Alternative German strategy

[Slan]

In my latest HPP test as Germany (I wanted to test if I can research enough techs to start building the Graf Zeppelin in December '39), I got the opportunity to stage a coup d'état in France. Unfortunately it failed and I was discovered, and they thought they can't allow that to go unpunished. That wouldn't have been so much of a problem as it was already mid-39, so the war would have started soon anyway. I was prepared enough alredy.

But Poland was still uninvolved, so I decided to DoW them manually. Then I realized that I didn't do the M-R Pact yet, and attacking Poland will provoke the Soviets... I guess I started to kinda panick, and made a pre-emptive DoW on the Soviets... They surely are not yet prepared to face me, being in the middle of the Purge and everything...

My offensive started out rather well, but they were starting to push me back during the winter. On Christmas, '39, I had about 90 Divisions on the Eastern Front, including HQs. (Every unit is handled by the AI, as this game was started as a test...) The Western Front has about 115 Divisions, HQs included but the forces of allies not included. That front was going pretty well. The Maginot Line (or rather the Sigfried Line) held, and all of Southern France already via Italian soil (still, most of it is under German occupation, because the AI sent my forces through Italy).

So I started to wonder. First of all, let's assume that the Soviets do offer some resistence, unlike vanilla. Would it be a viable strategy to simply hold the line in the West (preferably after taking out Denmark, making the coast needed to be defended much shorter) and going for the Soviets first, right in the spring of '40?

I need to adapt the strategy to vanilla I guess, this being the vanilla forum So there's the possibility of Belgium and the Netherlands joining the Allies unprovoked. (Luxemburg can also join but that's not a threat.) Belgium adds two porvinces' worth of front while the Netherlands adds another 8 provinces. Now if we don't want to attack in the West at all, then we won't need to have more than say 2-3 Divisions on every province of the front.

The Southern half of the border with France is behind a river, and the forts there can be safely built up to say level 5, which would be enough to only need 2 divisions at most. That's 10 Divisions, another 8-12 in the Northern half, and another 15-20 on the Benelux border. If Denmark is secured, there are only 3 ports where you might expect an Allied invasion, which should be covered by another 3-6 Divisions. That's 45-50 Divisions at most, assuming the Italians can hold their share of the line (provided they are involved at all!)

By that time, my AI-led Germany had more than 150 Divisions' worth of units, so I assume that if I actually led the nation, I could have at least that much. (And maybe some of that would have been Garrisons for port- and behind-the-river-fortress-duty.) That leaves about 100 actual fighting Divisions for the Soviet front.

The Soviet-German border after Poland is defeated has about 17 provinces in vanilla (if I remember correctly, that is). That would mean 5 Divisions in every province, ie. a full Corps, plus another three full mobile Corps.

Again, assuming the Soviets actually put up a fight, I sill like these odds. What do you think?


P.s.: Please not that this is purely Single Player. Obviously I wouldn't want to wage a two-front war against human players...

 

[unmerged(34917)]

Quite a new approach, all out war against the SU and the Allies at once. Atleast the SU is caught so unawares with its pants down, that you probably have a very good chance to take it out. You just have to focus as much assets as possible against it.

 

[Slan]

The situation I described above went downhill from then on... By the spring of '40, I've completely ran out of manpower and the front returned to the Polish-Soviet border, but that is because I'm currently testing our new manpower-system, so it probably has nothing to do with the strategy itself

 

[Cybvep]

How about getting NAPs with France and UK just before late Anschluss (e.g. 1939), then speed-up to get the Czechs (or even forget them at all) and attack Poland and the Soviets ASAP (in 1939)? You should inflict enough casualties to the Soviets before the NAPs with the Allies expires in order to enable yourself the option to redeploy some troops from eastern to the western front.

No IC-whoring, no navy etc. Just troop buildup. You can deal with the Allies after the BP.

 

[Slan]

Only would work if the Western Allies accept a NAP. Would they?

 

[unmerged(34917)]

In 39/40 if you dont declare war on Low Countries, then in the West only the Siegfried line needs good defense. Everything else can be thrown against the Russians. I think it could work, but it is risky. But the SU is still very weak at that point and hopelessly outclassed.

 

[Cybvep]

Only would work if the Western Allies accept a NAP. Would they?

No idea. There is an alternative to it, though.

You could influence Belgium and Netherlands from the start and keep them from joining the Allies. The only place you would need to guard would be the Maginot Line, which should be manageable with some basic troops. Maybe a couple of "emergency" divisions stationed near the coasts would be good, too.

 

[unmerged(56084)]

The strategy of concentrating on Russia was actually considered before WW1. It would have actually worked, then. In 1939, after losing some 15 yrs under the effects of the treaty of Versailles, Ger did not have the military strength vs it's opponents as it posessed in 1914. Only the Luftwaffe could have been classified as being ready for war in '39. The SU, after about a year will morph into an unstoppable giant, unless it's army is cut to pieces in the early stages of Barbarossa. I fear the position you have placed yourself in, is ultimately untenable. You are left relying on one trump card...the incompetence of the ai as a strategist. Good luck.

