Amelia Earhart Event

[Stolen Rutters]

Classic and required:
pic

Haha! Yep, that sums it up.

The last I heard the leading theory was that she landed on an island that was near her exact flight path if knocked away from a storm and they found remains of a woman and debris. What happened to that story?

Where did this picture come from? What do top historians have to say? Anyone know?

EDIT: What do you all think of this: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...im-amelia-earhart-was-taken-prisoner-by-japan

The source picture from the online image of this book has much better color scale than the pic from the earlier guardian article. It's like the photo from post number three was photocopied with a black and white copier, which tends to remove gray scale. The person who is supposed to be Noonan is too tanned, has more hair than Noonan (Noonan's receding hairline is much further advanced in '37), and Noonan's ears stick out from his head, whereas the man in the image has ears close to his head. The sitting person looks male and his ears are too far back on his head to match a side profile of Earhart. You can see skin where roots for her sideburns are (burns start too far back). Plus in almost every pic that shows her hair she seems to wear it to protect her ears from the sun.

tl;dr No match.

Plus the image is in a book published in '35, an image that was apparently easy to find... if you knew Japanese.

edit - oops I said bangs, I meant burns. A person can change their cut, but can't move the roots.

 

[Louella]

i vaguely remember something that said the human brain has a tendency to do a lot of false positives when it comes to looking at things.
especially things that look like they might be a lion hiding in vegetation. evolutionary advantage is given to those whose brain goes "that's not some grass that looks a bit like a lion, that's a lion hiding in the grass!".

 

[Daelyn75]

Classic and required:

I don't mind a bit of the UFO thing so much as the reality shows that were on 20 hours a day. Neither of which belong on a freaking history channel!

I remember being excited for a history channel that was coming. This aint history.

 

[Baron Jukaga]

I don't mind a bit of the UFO thing so much as the reality shows that were on 20 hours a day. Neither of which belong on a freaking history channel!

I remember being excited for a history channel that was coming. This aint history.

Yeah it's a little out of date, the 2011-201X images would be Pawn Stars, American Pickers and other trash-related programming.

 

[Gamer_1745]

Here is this:

The 1935 use of the photo.

 

[Daelyn75]

Here is this:
View attachment 284145

The 1935 use of the photo.

Is anyone able to translate the writing there?

 

[Tisifoni12]

See the Tighar project website: https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/AEdescr1.html
And see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikumaroro

The island was settled about 18 months after Earhart and Noonan went missing. A failed project to set up a coconut plantation. Salvaged unpainted aeroplane skin materials; aluminium panels and Perspex were used in the construction of the settlement.

 

[Arkhis]

Is anyone able to translate the writing there?

My Japanese isn't what it used to be, but on the left it identifies the area of the picture: Yariito-shima Jiyabouri no minato, aka Yariito (Jaluit) island, port of Jiyabouri (Jabor).

Having too much difficulty identifying some of the kanji there, maybe someone more versed in Japanese can help.

 

[Atlantians]

Classic and required:

Yep.

 

[Atlantians]

Incidentally, this is a thorough refutation of the Ancient Aliens Crap:

 

[DorostheConquer]

"In the documentary, the newly discovered photograph is subjected to facial-recognition and other forensic testing. It is judged authentic, and likely to be that of Earhart and Noonan.

“When you see the analysis that’s been done, I think it leaves no doubt to the viewers,” Shawn Henry, a former executive assistant director for the FBI told NBC News.

It is claimed that the photo shows Earhart and Noonan on a dock in the Marshall Islands, with the Japanese ship, the Koshu, towing Earhart's plane in the background.

The photo was discovered by Les Kinney, a retired US treasury agent, who has spent years trying to unravel the mystery of the Earhart expedition.

He said the photo “clearly indicates that Earhart was captured by the Japanese”."


Why do people say conspiracy when I just hear about this information for the first time? That seems closed minded to me. Can you offer counter evidence to what has been presented here? Or is it just your word that it's tin foil hat stuff?

Well, the default for any radical new claim should be skepticism. That doesn't mean you cannot give a new claim a fair chance to be heard ("the Nazis were actually trying to save the world from invasion by Pleidianan bug people, you say? OK, let's hear your evidence."), just that you should assume it's bollocks and poke holes in it, until you find you can't.

And with that in mind, there are a few holes to poke right off the bat:

First, the photo is clearly not strong evidence of anything - it's blurry, it's old, it's low-resolution, and the person claimed to be Earhart? The only thing you can see is the back of her (his? looks like a man to me) head.

