what is there to say? The entire point of inviting Japan to the axis was the hope they would do precisely as you said: threaten the Allies in the pacific and give the Russians a second theater to worry about. All may not be lost, however. Shanxi is a new and disturbing presence to the Russians. While the Japanese might have been distracted from Russia by their quest for a greater asia co-prosperity sphere, Shanxi at this point will certainly have its attention on its border, and the Russians will have to devote some forces there if nothing else to keep them honest. It's not the situation OKW wanted in Asia at all, but with no power projection abilities, what can we do? If you come up with any ideas, please, do present them.
Myth- Don't worry, I haven't forgotten.
Maj. von Mauser- *If* OKW had a spare army group or two in its hat and the ability to transport them across the world, you bet wed send our forces over and hand them over to Japan as expeditionary forces to at least let them regain Manchuria. But while we're wishing for that, we'd also like a pretty pink unicorn to ride into battle.
Jorath13- I think all of the General Staff is much distraught over the Japanese situation, we simply don't see anything we can *do* about it. At this point, what is there to say? The entire point of inviting Japan to the axis was the hope they would do precisely as you said: threaten the Allies in the pacific and give the Russians a second theater to worry about. All may not be lost, however. Shanxi is a new and disturbing presence to the Russians. While the Japanese might have been distracted from Russia by their quest for a greater asia co-prosperity sphere, Shanxi at this point will certainly have its attention on its border, and the Russians will have to devote some forces there if nothing else to keep them honest. It's not the situation OKW wanted in Asia at all, but with no power projection abilities, what can we do? If you come up with any ideas, please, do present them.
Myth- Don't worry, I haven't forgotten.
Maj. von Mauser- *If* OKW had a spare army group or two in its hat and the ability to transport them across the world, you bet wed send our forces over and hand them over to Japan as expeditionary forces to at least let them regain Manchuria. But while we're wishing for that, we'd also like a pretty pink unicorn to ride into battle.
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Well, if your Japanese consultant can procur a pretty pink unicorn with yellow ribbons in its hair, would you consider? :rofl:
Yes, the Asian situation is terrible, but it should still be monitored. In the meantime, you have wars to plan, assassinations to work on, you're just swamped! It'll be interesting to see what the AI does with the tools it has to complete the objectives you give it.
Yes, the Asian situation is terrible, but it should still be monitored. In the meantime, you have wars to plan, assassinations to work on, you're just swamped! It'll be interesting to see what the AI does with the tools it has to complete the objectives you give it.