I'd be more inclined to take recovery buffs if morale & reinforcement ticked daily; as-is the outcome is often determined by whether or not you get an end-of-month tick, not by how much the tick is.
You need to learn to flee battles at such a time to get said ticks. You should very rarely allow your armies to shatter and flee across the entire land. A strategic retreat, near month's end, into better territory (for -0.5 warscore) benefits greatly from improved moral recovery.