Second, the source - the History Channel - is highly suspect. THC is notorious for it's sloppy methodology and cavalier disregard for basic journalistic ethics. That doesn't disprove the claim, but "I heard it on a History Channel documentary" is the mass-media-equivalent of saying "I heard it from some drunk guy on a street corner".

Third, what "facial-recognition" techniques were used? We need specifics, or (forgive the memeing) it didn't happen. Most facial recognition techniques are pretty shoddy, and software (if indeed it was software) inherently suffers from the GIGO principle. Without knowing which techniques or what computer software was used, we cannot reliably judge the accuracy of the conclusion.

Fourth, the article I read on this includes the following:
http://dl.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/1223403/99
... which, according to the Japanese National Digital Library, was taken in 1935 - two years before Earhart disappeared. So, there's your evidence. Tin-foil hat, confirmed.

 

[Daelyn75]

Well, the default for any radical new claim should be skepticism. That doesn't mean you cannot give a new claim a fair chance to be heard ("the Nazis were actually trying to save the world from invasion by Pleidianan bug people, you say? OK, let's hear your evidence."), just that you should assume it's bollocks and poke holes in it, until you find you can't.

And with that in mind, there are a few holes to poke right off the bat:

First, the photo is clearly not strong evidence of anything - it's blurry, it's old, it's low-resolution, and the person claimed to be Earhart? The only thing you can see is the back of her (his? looks like a man to me) head.

Second, the source - the History Channel - is highly suspect. THC is notorious for it's sloppy methodology and cavalier disregard for basic journalistic ethics. That doesn't disprove the claim, but "I heard it on a History Channel documentary" is the mass-media-equivalent of saying "I heard it from some drunk guy on a street corner".

Third, what "facial-recognition" techniques were used? We need specifics, or (forgive the memeing) it didn't happen. Most facial recognition techniques are pretty shoddy, and software (if indeed it was software) inherently suffers from the GIGO principle. Without knowing which techniques or what computer software was used, we cannot reliably judge the accuracy of the conclusion.

Fourth, the article I read on this includes the following:
http://dl.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/1223403/99
... which, according to the Japanese National Digital Library, was taken in 1935 - two years before Earhart disappeared. So, there's your evidence. Tin-foil hat, confirmed.

I agree with everything said here. Did the youtube video that I embedded not come through for everyone? Its only 6 minutes long or so, but I keep seeing posts that came after it like it wasn't there.

The picture comparison is from someone that worked in FBI forensics for 30 years. That to me is what gave me credibility about the photo analysis. I also don't keep up with cable TV much. Netflix, Blue-ray videos, and the internet is where 95% of my watching goes to. I became pretty disgusted with the History Channel because of it's content about 8 years back, but I wasn't aware that they put out their own content and that it has been questionable.

Regardless, as new information continues to come in on this story that people are posting, I continue to put it all together. However, I wish that someone, anyone would watch the video and report what they think of it. It's on page 2 or 3.

 

[Ksyr]

I agree with everything said here. Did the youtube video that I embedded not come through for everyone? Its only 6 minutes long or so, but I keep seeing posts that came after it like it wasn't there.

The picture comparison is from someone that worked in FBI forensics for 30 years. That to me is what gave me credibility about the photo analysis. I also don't keep up with cable TV much. Netflix, Blue-ray videos, and the internet is where 95% of my watching goes to. I became pretty disgusted with the History Channel because of it's content about 8 years back, but I wasn't aware that they put out their own content and that it has been questionable.

Regardless, as new information continues to come in on this story that people are posting, I continue to put it all together. However, I wish that someone, anyone would watch the video and report what they think of it. It's on page 2 or 3.

I watched it. I'm an analyst in a different field of work so people recognition is not my expertise, but I do have some insight into analysing stuff in general. My primary concern with what was shown in the video is that you can never have a better output than the input. No matter how good the analysis tools are you will never get good quality from poor input parameters.

I am pretty sure that if they had compared the photo with that of one million other men with a nose and a high hairline they would have gotten a lot of matches. And the person sitting in the background could be compared to a million slim men or women and gotten a million matches.

It's like a bank robber fleeing in a white car and the police stopping a random white car 5 years later and arresting the driver because it "have to be him" because he was driving a white car.

 

[Daelyn75]

I watched it. I'm an analyst in a different field of work so people recognition is not my expertise, but I do have some insight into analysing stuff in general. My primary concern with what was shown in the video is that you can never have a better output than the input. No matter how good the analysis tools are you will never get good quality from poor input parameters.

I am pretty sure that if they had compared the photo with that of one million other men with a nose and a high hairline they would have gotten a lot of matches. And the person sitting in the background could be compared to a million slim men or women and gotten a million matches.