 

[misterbean]

in my ICE game, Belgium and Netherlands never join the Allies, although they mobilize by spring '39. build the Westwall up to 5 forts in every province and put two divisions in all of them. Belgium/Netherlands requires 9 divs, Denmark about 2 full inf corps to take out in no time (can do it while fighting in Poland). this has always been enough to keep the Allies form trying anything apart from Strat bombing. So 18+9+10=37 inf divisions. everything else can be used in the East.

 

[unmerged(56084)]

in my ICE game, Belgium and Netherlands never join the Allies, although they mobilize by spring '39. build the Westwall up to 5 forts in every province and put two divisions in all of them. Belgium/Netherlands requires 9 divs, Denmark about 2 full inf corps to take out in no time (can do it while fighting in Poland). this has always been enough to keep the Allies form trying anything apart from Strat bombing. So 18+9+10=37 inf divisions. everything else can be used in the East.

I always build up the seigfried line forts to atleast level 5, and the ai never attacks. However, he has opened another front in Italy, so he has to monitor that situation. Additionally, with Italy in the war so early, it will face the disasterous situation of facing the combined Fra/RN fleet in the Med. Once the Ita fleet goes....so goes africa....then S. Ita.....

 

[Slan]

Actually, the French started the war via event, so the rest of the Allies were not involved at first, but the rest of the Axis was. Then when I DoWed Poland, the rest of the Allies joined the war against Germany, but not the rest of the Axis. Also, my war against the Soviets were only my war (although I thought I started that one as a normal war...) The French didn't hurt the Italian Navy all that much. Then again, as I said, I've completely ran out of manpower by the spring of '40, so there's no point in assessing that exact situation. The question is whether it is possible to take out the Soviets first before going for the West.

Oh, what the heck. I will make an AAR from that (Using vanilla, no less!)

 

[aquilarossa]

The situation I described above went downhill from then on... By the spring of '40, I've completely ran out of manpower and the front returned to the Polish-Soviet border, but that is because I'm currently testing our new manpower-system, so it probably has nothing to do with the strategy itself

Germany is running out of manpower very easily ever since 2.03c, I wonder if they nerfedit with that patch? Sometimes if France manages to hold out for a few months, Germany runs out of MP and things end up in stalemate with no Barbarossa due to France having to fall first. Surely fixing the reasons why the Soviet Union crumbles so easily is preferable to nerfing German MP?

 

[unmerged(56084)]

Actually, the French started the war via event, so the rest of the Allies were not involved at first, but the rest of the Axis was. Then when I DoWed Poland, the rest of the Allies joined the war against Germany, but not the rest of the Axis. Also, my war against the Soviets were only my war (although I thought I started that one as a normal war...) The French didn't hurt the Italian Navy all that much. Then again, as I said, I've completely ran out of manpower by the spring of '40, so there's no point in assessing that exact situation. The question is whether it is possible to take out the Soviets first before going for the West.

Oh, what the heck. I will make an AAR from that (Using vanilla, no less!)

1)Yes Ger can defeat the SU first, but not while at war with an intact western alliance at the same time, and not in '39 (at least it would be too risky)
2)The Ita fleet, in your game, is on borrowed time. Just watch the sunk ship report, you'll start to see the effects. The RM will probably give a good account of itself, and be gone within a year.

 

[unmerged(56084)]

If you insist on doing this in '39, then I suggest the following...
1)Trade with the allies to +200
2)Take Austria, but skip the Czech events, and use trade to pull Czech in your Dip direction. Do not take Memel, also.
3)Do not actively use your spies in the UK/Fra, but build up the Siegfried line forts, manned by 2 div (3xinf)/province. Ensure the neutrality of Lux/Holland/Belg/Den/Yug. Have a small army to defend your coastal region. Fortify your ports.
4)Keep Ita close but out of the axis, do invite Japan in about a month before you attack the SU
5)Invade Poland, and pray that you have enough good will in the west that the allies will not DOW you when your next action is to attack the SU. In '39 the Red Army is not prepared.

 

[unmerged(230810)]

2)The Ita fleet, in your game, is on borrowed time. Just watch the sunk ship report, you'll start to see the effects. The RM will probably give a good account of itself, and be gone within a year.

Ain't that the truth. My first 'real' game was as Italy. I spent hours and hours carefully building up my fleet and preparing for war with the Brits. I thought my beautiful battleships with the benefit of land-based air would be able to clear out the Med since I intended to actually fight, unlike the historical Italians.

Yeah, about six months later what was left of my fleet was cowering in Venice. The Royal Navy is just a monster.

