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Nicolas I

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All pilots from all countries overestimated their kills. Because it's difficult to estimate them in the heat of the battle. Also for propaganda reasons.

Countries did try to verify the numbers to have an accurate picture, but they were not keen to publicize it when they reviewed the numbers down.
 

Sic Domine

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What, you mean besides me citing historical statistics on this same page, 11 posts up? I'm talking about the post where I did a little breaking down the numbers to show just how implausible this crap is. You mean besides that I'm not going to go into the statistics?

If you just ignore any evidence presented by people who disagree with you, no one who disagrees with you has evidence! Well played!


Where are the total kills/claim tallies? Where are the comparisons to kill/claim tallies of other Nations?
Let's play by your game then. 13.09.1942, the RAF claims 2 DO 217 kills, both done by Beaufighters over Boston. Reality? There were no DO 217 even up in the air there. There weren't even any attacks on this city! There were no German airplanes there. What do we do now? The RAF has managed a 0% claim/kill rate. Wow, never trust RAF claims. They are complete and utter crap. I don't get why people find this so hard. The Anglos lied. They lied alot. etc. etc.

Here's the thing. Germans overclaimed. Soviets Overclaimed. The San Marinese and Andorrean overclaimed. However, if you compare claim/kill rates, the Germans were among the least subject to overclaim. They sometimes even UNDERCLAIMED.
 
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keynes2.0

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Let's play by your game then.


You say you are going to play my game but then you immediately start going into a completely different game. I was comparing macro level german kill claims. You go into nitpicking individual british kill claims. There's two things here:

1) It's a completely different kind of analysis. And it's not one that I have ever disagreed with. Every person who knows anything about this subject knows there was a lot of overclaims by all sides. My issue was simply the breathtaking scope of inaccuracy of German claims.
2) It's completely irrelevant to the point. You just seem to be acting out of some notion that I couldn't possibly believe that the allies would be wrong. What I suggest is that you dont project your failings onto me.
 
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BrotherSurplice

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Sadly there is no aircrew experience whatsoever and such ( I hope for a dlc at least, I´m disappointed with this aspect ).

If you choose - NF perhaps - this, you should get a hefty survival bonus ( while decreasing the tactical boni the air unit receives and a daily bonus to AirCombatExperience ( I assume they talk in this scenario to the aircraft designers and help to improve the birds ).
Damn, I hadn't realised that. Lack of experience for aircrews is quite an oversight I agree. Perhaps until such a feature is added (probably in some expensive DLC:rolleyes:) there could just be some sort of combat bonus to fighter planes if you decide to use an ace for training.
 

Sic Domine

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You say you are going to play my game but then you immediately start going into a completely different game. I was comparing macro level german kill claims. You go into nitpicking individual british kill claims. There's two things here:

1) It's a completely different kind of analysis. And it's not one that I have ever disagreed with. Every person who knows anything about this subject knows there was a lot of overclaims by all sides. My issue was simply the breathtaking scope of inaccuracy of German claims.
2) It's completely irrelevant to the point. You just seem to be acting out of some notion that I couldn't possibly believe that the allies would be wrong. What I suggest is that you dont project your failings onto me.



Ok, then let's compare macro kill claims.

If we assume that every Allied claim everyone was accurate(1 factual kill for 1 claim awarded) then we would have to make the Germans overstate their kill claims by more than 500%, in order to equal the top German ace to the top Allied ace. And even then, the overwhelming majority of spots taken in the aces list would still be taken by pilots of the 3rd Reich.

And that is without the fact that the statistics service of the 3rd Reich actually claims less planes destroyed overall by all causes than the allied powers lost
in Europe.
 
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keynes2.0

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If we assume that every Allied claim everyone was accurate(1 factual kill for 1 claim awarded) then we would have to make the Germans overstate their kill claims by more than 500%, in order to equal the top German ace to the top Allied ace. And even then, the overwhelming majority of spots taken in the aces list would still be taken by pilots of the 3rd Reich.

This is not actually true. I am not in any way endorsing the metric that you have proposed so dont strawman me here. However if we were to adopt that metric there would be about 750 German aces and there would be about 800 british and american aces each. Again, not endorsing it as an actual metric. But if you want to get all righteous about how deluded I am maybe bother to check the facts you are accusing me of ignoring.

And that is without the fact that the statistics service of the 3rd Reich actually claims less planes destroyed overall by all causes than the allied powers lost
in Europe.

Yes? I never said that they didn't? The Germans shot down a lot more planes then the allies. The allies weren't shooting fish in a barrel on the eastern front.
 
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amalric de g.

