Alternate event chains (for when the main one gets broken...)

[Flayer92]

Remember getting into some sort of dicussion about this long ago on an HOI3 thread I can no longer find.

Basically, it involved AI Czechoslovakia sometimes refusing to concede its territory and going to war against Germany after a certain update to the game. The argument was between some players, who enjoyed the surprise and uncertainty factor and ahistorical possibilities, and others, whose main concern was that this would break the whole subsequent event chain (and the diplomacy system, since the Allies would be considered the aggressor, and the war goals, since Germany, now the one 'attacked,' would not set The Fall of France goal, etc.)

I brought up a proposal in that thread for an alternative chain of events that would serve as a contingency plan in that scenario. If I recall, it went something like this:

- Czechoslovakia under AI management will occasionally (5-10% of the time) refuse to give up the Sudetenland

- Germany will DOW Czechoslovakia. Czechoslovakia will NOT immediately join Allies, nor will Allies immediately join the war.

- Short phase (two weeks, three weeks, a month?) of Germany v. Czechoslovakia one-on-one war will ensue.

- If Germany defeats Czechoslovakia in that time, it will force the terms of the concessions onto Czechoslovakia: Germany gets Sudetenland and Bohemia-Moravia (cores on both), Hungary gets its cores, puppet Slovakia released. The Allies will guarantee Poland and events will proceed as usual.

- If Czechoslovakia manages to hold out until the end of that first period, the UK and France will get a decision (Stand By Czechoslovakia) that allows them to enter the war and Czechoslovakia to become a member of the Allies. Germany, as a penalty for its failure to blitzkrieg-conquer Czechoslovakia, will get cores on Sudetenland only and not on Bohemia-Moravia as a whole.
.
- If this second line of events follows, and then Czechoslovakia does fall, Poland will get a decision (We're Next?)

- Option one: Poland will join the Allies and the war against Germany. Things will proceed fairly normally from here.

- Option two: Poland concedes the Danzig Corridor to Germany and stays out of the Allies as an appeasement in exchange for a non-aggression pact with Germany

- If Poland takes the second option, the Soviet Union gets its own seperate war option which it will use to declare war on Poland while the Allies and Germany are tied up with each other, in which case it will conquer Eastern Poland and puppet the remainder.

- When the USSR attacks Poland if the Poles took the second option, the Allies will get a decision (which the AI will refuse but a player can take) to declare war on the Soviet Union in defense of Poland.

- Germany will also get a decision if the USSR takes Poland: declare a two-front war against the Soviets or bide their time.

- The German AI will only rarely take the two front war option. If it does, Poland will become an Axis member. Germany and Poland will fight a limited war with the Soviet Union: the Soviets will get something like a three month window to force a surrender on Poland

- If the Soviets force a Polish surrender, Germany gets an option of fighting on alone, or conceding Poland to the Soviets in a peace (the German AI would take the peace option).

- If Poland has still held out after those three months with German help, the Soviets will instead sue for peace, giving up all claims on Poland and signing a non-aggression pact with Poland and Germany (a Soviet player will get an event informing them that they face a coup from the demoralized army and will take massive penalties if they choose not to offer this peace). If the Soviet player chooses to fight on instead of offering terms, Finland and Romania will also get events that let them join the Axis and the war against the USSR immediately.

- Germany will then get the option to demand a territorial concession (of western Polish territories like Poznan and Silesia) from Poland after the Soviet ceasefire, to boot them from the Axis and betray them with a DOW and total conquest (German AI liable to do either of these options), or to leave the Poles at peace as a German ally (option for the player). Polish AI will concede the territories, Polish player could refuse, in which case Germany proceeds to option two, boots them from Axis, and declares war. Poland if booted from Axis and DOW'd becomes an Allied member.

- If, on the other hand, the Germans chose the bide their time option, the Poles will fight the Soviets alone and most likely get conquered. Germany will get a CB later after France falls to go war with the Soviets later.