It's like a bank robber fleeing in a white car and the police stopping a random white car 5 years later and arresting the driver because it "have to be him" because he was driving a white car.

I don't doubt any of that. I'd have to watch the entire History Channel video to get all the points that were made in this photo plus the other evidence surrounding it.

Such as -

• I think someone posted that it was found in a file that was dated to 1940, yet the analyst believed it was from 1937 for some reason.
  
• The missing 160-page intelligence report that was somehow attached to this photo.
• Three matches (best as can be with the quality) within the photo of Noonan, Earhart, and something that matched their airplane being towed by the very same Japanese warship that was out searching for them, that would be on one if not the nearest Japanese military base in the area they were believed to have gone missing.
  
• The point made by a Marine commander in 1971 that made it seem like it was common knowledge within the military at the time that she was taken by the Japanese, and died in Saipan.

A have not disagreed with the criticism of the photo. It is old black and white with little detail. However, as much as we can say it can be a million or more other people, we cannot also say that it cannot possibly be them and their airplane and within the proper time, and within a Naval Intelligence file.

Skepticism of new theories is healthy, but ignoring new evidence isn't. I am not saying that this is 100% guaranteed to be them in the photo, but I am saying it is likely. The forensic analyst claimed it is very likely to be them.

In my opinion, that out of the three possibilities -

• Earhart and her navigator crashed into the sea and were never found.
• Earhart and her navigator crashed on a deserted island and died there after days, weeks, or months of trying to survive.
• Earhart and her navigator crashed at sea, or on some island and were found by a Japanese warship, taken prisoner, and their aircraft towed.

The last one, being taken prisoner by the Japanese was just as likely as the other two. In this case because of the forensic work on the photo and other evidence, that in my opinion stands out as the most likely outcome for Earhart.

However, like I have said, I would not stake my life on it, nor would I say anything more than I think it is the most likely thing to have happened to them. As for the photo being dated to 1935, and has Japanese writing on it, well I cannot say. If it is true then it throws out the photo, but is it true?

 

[ltccone]

I don't doubt any of that. I'd have to watch the entire History Channel video to get all the points that were made in this photo plus the other evidence surrounding it.

Such as -

• I think someone posted that it was found in a file that was dated to 1940, yet the analyst believed it was from 1937 for some reason.
  
• The missing 160-page intelligence report that was somehow attached to this photo.
• Three matches (best as can be with the quality) within the photo of Noonan, Earhart, and something that matched their airplane being towed by the very same Japanese warship that was out searching for them, that would be on one if not the nearest Japanese military base in the area they were believed to have gone missing.
  
• The point made by a Marine commander in 1971 that made it seem like it was common knowledge within the military at the time that she was taken by the Japanese, and died in Saipan.

A have not disagreed with the criticism of the photo. It is old black and white with little detail. However, as much as we can say it can be a million or more other people, we cannot also say that it cannot possibly be them and their airplane and within the proper time, and within a Naval Intelligence file.

Skepticism of new theories is healthy, but ignoring new evidence isn't. I am not saying that this is 100% guaranteed to be them in the photo, but I am saying it is likely. The forensic analyst claimed it is very likely to be them.

In my opinion, that out of the three possibilities -

• Earhart and her navigator crashed into the sea and were never found.
• Earhart and her navigator crashed on a deserted island and died there after days, weeks, or months of trying to survive.
• Earhart and her navigator crashed at sea, or on some island and were found by a Japanese warship, taken prisoner, and their aircraft towed.

The last one, being taken prisoner by the Japanese was just as likely as the other two. In this case, because of the forensic work on the photo and other evidence that in my opinion stands out as the most likely outcome for Earhart.

However, like I have said, I would not stake my life on it, nor would I say anything more than I think it is the most likely thing to have happened to them. As for the photo being dated to 1935, and has Japanese writing on it, well I cannot say. If it is true then it throws out the photo, but is it true?

The picture in question was found in a Japanese book from 1935.

 

[Daelyn75]

The picture in question was found in a Japanese book from 1935.

Do you have a link for it?

 

[PnGuin]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/12/asia/amelia-earhart-photo-japan/index.html

 

[Daelyn75]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/12/asia/amelia-earhart-photo-japan/index.html

Alright. Let's hear what the History Channel has to say. They are aware of this information presented in the article.

 

[PnGuin]

I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Baron Jukaga]

Alright. Let's hear what the History Channel has to say. They are aware of this information presented in the article.

I predict a wall of silence followed by a weekend of reruns of 2012 apocalypse shows.