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According to the AAF Statistical Digest, in less than four years (December 1941- August 1945), the US Army Air Forces lost 14,903 pilots, aircrew and assorted personnel plus 13,873 airplanes — inside the continental United States. They were the result of 52,651 aircraft accidents (6,039 involving fatalities) in 45 months.

Think about those numbers. They average 1,170 aircraft accidents per month—- nearly 40 a day.

Experience Level:
Uncle Sam sent many of his sons to war with absolute minimums of training. Some fighter pilots entered combat in 1942 with less than one hour in their assigned aircraft.
The 357th Fighter Group (often known as The Yoxford Boys) went to England in late 1943 having trained on P-39s. The group never saw a Mustang until shortly before its first combat mission.

A high-time P-51 pilot had 30 hours in type. Many had fewer than five hours. Some had one hour.

With arrival of new aircraft, many combat units transitioned in combat. The attitude was, “They all have a stick and a throttle. Go fly `em.” When the famed 4th Fighter Group converted from P-47s to P-51s in February 1944, there was no time to stand down for an orderly transition. The Group commander, Col. Donald Blakeslee, said, “You can learn to fly `51s on the way to the target.

A future P-47 ace said, “I was sent to England to die.” He was not alone. Some fighter pilots tucked their wheels in the well on their first combat mission with one previous flight in the aircraft. Meanwhile, many bomber crews were still learning their trade: of Jimmy Doolittle’s 15 pilots on the April 1942 Tokyo raid, only five had won their wings before 1941. All but one of the 16 copilots were less than a year out of flight school.

http://www.wwiifoundation.org/students/wwii-aircraft-facts/

Very good training, indeed. It´s allways funny that some guys, bend the truth, if it doesn´t fit.

Lost airplanes during WW2 (including accidents):
US losses 95,000
UK/Common 42,260
China 2,468
Netherlands 81
Poland 398
France 892
SU 106,400

Total 247,499

Finnland 600
Italy 5,272
Japan 50,000 (I took the highest assumed number)
Germany 76,875

Total 132,747

Thats a loss ratio of 1,86.
 

ObssesedNuker

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The top 48 German pilots claimed 707 craft shot down in the battle of britain. Each of them claiming at least 5 craft shot down. Let's apply a 25% per your suggestion reduction and say it's really 530 kills. From RAF records we know the actual losses were 915. That means that 58% of the kills went to less then 1% of German pilots. And keep in mind we are also talking about only those who shot down 5 planes during the battle of britain. There were German aces who participated in the battle of Britain but didn't get up to 5 from BoB alone. They would also have this superior eyesight that you are talking about but I couldn't find a convenient tally for their claims in the Battle of Britain.

The other 98% of pilots would need to be claiming 2300 kills and only actually getting 385 in order to make these numbers add up. For the aces to be 75% accurate you would need everyone else to be 14% accurate. Plus there would be some unreported victories. Those would show up in the British loss statistics but wouldn't be correct claims, pushing that figure of 385 even lower. Basically it would mean that 98% of German pilots would need to be completely pants on head useless to leave enough kills for the aces claims to be anything other then bullshit.

That actually fits quite well. It is as I observed earlier, the top 10% of pilots on all sides were usually responsible for about 80% of the kills as an average. Combine that with the tactical disadvantages German fighter pilots were under during the Battle of Britain (such as only being able to effectively engage for 5 minutes before being forced to RTB because of fuel issues) and it's quite easy to see all but the very best German pilots struggling to get a decent proportion of actual kills.

This theory just doesn't pass the smell test. When you have a massive, massive disparity in the numbers claiming that this disparity didn't affect one quarter of the claims just doesn't make sense. And it's also flying straight in the face of everything we know about the Nazis.

That's because I was talking about specifically the claims of ace pilots vs the claims of veteran and green air crews. When one considers that aces constitute only a tiny minority of pilots (remember, less then 10%), once can easily see how air forces will easily run into over claiming. And a 300% general over claim rate is pretty standard (it's where the "divide-by-three" rule comes from) in that sense.
 
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keynes2.0

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That actually fits quite well. It is as I observed earlier, the top 10% of pilots on all sides were usually responsible for about 80% of the kills as an average.

The numbers I crunched showed that the top 1.5% were getting credit for over 50% of the kills according to your adjustment. So now let's look at the 8.5% that are runners up. That's something like 250 pilots. But if the top 10% scored 80% kills that means that the 8.5% runner ups only had a bit over 200 victories among 250 pilots. To get these numbers to add up you have to say that the top sub-ace performers were getting less then one kill. That means that something like 3% of the pilots would have all the victories, 20% had partial victories and everyone else was window dressing. It's just ridiculous. It would imply that 99% of kill claims by people who aren't aces are lies while the aces were 75% accurate.