 

[Slan]

1)Yes Ger can defeat the SU first, but not while at war with an intact western alliance at the same time, and not in '39 (at least it would be too risky)

We'll see about that

2)The Ita fleet, in your game, is on borrowed time. Just watch the sunk ship report, you'll start to see the effects. The RM will probably give a good account of itself, and be gone within a year.

Again, Italy was not at war with the UK. Circumstances were rather sepcial.

If you insist on doing this in '39, then I suggest the following...
1)Trade with the allies to +200
2)Take Austria, but skip the Czech events, and use trade to pull Czech in your Dip direction. Do not take Memel, also.
3)Do not actively use your spies in the UK/Fra, but build up the Siegfried line forts, manned by 2 div (3xinf)/province. Ensure the neutrality of Lux/Holland/Belg/Den/Yug. Have a small army to defend your coastal region. Fortify your ports.
4)Keep Ita close but out of the axis, do invite Japan in about a month before you attack the SU
5)Invade Poland, and pray that you have enough good will in the west that the allies will not DOW you when your next action is to attack the SU. In '39 the Red Army is not prepared.

The entire point of this experiment would be to be at war with both factions at the same time and win! Although keeping the minors (and the US...) neutral would be a very important element of this strategy.

 

[unmerged(56084)]

Slan, then make sure your Siegfried line is solid, and keep those smaller nations neutral. This will help limit the approach of allied bombers, and allow you to concentrate your air defence.
Hopefully, by '39, Japan will have China well in hand, this will allow it to become a proper threat to the SU, and act aggressively vs the western allies. Couple this with adding Australia to the list of countries to keep neutral. NZ usually joins the allies early, so I wouldn't bother there. Remember to have a plan to defend your N. Coast.

If Japan does well vs the allies, watch the sunk ship report, then at a time you deem to be appropriate, invite Italy in. You'll catch the allies navies while they are heavily engaged vs the IJN, and will expose their extended supply lines. Let us know how it goes.

 

[Slan]

@OKH: Thanks for the advice, although I might leave Italy out of the war until I'm done with the Soviets. I'm not sure when I will be able to start this experiment, but I will be sure to post the results. Most likely in the form of an AAR

 

[unmerged(56084)]

@OKH: Thanks for the advice, although I might leave Italy out of the war until I'm done with the Soviets. I'm not sure when I will be able to start this experiment, but I will be sure to post the results. Most likely in the form of an AAR

I look forward to following this. As I said, let the sunk ship report be your guide as to what to do with Ita. If UK/Fra have been significantly weakened vs the IJN, go for it. The flip side is that you don't want Japan forever exposed to the combined allied fleet. It is, however, the most powerful axis fleet, and has the best chance of defeating the allies.

When you do invite Ita in, be prepared to send intx3 to Sicily. Have them AS over Malta 24/7. You will save alot of axis ships by doing this.

 

[unmerged(181758)]

The strategy of concentrating on Russia was actually considered before WW1. It would have actually worked, then. In 1939, after losing some 15 yrs under the effects of the treaty of Versailles, Ger did not have the military strength vs it's opponents as it possessed in 1914. Only the Luftwaffe could have been classified as being ready for war in '39. The SU, after about a year will morph into an unstoppable giant, unless it's army is cut to pieces in the early stages of Barbarossa. I fear the position you have placed yourself in, is ultimately untenable. You are left relying on one trump card...the incompetence of the ai as a strategist. Good luck.

Are you sure, OKH? In the opinion of whom Schlieffen, von Moltke, Hindenburg, Ludendorff, Hoffman, Mackensen or even perhaps Prittwitz? Please tell.

AFAIK the 1914 plan (Schlieffen's modified by von Moltke) was always directed towards knocking out the closer faster French so they could then concentrate upon dealing with the slower to mobilise Russian steamroller. The two problems were that the moment against France didn't go as planned and failed to knock her army off and Russia mobilised faster and attacked sooner than assumed. I have never heard of there being an Imperial German plan to go the other way. I think most would expect such a strategy not to have worked for Imperial Germany not even as early as post 1871 nor for Nazi Germany either, however I think it actually could have considering the French (and Allies) were happy enough to sit behind the Maginot Line while the entire Polish, later the Danish & Norwegian Armed Forces were crushed by an unhindered Wehrmacht. (The French overestimated the strength of the Polish armed forces as did the Poles themselves, all the same their best moment was early September 1939, but all the French dare do was to launch a demonstrative sortie.)

I think that Hitler possibly could have attacked Russia in 1940 instead of the West like how Slan is trying, passed the invasion of Poland off as a stepping stone to that end while still trying to negotiate a peace deal and probably had at least similar results as Barbarossa did in 1941 while the French sat behind the Maginot line for another year all while Britain sent over pesky ineffectual Strategic bombers...it wouldn't surprise me if that could be done in HOI3 as an alternative German strategy sussessfully by a player, not to mention Herr Hitler too.