- Final possibility: if both the Allies and Germany were to DOW the Soviet Union in defense of Poland, Soviet Union gets a special option to back down immediately and peace out with all, which the AI will take in lieu of fighting the Allies and Germany (comes with a big dissent penalty though). Poland then gets a decision (Whose Side Are We On?) - they can choose to join the Allies (thrusting them into war with Germany) or the Axis (at the cost of conceding those western territories like Poznan and Silesia). German AI will accept Poland's offer of submission; German player can refuse it and DOW them, forcing Poland into the Allies.





While there may be some kinks to work out in the chain of events I've proposed above, I believe in general it's a good outline to follow. Czechoslovakia and Poland are given options to seriously influence the outcome of events if their resistance proves strong enough, while a skilled German player could defeat Czechoslovakia quick enough to force things back onto the normal track of events. The Soviet Union and Germany could get into an early war with one another, but it's set up as a limited one that either one or the other will back out of to allow the main Eastern Front war to take place later. There are some very interesting choices to be made, particularly for Germany - do you bet on being able to hold the Soviets out of Poland for three months while fighting the Allies at the same time, or do you play it safe and go for revenge later?

It allows for ahistorical decisions (like Czechoslovakia standing up) to take place without ruining the game.

I think it'd be worth it to brainstorm some more alternative event chains for other ahistorical contingencies as well - for example, one that sets up a grand conflict between the Allies and the Soviet Union if the Allies reverse the Fall of France and instead defeat Germany early on.

Thoughts?

 

[SpermCube]

You forgot to mention that the annexation of Czechoslovakia goes in 2 phases, one of which was accepted by the European powers minus the USSR. Most of the border fortifications were in the Sudeten part of Czechoslovakia. So Czechoslovakia was even less likely to fight after the second half of the annexation.

So that leaves Czechoslovakia 2 occasions to stand up and fight, thus making another event line (which is already of sizably proportion including all your suggestions.

- Czechoslovakia under AI management will occasionally (5-10% of the time) refuse to give up the Sudetenland

I'd rather have Czechoslovakia defend itself if it they think there is a chance of winning, if Germany has less units at the border than Czechoslovakia does it should stand up for itself. Having an arbitrary 5-10% makes no sense.

On a pro side of things, having Germany and Czechoslovakia fight a war might play in well into the experience sytem that will be implemented, so it might actually profit Germany.

 

[Riza]

Really love that idea Flayer, +1 from me.

 

[Denkt]

Im not sure that the big event chains will be in as we got the new national focus system which will likely in some way drive the game so you may see much earlier or later wars and maybe even different belligerents which will make it hard to know how the game will play out.

 

[wingo]

Yes, tie it to the number of divisions on border (and maybe total airforce?), so Germany is forced to build units if it wants to intimidate Czechoslovakia into submission (and by intimidate I mean Czechoslovakia should not bow before 43 german divisions if it has 42). Another thing, independent puppet Slovakia makes little sense in this scenario, its creation was the direct consequence of previous events - a way to secure guarantee against Hungarians after Czechoslovakia fate was already sealed. Before Munich, Slovaks had disagreements about balance of power within republic, but complete independence was never a goal. After Munich, resisting becomes practically futile, so 0% chance of refusing for the AI if UK/France does not guarantee the borders. And no free cores for Germany, why should they get everything for free? Sudetenland at most, but only if Munich was successful.

Also, make it possible for France to intervene each German act in violation of Versailles treaty, because in HOI2&3 when playing France I could not go to war over remilitarization, anschluss or Munich, which makes no sense. Make it anull the alliance with UK (if they do not agree), maybe generate some/lots of dissent, but make it possible.

 

[scroggin]

Hey OP that's a really good Idea, it would add a lot of interest to the game. There would need to be a lot of work to ensure reasonable game balance whatever options the AI takes. If a human wants to screw with game balance that's fine. But I don't want the AI's choices making a game really easy, or impossible.

 

[Moppy771]

+1 Really love these ideas.

