Since I'm doing some observer games for testing balance changes, I noticed a few AIs managing to reform their pagan faiths and got curious as to what they're likely to pick from the options. Here's what I found out.
Most of the natures have only a few religions that have any chance of choosing them, with the least likely being Peaceful, as only a Bon AI will ever pick it. Next after that is the reformer's personality traits, but only really on the natures and leadership. Most of the doctrine choices are completely random, aside from the religion specific doctrine which is very likely to be chosen no matter what. This is a more detailed breakdown:
Nature
The single most important factor in what they AI picks is what their base pagan religion was. In the majority of cases, they will pick one of the religions that fits with that particular religion, unless their personality seriously swings it in another direction. The two most common doctrines are warmongering and unyielding. Germanics (76%), Tengri (76%), and Aztecs (79%) usually picking warmongering, while Romuvas (76%) and Suomenuskos (76%) go for unyielding.
The others are a little more interesting. Slavics still prefer unyeilding (56%), but have a fair chance of picking cosmopolitan (28%) as well. Hellenics have an equal base chance of going for warmongering (33%) or cosmopolitan (33%), with a slightly reduced chance of picking proselytizing (27%). Zuns can go for warmongering (36%), proselytizing (29%), or dogmatic (29%). Africans have the largest selection, having high base chances for unyielding (31%), proselytizing (25%), dogmatic (25%), and cosmopolitan (16%).
Lastly we have Bons, who have far more modifiers than the other religions. They're the only ones that have a reasonable chance of picking peaceful (49%), everyone else has a less than 1% chance. Otherwise odds are they pick unyielding (49%). Unlike the others, they have almost no chance of picking something else.
For the non-Bons, the off natures chances are 0.3-0.8% for peaceful, 3-8% for warmongering, 4-8% for unyielding, 5-6% for proselytizing, 3-6% for dogmatic, and 2-4% for cosmopolitan. The one exception is Aztecs who've got a minuscule chance of picking unyielding, even lower than their chance of picking peaceful.
Personalities can have a significant effect on these chances, with the exception of peaceful. No personality traits will affect an AI's base chance to pick that. There are only a handful of traits that will affect things. Cynical being the most important, affecting the odds on all 5 natures. Zealous and possessed affect 4. Lunatic, wroth, craven, patient, kind, and gregarious all affect 2 natures, and with the exception of gregarious all increase one option and decrease another. Socializer, brave, cruel, and paranoid each only affect one.
If a ruler happens to have two of the right personality traits, that can dramatically shift the odds. For example, a Suomenusco or Romuva character would normally have a 76% chance of picking unrelenting and a 6% chance of picking proselytizing, if they happened to be zealous and gregarious, that changes to 4% and 74% instead. A craven Germanic drops from 76% for warmongering to 58%, and their chance to pick unyielding rises from 8% to 29%.
Here's a detailed breakdown of the factors, note that each personality will further multiply the chance by 5 or divide by 10, it isn't just a question of if you have one or not:
Doctrine
This one is pretty boring. Seven of the eighteen universal doctrines have no modifiers on them at all. The only personality factors are to make otherwise unlikely doctrines have normal chances to be picked. None of the generic options ever has more than a half again chance of being picked as any other doctrine.
Leadership
Once again, this is mainly determined by religion. Most of the time religions have a 77% chance of picking their predefined leadership option, with an equal chance of each of the other options. Zuns and tengri are less likely than normal to pick autonomous, leaving them with 83% / 8% / 8% / 0.2%.
The only thing that personality can affect is the AI's chance of picking autonomous, which are mostly about reducing the odds they pick that option. Characters rapidly become less likely to pick it the more of these traits they have: zealous, luntic, and possessed. Just one of them makes the Bon and Africans equally likely to pick any of the leadership types, two and their normally preferred autonomous only has a 3% chance of being taken. Reformers are more likely to pick autonomous if they're cynical. However, that still can't make it more thank half as likely as their default option (59% / 29% / 6% / 6%).
Conclusion
I think I might mod some of these to make them more interesting and make the AI more likely to pick some of the unlikely options. There's very little at play and most things are going to be determined by the religion or pure random chance. I've also been working on this post for over three hours and need to go to bed.
Most of the natures have only a few religions that have any chance of choosing them, with the least likely being Peaceful, as only a Bon AI will ever pick it. Next after that is the reformer's personality traits, but only really on the natures and leadership. Most of the doctrine choices are completely random, aside from the religion specific doctrine which is very likely to be chosen no matter what. This is a more detailed breakdown:
Nature
The single most important factor in what they AI picks is what their base pagan religion was. In the majority of cases, they will pick one of the religions that fits with that particular religion, unless their personality seriously swings it in another direction. The two most common doctrines are warmongering and unyielding. Germanics (76%), Tengri (76%), and Aztecs (79%) usually picking warmongering, while Romuvas (76%) and Suomenuskos (76%) go for unyielding.
The others are a little more interesting. Slavics still prefer unyeilding (56%), but have a fair chance of picking cosmopolitan (28%) as well. Hellenics have an equal base chance of going for warmongering (33%) or cosmopolitan (33%), with a slightly reduced chance of picking proselytizing (27%). Zuns can go for warmongering (36%), proselytizing (29%), or dogmatic (29%). Africans have the largest selection, having high base chances for unyielding (31%), proselytizing (25%), dogmatic (25%), and cosmopolitan (16%).
