A lot of people (myself included) ignore the option to support rebels since it rarely does anything and costs a lot of money to do. Some astute players on the forums have previously observed that if you DO throw away ducats like a madman and the target nation just happens to have a lot of province with peasant rebels or something similar as the rebels that would pop up(and often they do) then it's possible to completely ruin a nation and cackle maniacally as the rebels overrun their army. Maybe also overrun their nation and get the easiest 100% peacedeal of all time while you're at it.
... but that almost always means supporting rebels more than once as it basically never works out the first time. However personally I was always interested in how exactly the +rebel support efficiency bonuses affects the odds of getting a rebellion to pop up. The bonus obviously makes it more likely for rebels to pop up when you support rebels but how much exactly? The math was beyond me and I don't know of any existing analyses on the matter. For those that don't know it's a rare modifier given by only 10 sources in all of the game accounting for NI, policies, decisions(none of which give it), idea groups, missions and events which is to say literally everything.
However having recently learned combinatorics I realized I can actually calculate the probability of getting a rebellion with or without bonuses now! So without further ado the odds of getting rebels to pop up by supporting rebels assuming unrest below 0 (less won't decrease the odds but more will increase them):
no bonuses, support once: ~8%
no bonuses, support twice: ~78%
no bonuses, support thrice ~99%
+25% rebel support efficiency, support once: ~22%
+25% rebel support efficiency support twice: ~95%
+50% rebel support efficiency, support once: ~42%
+50% rebel support efficiency, support twice: ~99%
+75% rebel support efficiency, support once: ~63%
+75% rebel support efficiency, support twice: ~99%
+100% rebel support efficiency, support once: ~79%
+100% rebel support efficiency, support twice: ~99%
+125% rebel support efficiency(the maximum for generic nations), support once: ~90%
+150% rebel support efficiency(the maximum with fitting bonuses), support once: ~96%
+175% rebel support efficiency(the maximum with both fitting mission and NI, impossible AFAIK), support once: ~99%
Also due note with unrest below 0 you need to chain the rebel supports so that the new one starts right after the previous one stops or the rebels will lose progress and the odds of getting a rebellion will decrease drastically. There are modifiers giving +20% or +30% rebel support efficiency, they give results similar to +25% so just round to the closest result.
It seems those modifiers are a pretty big deal if you're going to be supporting rebels, especially if you stack them! Hope someone gets good use out of this and does a fun rebel support run. Maybe I'll do one myself at some point!
... but that almost always means supporting rebels more than once as it basically never works out the first time. However personally I was always interested in how exactly the +rebel support efficiency bonuses affects the odds of getting a rebellion to pop up. The bonus obviously makes it more likely for rebels to pop up when you support rebels but how much exactly? The math was beyond me and I don't know of any existing analyses on the matter. For those that don't know it's a rare modifier given by only 10 sources in all of the game accounting for NI, policies, decisions(none of which give it), idea groups, missions and events which is to say literally everything.
However having recently learned combinatorics I realized I can actually calculate the probability of getting a rebellion with or without bonuses now! So without further ado the odds of getting rebels to pop up by supporting rebels assuming unrest below 0 (less won't decrease the odds but more will increase them):
no bonuses, support once: ~8%
no bonuses, support twice: ~78%
no bonuses, support thrice ~99%
+25% rebel support efficiency, support once: ~22%
+25% rebel support efficiency support twice: ~95%
+50% rebel support efficiency, support once: ~42%
+50% rebel support efficiency, support twice: ~99%
+75% rebel support efficiency, support once: ~63%
+75% rebel support efficiency, support twice: ~99%
+100% rebel support efficiency, support once: ~79%
+100% rebel support efficiency, support twice: ~99%
+125% rebel support efficiency(the maximum for generic nations), support once: ~90%
+150% rebel support efficiency(the maximum with fitting bonuses), support once: ~96%
+175% rebel support efficiency(the maximum with both fitting mission and NI, impossible AFAIK), support once: ~99%
Also due note with unrest below 0 you need to chain the rebel supports so that the new one starts right after the previous one stops or the rebels will lose progress and the odds of getting a rebellion will decrease drastically. There are modifiers giving +20% or +30% rebel support efficiency, they give results similar to +25% so just round to the closest result.
It seems those modifiers are a pretty big deal if you're going to be supporting rebels, especially if you stack them! Hope someone gets good use out of this and does a fun rebel support run. Maybe I'll do one myself at some point!
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