And furthermore it requires a huge discontinuity in the data. You have to have this steady decline in the ace scores. Where there are fewer fives then fours (fours after your adjustment), fewer sixes then fives, fewer sevens then eights, etc. But to make these numbers work you need a huge jump in the graph where suddenly things go from four all the way to one with barely any threes or twos. That just doesn't happen with legit data unless there is some discontinuity in the function producing the data.

No, sorry, that explanation does not hold water. The aces exaggerated a hell of a lot more then you say. And keep in mind, I'm fudging things to make your numbers more plausible. You said they exaggerated by 20%-30%. I'm judging them against 75% accuracy which is to say they exaggerated 33% and that's still not enough to make the numbers add up.
 
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Orlunu

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That just doesn't happen with legit data unless there is some discontinuity in the function producing the data.

Like the fact that two poor pilots facing each other mostly ended up in both flying away, so you only got a three-kill guy if he was actually a good pilot who just happened to get bumped by one of the few enemy aces on one of his first contacts with the enemy? The air war was a whole load of people who couldn't hit a thing hiding a few people who killed most of what crossed their sights.
 

keynes2.0

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And how about the German pilots that were aces but didn't make ace during the battle of britain? They ran away and pissed their pants during the BoB but then suddenly they learned how to fight later? And it's totally ace or nothing. It's completely implausible for someone to be good enough for three victories but five victories was by far the most common after none or half. See after they get five they decide they have had enough and sightsee for the rest of the war. This totally makes sense.
 
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Orlunu

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And how about the German pilots that were aces but didn't make ace during the battle of britain? They ran away and pissed their pants during the BoB but then suddenly they learned how to fight later? And it's totally ace or nothing. It's completely implausible for someone to be good enough for three victories but five victories was by far the most common after none or half. See after they get five they decide they have had enough and sightsee for the rest of the war. This totally makes sense.

Well, that was lazy, so I'll be lazy too and reply in detail later, when I have more time.
 

keynes2.0

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I can't wait to see what convoluted kink in the data you will invent next to avoid admitting what you say just doesn't add up.
 
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Loke

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If memory serves - To become an Ace I understand as an US or German pilot u had to down 5 aircraft.

If stationed on the eastern front as a German pilot, you had to down alot more than 5 aircraft to become an ace.
 

Orlunu

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I can't wait to see what convoluted kink in the data you will invent next to avoid admitting what you say just doesn't add up.

And how about the German pilots that were aces but didn't make ace during the battle of britain? They ran away and pissed their pants during the BoB but then suddenly they learned how to fight later?

It's completely implausible for someone to be good enough for three victories but five victories was by far the most common after none or half. See after they get five they decide they have had enough and sightsee for the rest of the war. This totally makes sense.

Two points there. I'll address them in order. First one is a simple matter of false comparison.

BoB:
Germans flying hugely inferior planes
Germans fighting under severe fuel pressure
Germans being forced by high command to fly in at a significant altitude disadvantage
Allies have massive fore-warning and precise co-ordinates of attack, and plenty of time to set up
Allies have all of the AA
yadda yadda yadda

Later:
Germans flying superior planes
Germans have the fuel advantage
Germans normally have the altitude advantage
Germans normally have the intel advantage and time to set up
Germans have all of the AA
so on & so forth

How about the US Marines who dealt four the number of casualties they took attacking, say, Tinian, then took more than they dealt attacking Iwo Jima? They learned how to fight but then suddenly they ran away and pissed their pants later? 'cos, frankly, those battles are far more similar than the ones you're trying to compare.


For the second one, you are addressing a point someone else made and that I wasn't defending. His numbers are silly, that is true. The arguments you bought, however, was that there'd need to be a discontinuity in the function. As a discontinuity is not even unlikely, your argument didn't come close to proving his wrong. Being correct is no excuse for sloppy argumentation, and I was pointing out a flaw in your argumentation, not in your conclusion.
That does actually apply for the first of these arguments, too, but that was also incorrect in its own right, so I left a little explanation of what was wrong with it rather than just pointing out that it was completely irrelevant to what I'd said.



Sorry that took so long, I had a bath.
 

keynes2.0

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Two points there. I'll address them in order. First one is a simple matter of false comparison.

Okay, follow me cuz the logic is really complicated here. In order for it to be a false comparison it would need to be a comparison.

I find it hilarious how you guys keep coming back to this same argument. Oh he is saying nasty things about the Luftwaffe so he must be a fanboy. I'm talking statistics. Believe it or not people can actually talk about accuracy of historical data instead of being kneejerk apologists for their chosen side. You should try it sometime! Because you took a long bath and all you came back with was "Axis rulz, Allies droolz".
 