 

[DPKdebator]

Great ideas!

 

[unmerged(33694)]

ahistorical association strikes back

 

[Gorganslayer]

i really wish i can go to war you know when i want when it was plausible such as with czechslovakia, and reoccupation of rhineland that stuff, also would be great if in some cases it would be possible for italy to stick by austria and not become friendly with germany, meaning you get a germany vs italy/austria (would be cool what if)

 

[Kovax]

I'd support some kind of "alternative paths" like described by the OP, but the decisions should be dependent upon the situation, plus or minus a random factor, rather then either being "hard coded" to happen every time that some condition is met, or else being totally random no matter what the conditions are at the time. As long as there's some random variation that changes in probability based on various aspects of the situation, I'm happy with it.

When the player knows that "if I do this, then that will happen", then they can game the system and pull everything intended as a reserve and throw it into the fight with no fear of surprises; you play to beat "the game", not the other countries. When it's totally random, then there's nothing you as a player can do to affect it, and you're at the mercy of a RNG, and it's tempting to simply reload until you get the desired result, because there's no sense of challenge in trying to "beat" a RNG. If the player's actions change the probability, then you've got an effect on the situation, but it's still not "guaranteed". You need to hedge your bets with realistic use of reserves and some common sense, thanks to a measure of uncertainty like what the real leaders had to deal with. At that point, it becomes a "historical strategy game".

The totally sandbox mess that HOI3 had upon initial release had enormous potential, but lacked historical restraints, and therefore did in no way represent a realistic political simulation (Japan should NOT attempt to launch an amphibious invasion of Finland under any plausible circumstances I can think of, and COULD not have done so without access to a port or base within range - and "over the pole" doesn't count). The "on rails" system of heavily scripted events which replaced it, which triggered on certain dates regardless of the situation, or where events were triggered unfailingly by a single unwavering variable, were equally unrepresentative of the real situation, and became a "metagame" in and of themselves. In short, you HAD to "game the system", because the game didn't work otherwise.

The variable kickoff date of the SCW was one of the high points, in my opinion, but was still fairly simplistic since it still didn't take other issues of foreign influences or relations into account (doesn't matter how friendly or unfriendly Spain is to SU, GER, or ITA, or if any of them are fueling unrest or funding political support). What I'm hoping for is some rational median point between the "silly sandbox" and the "set on rails" versions of the previous game, without the improbable or outright impossible events and situations that made it a frustrating experience. Obviously, that takes far more involved scripts, but the alternatives so far have been either strange and ridiculous random behavior or else an inflexible system that breaks whenever the player does something outside the box.

 

[Flayer92]

I'd acknowledge the several posters it so far that it would be good to have situational factors weigh in on the AI's decision making. I do, however, believe in having an element of randomness as well for the sake of unpredictability. A German player shouldn't be able to compare his division count to Czechoslovakia's and know whether or they'll back down or not. He should be able to guess though - so I accept an argument for weighted randomness. For example, Czechoslovakia might take the gamble only 1-10% of the time if the Germans outnumber them really badly, but up to something like 40-50% of the time if the odds are more even. I'm making those numbers up off the top of my head, but you get the idea. It shouldn't be flip of a coin and the in-game situation should have an effect, but the player still shouldn't be 100% certain of outcomes. Part of the skill of the game would involve being ready to deal with surprises, something real leaders are tested on all the time.

Where this gets interesting is the player's choices actually having major effects on the development of the war. A player who chooses to go for Plan Z and build a big German navy at the expense of his army would thus be more likely to trigger a Czechoslovakian resistance.

This is not the only the alternate chain of events I had in mind, for from it. It was just the first that I was able to think through in full detail from start to finish. Here are others I have in mind:

- As I mentioned above, setting up a contingency for a big Allies vs. Comintern war to allow for a fun game if Germany gets defeated real early (pre-Barbarossa). All kinds of ways this could develop, honestly think it should be brainstormed by a group.

