I'm not going to claim I understand the rules of forts at all, but just based on playing lots of games and trial and error I don't know why you'd expect that fort to block anything. From your territory there are quite a few fort combinations I'd expect to do something such as:
1) Hoya and Braunshweig, Cassel or Thüringen should stop movement to Luneburg from west to east
2) Braunshweig and Hessen or Nassau should stop movement to Thüringen from west to east
3) Thüringen and Hessen or Nassau should stop people moving to Braunshweig from south the north
etc. etc.
...and depending on the military access of the war participants I wouldn't guarantee any of these either. Best off deleting your forts in such an awkwardly shaped empire.
That said, this obviously doesn't help in clarifying the rules at all. And I could have picked any number of posts in this thread and posted a similar thing - nothing personal at all. People should just stop expecting single forts to do anything. [Fort - province - province - fort]^n along your border in a nation at least 2 provinces deep is the way to use forts without getting bajanxed by mystery rules. Expect this and only this to work and your fort headaches will disappear!
I included a savegame that will allow you to see what occurs. It's the best one with this problem that I've ever been able to capture. The AI will walk to siege the fort in Braunschweig from the north. If you move to attack them while they are sieging, they will be able to move to Cassel or Thuringen -- DIRECTLY THROUGH THE FORT.
This is most definitely (as was the case with the Mazandaran savegame I posted earlier) caused by the AI being able to move through forts using the 'shortcut' rule. Forts in narrow access points do NOT block the AI from moving through them if the AI can take a much longer path to get to that same province. That's the problem and it's significant since it makes chokepoints LESS useful than placing forts away from chokepoints (mountain passes, straits, etc.). That's nonsensical.
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