Orlunu

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Okay, follow me cuz the logic is really complicated here. In order for it to be a false comparison it would need to be a comparison.

I find it hilarious how you guys keep coming back to this same argument. Oh he is saying nasty things about the Luftwaffe so he must be a fanboy. I'm talking statistics. Believe it or not people can actually talk about accuracy of historical data instead of being kneejerk apologists for their chosen side. You should try it sometime! Because you took a long bath and all you came back with was "Axis rulz, Allies droolz".

And how about the German pilots that were aces but didn't make ace during the battle of britain? They ran away and pissed their pants during the BoB but then suddenly they learned how to fight later?
^^ This is not a comparison of how they did during the Battle of Britain and how they did later. No sir, no consideration of the similar and dissimilar features of two different things going on here.

I didn't post a single thing saying that the Axis were particularly good, that the Allies were particularly bad, or even that one was better than the other.

you are addressing a point someone else made and that I wasn't defending. ... Being correct is no excuse for sloppy argumentation, and I was pointing out a flaw in your argumentation, not in your conclusion.

I like the accusation of kneejerk reactions, considering.
 
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ObssesedNuker

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Germans flying hugely inferior planes

The Bf-109 wasn't really inferior to the Spitfire, but it was an equal. However, for the purposes of the British in the Battle of Britain, equal was enough since it was the first the Germans had encountered a fighter of roughly equal quality to the Bf-109 in large numbers. It had been superior to anything it met over Poland in 1939, and virtually all the fighters it encountered over France 1940, with the exception of the French D.520, which was encountered in minuscule numbers. The Spitfire of May and June of 1940 was equipped with a fixed pitch propeller which gimped it significantly in combat. German 109 ace and leading fighter tactician Werner Moelders tested a captured Spitfire I after the Battle of France and praised its handling characteristics, but stated "as a fighting aircraft, it is miserable." He was unpleasantly surprised by the upgraded Spitfires the Jagdwaffe ran into during the Battle of Britain only a month later, which were now equipped with a variable pitch propeller and were flying on 100 octane fuel. This was the first time the Luftwaffe's 109 pilots met an adversary in a plane that was their equal, and it led them to obsessive levels of worry, with every cloud hiding a lurking Spitfire.

Nevertheless, the German pilots still had the advantage of superior fighter tactics for most of the Battle, flying in the far superior four plane schwarm formation, compared to the rigid three plane "Vic" formations still drummed into the heads of new recruits by the RAF training establishment. Historian Stephen Bungay estimates that German 109 pilots, despite fighting the RAF on its home ground and directed by the advantage of radar, still scored a positive K/D ratio of around 1.2:1 (although the RAF fighters more than made up the difference against German bombers, allowing them an overall K/D of 1.8:1) Some RAF squadrons ditched the vic once they gained combat experience, however they still had to fish around for their own solutions, many of which were halfway stopgaps. It wasn't until early 1941 before Fighter Command finally officially adopted the schwarm as the "finger four."

After the Battle of Britain and their nasty brush with the Spitfire, the German 109 pilots went back to facing fighters with varying degrees of inferiority. The Red Air Force of 1941 could not match the Luftwaffe for quality in tactics or machines, while in the deserts of North Africa the newly arriving Bf 109F encountered the Hurricane and the P-40 in numbers, both of which it had a clear edge over. In the desert allied fighters were also tied to operations that placed them at a disadvantage, and German ace Hans Joachim Marseille scored many of his kills against Hurricanes and Warhawks caught at low altitude and laden for ground attack.

And then in the Summer of 1941, as Fighter Command's Spitfire Vs were conducting their sweeps over France, they started to encounter the FW 190A - the "butcher bird." The Focke Wulfe could not turn anywhere near as quickly as the Spitfire, but it was far faster, with incomparably superior roll at combat speeds allowing for rapid changes of direction. The margin of superiority was so vast the 190 quickly established a 5-1 kill ratio, and the season became known to the outclassed pilots of the RAF as the "Focke Wulf Summer," which would only end in July of 1942 with the hurried introduction of the Spitfire IX.

By then the tide was starting to turn against the Luftwaffe. The latest 109 variant, the "Gustav," was a disappointment after the superlative "Freidrich," while Allied aircraft were continually improving in quality. The Americans were starting to arrive, while perhaps just as dangerously the Red Air Force had recovered, and with its increasingly confident fighter regiments equipped with new Yakolevs and Lavochkins, was able to contest German air superiority. On all fronts the Germans now had to fight planes that matched or even exceeded their own in quality as well as quantity. The Germans would be on the back foot in the air for the rest of the war, and their attempt to change the game with the Me 262 came too late and in too small numbers to make an impact.
 
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