- As Gorganslayer mentioned above, possibility of a German-Italian war over Austria, either by Italian player's choice or if Italian AI gets sufficiently influenced by the Allies and ignored by Germany prior. If a human plays Austria, maybe they can bring the Italians in when they normally wouldn't by promising themselves as a puppet to Italy (only for someone who thinks it'd be fun to fight Germany, since they otherwise get choice to join Axis).

Germany fights a limited war vs. Austria and Italy. German victory condition would be conquest of Austria; Italy gets option at that point to peace out with Germany if it concedes South Tyrol along with. Italian goal to preserve Austria. France and perhaps UK get decisions that allow them to render indirect aid to Italy. If the war goes on long enough, France gets option to ultimatum Germany. Germany can give up on Austria, or France will join the war on Italy's side. Germany gets peace if it does give up, but for this humiliation the Army will launch a coup, overthrowing Hitler and restoring the monarchy by event. Germany will be stripped of Axis leadership and Italy rewarded with it; France gets decision to stick with Britain in the Allies, or to leave the Allies for a renewed Franco-Italian alliance. All sorts of interesting possibilities to carry the plot on from there.


Other ideas:

- Scripting for a Hungarian-Romanian war over Transylvania if neither of them are swayed into the Axis, with chances for outside players (Germany, Soviet Union, Bulgaria, Poland and France if they're still standing) to intervene in the outcome. Set up a conditions for a limited Hungarian objective of conquering Transylvania and not Romania whole - i.e. some outside power like Germany will warn the Hungarian player not to conquer whole Romania (and get their hands on the oil...)

- Alternate decisions for AI Japan to take, depending upon how its war in China goes and the strengths and diplomatic states of its rivals. Won't always Pearl Harbor, might start with a DOW on UK or on the Netherlands instead of one on USA. And possibly the Japanese-Soviet war escalating instead of reaching a ceasefire, or conditions for one or the other to break the NAP early.

- Communist China should have a path of decisions and events that allow it to grow, especially if/when the Soviet Union enters the East Asian theater.

- Conditions on which Spain will join the Axis, and perhaps even attempt a conquest of Portugal

- Conditions on which Germany and Italy, if victorious on other fronts, will DOW Switzerland and partition it between them (and Vichy France, if it's still around)

- Conditions for India to attempt a war of independence against the UK (if Japanese are overrunning them and the UK lets dissent/enemy spies get out of control)

- Event chain for Britain falling to Germany in a Sea Lion invasion. Germany gets to emplace a Fascist government which maintains a Vichy France-like neutrality. Allied leadership and British royalty transfers to Canada by event. Royal Navy and Air Force in Indian Ocean/Pacific get transferred and split between Australia, New Zealand, and a newly independent India (which gets all Indian army units). Canada seizes Newfoundland & Labrador, India seizes Pakistan & Burma, Australia and Japan seize British Pacific islands. Royal Navy in Atlantic divided between Canada and Fascist UK (larger share to Canada). Royal Navy in home ports divided; a portion scuttled, a portion remain with Fascist UK, final portion sails for Canada. Canada gets event to transfer Allied leadership to USA once USA joins Allies. Canada also gets event later to restore democratic government and the royals to Britain if/when it is liberated. British fascists will get event "Expelled from the Commonwealth" and take big hits to dissent and national unity from their lack of legitimacy. If these get out of hand they can be overthrown by event in popular uprising, in which case UK goes back to war with Germany and this time Germany can do a full occupation and conquest if they succeed in invading again. Ireland gets chance at reclaiming Northern Ireland in this course of events, as do Spain with Gibraltar and Argentina with the Malvinas, Japan will seize Hong Kong, Malaya, and Borneo much like it does Vichy French Indochina if it's not yet at war with the Allies.




Anyone have further ideas?

 

[Marcus]

Have a look in the old CORE and ICE mods and whatnot for a LOT of event chains.