Lastly we have Bons, who have far more modifiers than the other religions. They're the only ones that have a reasonable chance of picking peaceful (49%), everyone else has a less than 1% chance. Otherwise odds are they pick unyielding (49%). Unlike the others, they have almost no chance of picking something else.
For the non-Bons, the off natures chances are 0.3-0.8% for peaceful, 3-8% for warmongering, 4-8% for unyielding, 5-6% for proselytizing, 3-6% for dogmatic, and 2-4% for cosmopolitan. The one exception is Aztecs who've got a minuscule chance of picking unyielding, even lower than their chance of picking peaceful.
Personalities can have a significant effect on these chances, with the exception of peaceful. No personality traits will affect an AI's base chance to pick that. There are only a handful of traits that will affect things. Cynical being the most important, affecting the odds on all 5 natures. Zealous and possessed affect 4. Lunatic, wroth, craven, patient, kind, and gregarious all affect 2 natures, and with the exception of gregarious all increase one option and decrease another. Socializer, brave, cruel, and paranoid each only affect one.
If a ruler happens to have two of the right personality traits, that can dramatically shift the odds. For example, a Suomenusco or Romuva character would normally have a 76% chance of picking unrelenting and a 6% chance of picking proselytizing, if they happened to be zealous and gregarious, that changes to 4% and 74% instead. A craven Germanic drops from 76% for warmongering to 58%, and their chance to pick unyielding rises from 8% to 29%.
Here's a detailed breakdown of the factors, note that each personality will further multiply the chance by 5 or divide by 10, it isn't just a question of if you have one or not:
- Peaceful:
- Bons base factor 100
- Everyone else base factor 1
- No personality modifiers
- Bons base factor 100
- Warmongering:
- Germanic, Hellenic, Tengri, Aztec, or Zunist base factor 100
- Bons base factor 0.1
- Everyone else base factor 10
- Zealous, lunatic, possessed, and wroth x5
- Craven, patient, and cynical /10
- Unyielding
- Romuva, Slavic, Suomenusko, African, and Bon base factor 100
- Aztec base factor 0.1
- Everyone else base factor 10
- Craven, patient, and cynical x5
- Zealous, lunatic, possessed /10
- Proselytizing
- Zunist, Hellenic, and Africans base factor 80.
- Bons base factor of 0.08.
- Everyone else base factor of 8.
- Zealous, gregarious, and socializer x5
- Wroth, possessed, brave, and cynical /10
- Dogmatic
- Zunist and Africans base factor 80
- Bons base factor 0.08
- Everyone else base factor 8
- Possessed and cruel x5
- Kind and cynical /10
- Cosmopolitan
- African and Slavic base factor 50
- Hellenic base factor 100
- Everyone else base factor 5
- Gregarious, kind, cynical x5
- Paranoid and zealous /10
Doctrine
This one is pretty boring. Seven of the eighteen universal doctrines have no modifiers on them at all. The only personality factors are to make otherwise unlikely doctrines have normal chances to be picked. None of the generic options ever has more than a half again chance of being picked as any other doctrine.
- Divine Marriage is a tenth as likely to be picked unless Zun, but their unique doctrine already covers that.
- Syncretism is half as likely to be picked by Aztecs, Romuvas, and Suomenuskos.
- Astrology is very unlikely to be taken by Bons, Tengri, or Suomenuskos.
- Agnatic clans is very unlikely to be picked by women and a tenth as likely if the ruler's heir is female.
- Equality will rarely be picked except by reformers with the just trait or ambitious women.
- Enatic clans is extremely unlikely except if the reformer is a women who's either a lunatic, possessed, or ambitious, but is otherwise equally likely as all the other doctrines.
- Bloodthristy Gods is a tenth as likely if the reformer isn't cruel or an impaler.
- Daring has a half again chance as normal if the reformer is Germanic or Romuva, in the first case if the ruler had the unlikely event happen where they did not pick the Germanic unique doctrine.
- Seafaring outright cannot be picked by a reformer who doesn't have a coastal demesne province, less likely for nomadic reformers, and again Germanics and Aztecs have a half again chance of picking it if they didn't take their unique doctrines.
- Unrelenting and animism have the same half again chance for Aztecs and Tengri.
Leadership
Once again, this is mainly determined by religion. Most of the time religions have a 77% chance of picking their predefined leadership option, with an equal chance of each of the other options. Zuns and tengri are less likely than normal to pick autonomous, leaving them with 83% / 8% / 8% / 0.2%.
The only thing that personality can affect is the AI's chance of picking autonomous, which are mostly about reducing the odds they pick that option. Characters rapidly become less likely to pick it the more of these traits they have: zealous, luntic, and possessed. Just one of them makes the Bon and Africans equally likely to pick any of the leadership types, two and their normally preferred autonomous only has a 3% chance of being taken. Reformers are more likely to pick autonomous if they're cynical. However, that still can't make it more thank half as likely as their default option (59% / 29% / 6% / 6%).
- Temporal
- Germanic and Aztec base factor 50
- Everyone else 5
- Hierocratic
- Tengri and Zunist base factor 50
- Everyone else 5
- Autocephalous
- Suomenusko, Slavic, Romuva, and Hellenic base factor 50
- Everyone else 5
- Autonomous
- Bon and African base factor 50
- Zun and Tengri base factor 0.5
- Everyone else 5
- Cynical x5
- Zealous, lunatic, possessed /10
Conclusion
I think I might mod some of these to make them more interesting and make the AI more likely to pick some of the unlikely options. There's very little at play and most things are going to be determined by the religion or pure random chance. I've also been working on this post for over three hours and need to go to bed.
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