AI Mamluks are scared of war bug

[LamentP]

In my recent game as Tunis, I may have accidentally cheesed one of the most important wars.

I had left the mamluks alone for the first 100 years, but I finally felt strong enough to take them on since the Ottomans had brought them to their knees. I declared war on them, aiming to claim the Mediterranean coast and Cyprus. All of a sudden, despite outnumbering me and not being in any other wars, they send all of their troops to the other side of Constantinople. Then they just waited. And waited. And did nothing for the remainder of the war except sit in the ottoman Balkans. I sent a few galleys to block the straight, then took over all of their land.

Hell, they were even making more troops, and sending them all up to go wait with the rest. So at times, I would move the galleys, they'd cross the straight to join their friends, and I'd reblock the straight. I don't know what they were thinking, but I imagine they were either planning to go the long way around to morocco, or attack sicily? But if so, why didn't they get military access first? They never even left the Balkans the entire war.

The bug is even extremely consistent. I attached the save game. (1) Send the mercenaries in morocco to sirt. (2) Attach the 15 troops in sirt to ships. (3) Move the ships to cyprus (4) When they arrive, declare war. (5) Move the troops on the ships to cyprus. That's all it takes - you don't even have to touch anything else. Without fail the Mamluks AI will start moving all of their troops into the balkans.

Curious what you guys think is happening here.

 

[Zaddy]

Sounds about right. The AI's "grand strategy" is to basically abuse military access to avoid your troops and make a beeline for your forts. They avoid engaging at all costs unless they have overwhelming superiority and will actively run from your forces in all other cases. It looks like they couldn't find some silly way to abuse MA to go siege your land so they decided to just run away and hide.

Welcome to Europa in 2020.

 

[Sidolowka]

Sounds about right. The AI's "grand strategy" is to basically abuse military access to avoid your troops and make a beeline for your forts. They avoid engaging at all costs unless they have overwhelming superiority and will actively run from your forces in all other cases.

Everyone gangsta till Ming is sieging Cairo.

 

[RMS Oceanic]

I suspect the Military Access the Mamluks were using shifted abruptly for some reason and they derped out because of how far they now were from the fighting

 

[Shiny Dog]

I'm not sure if the AI "tactical" weight (what they use to determine if they're actually going to fight you, and the EU4 one is absolutely broken) is determined by personality, but the Mamluks' rulers always have an "Administrator" personality, and I mean ALWAYS.
Administrator rulers are less likely to start wars, so perhaps they're supposed to be much more careful.

 

[Xdevo]

I'm not sure if the AI "tactical" weight (what they use to determine if they're actually going to fight you, and the EU4 one is absolutely broken) is determined by personality, but the Mamluks' rulers always have an "Administrator" personality, and I mean ALWAYS.
Administrator rulers are less likely to start wars, so perhaps they're supposed to be much more careful.

The Mamluk government type guarantees +2 Admin points, which places a lot of weight in favor of administrative rules as well (as far as I know this is how the personality system works).

 

[Shiny Dog]

The Mamluk government type guarantees +2 Admin points, which places a lot of weight in favor of administrative rules as well (as far as I know this is how the personality system works).

Oh no, it's worse than that.

ai_capitalist = {
    chance = {
        factor = 100
...
        modifier = {
            factor = 100
            tag = MAM
            luck = no
            }
...
    }
    icon = 2
}

*Disclaimer*
This is from 1.25 since I haven't updated in two years, but I don't imagine they changed it.