 

[Clueless636]

I agree with everything your saying Flayer but id also throw in something to do with the Spanish Civil war (I think i mentioned in another thread but it works here.) Where the allies (Britain and France) start getting more deeply involved and end up fighting German and Italian forces.

 

[Kovax]

Relations should have as much to do with a lot of the events as Threat or Neutrality. If you're on great terms, trading much-needed resources and equipment, and generally working toward common goals, why would one of you attack the other? Irreconcilable ideological differences or treatment of one's own ethnic group as a minority in the other country should have an effect, but that effect should serve to sour Relations and/or cause Threat, rather than being a cause for war independent of Relations.

Germany and the Soviet Union made several deals relating to trade and political spheres of influence. Relations were still limited due to the ideological animosity (both Soviet and German propaganda occasionally refrained from actively vilifying their counterpart, but never went so far as to commend them for their actions), and Threat was increasing rapidly (both knew that a war between them was inevitable at some point), so if/when a conflict of interest occurred, the trade deals and cooperation were easily deemed expendable. Germany wouldn't have had such a determined focus on Poland or Czechoslovakia if not for the presence of a significant Germany minority in those countries, which made Relations problematical and caused Threat.

In general, the motivating forces which drove WWII should be the driving factors in the game, not as side bonuses to an otherwise scripted sequence of events which happened "because they were pre-destined". I hope to see a political aspect of the game which adequately mirrors that of Europe in 1936, not a caricature which follows the historical course regardless of the actual situation in the game. Finding a balance between forces which push toward WWII as we know it and other motivations and effects which could easily have altered the situation, while leaving the player at least mostly in control of which path the game takes, is going to take at least as much "artistry" and understanding of the actual underlying forces as it does technical programming skill. I wish Paradox luck at getting it right.

 

[Razer98K]

Basically, it involved AI Czechoslovakia sometimes refusing to concede its territory and going to war against Germany after a certain update to the game. The argument was between some players, who enjoyed the surprise and uncertainty factor and ahistorical possibilities, and others, whose main concern was that this would break the whole subsequent event chain (and the diplomacy system, since the Allies would be considered the aggressor, and the war goals, since Germany, now the one 'attacked,' would not set The Fall of France goal, etc.)

I brought up a proposal in that thread for an alternative chain of events that would serve as a contingency plan in that scenario. If I recall, it went something like this:

- Czechoslovakia under AI management will occasionally (5-10% of the time) refuse to give up the Sudetenland

- Germany will DOW Czechoslovakia. Czechoslovakia will NOT immediately join Allies, nor will Allies immediately join the war.

- Short phase (two weeks, three weeks, a month?) of Germany v. Czechoslovakia one-on-one war will ensue.

- If Germany defeats Czechoslovakia in that time, it will force the terms of the concessions onto Czechoslovakia: Germany gets Sudetenland and Bohemia-Moravia (cores on both), Hungary gets its cores, puppet Slovakia released. The Allies will guarantee Poland and events will proceed as usual.

- If Czechoslovakia manages to hold out until the end of that first period, the UK and France will get a decision (Stand By Czechoslovakia) that allows them to enter the war and Czechoslovakia to become a member of the Allies. Germany, as a penalty for its failure to blitzkrieg-conquer Czechoslovakia, will get cores on Sudetenland only and not on Bohemia-Moravia as a whole.
.
- If this second line of events follows, and then Czechoslovakia does fall, Poland will get a decision (We're Next?)

You forgot Soviet-Czech Pact.
"On May 16, 1935 the Czechoslovak-Soviet Treaty of Alliance was signed between the two states as the consequence of Soviet alliance with France (which was the Czechoslovak main ally). At the insistence of the Czechoslovak government, a protocol on the signing of the treaty stipulated that the treaty would go into force only if France gave assistance to the victim of aggression."

 

[Denkt]

Relations should have as much to do with a lot of the events as Threat or Neutrality. If you're on great terms, trading much-needed resources and equipment, and generally working toward common goals, why would one of you attack the other? Irreconcilable ideological differences or treatment of one's own ethnic group as a minority in the other country should have an effect, but that effect should serve to sour Relations and/or cause Threat, rather than being a cause for war independent of Relations.

Germany and the Soviet Union made several deals relating to trade and political spheres of influence. Relations were still limited due to the ideological animosity (both Soviet and German propaganda occasionally refrained from actively vilifying their counterpart, but never went so far as to commend them for their actions), and Threat was increasing rapidly (both knew that a war between them was inevitable at some point), so if/when a conflict of interest occurred, the trade deals and cooperation were easily deemed expendable. Germany wouldn't have had such a determined focus on Poland or Czechoslovakia if not for the presence of a significant Germany minority in those countries, which made Relations problematical and caused Threat.

In general, the motivating forces which drove WWII should be the driving factors in the game, not as side bonuses to an otherwise scripted sequence of events which happened "because they were pre-destined". I hope to see a political aspect of the game which adequately mirrors that of Europe in 1936, not a caricature which follows the historical course regardless of the actual situation in the game. Finding a balance between forces which push toward WWII as we know it and other motivations and effects which could easily have altered the situation, while leaving the player at least mostly in control of which path the game takes, is going to take at least as much "artistry" and understanding of the actual underlying forces as it does technical programming skill. I wish Paradox luck at getting it right.

This, no scripted event plz.
Sometimes the war in Europe should not even happen.

 

[Premu]

This, no scripted event plz.
Sometimes the war in Europe should not even happen.

This would be a pretty boring WWII game, though.

 

[Smileyou]

lol, all this makes me remember my game in hoi3, where as USSR i attacked Jap before they joined axis,in middle
of my attack jap goes to axis but germany abstains from DoWing me, but UK,France do instead..
so, i kick jap,occupy them,they live as gov. in axile in germany, i battle uk,france in the seas,
i attack and puppet baltic states, Germany now declares war on me(germany already in this time has hungary,slovakia,
yugoslavia,italy in axis)..

..and now here it starts to go off-rails.. as germany dows me, their threat level goes up and all of a sudden UK,France
dow Germany)lol.. and for some inexplicable reason Netherlands becomes communist and joins me(i had nothing to
do with it, also they weren't even socialist at the time,just flipped like a crazy person in the head and delivered me
a message i'm taking leadership and they'll stand by my side..)LOL.. then check this out, UK is guaranting independence
to Netherlands(before they even joined Comintern but it still holds), so Netherlands is safe from France,UK attack while
technically at war with them as they are with me, so, Netherlands attacks germany, france invades Germany, and as
i push from east in the baltic sea my carriers engage german cruisers and then a british carrier arrives, check this out;
its menage a trois.. we are all in battle, i'm afraid the comp will freeze any minute now cuz wtf right.. but battle goes
on, 3 parties fighting.. i swear to god i don't even want to begin to contemplate how mathematics work on this one,
but we were all duking it out somehow on everybody)) ..must have looked like the three stooges fight i guess. First
time in history, 3 sides wage war against each other at the same time.. L.O.L...

we need to have a AI that make a "who is a bigger threat" calculation and then just "join" the lesser evil.. so we
can avoid the insane proposition of 3 sides fighting each other on the same frontline.. its sooo exhausting)..

 

[DEY123]

I think it should not be scripted and for people who want a Historical start date should play either a sept 3, 1939 game (where Germany has started attacking Poland and France / UK have DOW'd Germany) or a Dec 8, 1941 post Pearl harbor scenario. The default scenario that the game opens should probably be the 1939 or 1941 scenario to make sure that war actually occurs for the average player. Of course a 1936 "sandbox" scenario should be able to be played with pre-existing relationships that would typically push the world to the standard WW2 set up but player intervention and other randomness could of course throw things off.

For the German annexation demands their should be events they can spend political points on that trigger the event for the other country. The other country can then accept or not with certain consequences that would typically force the AI to follow history but without guarantee that they get annexed or turn it down (liek the German request for the polish Corridor).