Wouldn't the general consistency at which the AI gets bogged down due to fort expenses be a sign that the fort expenses are too high, though? Players are deleting them in favor of spending that money on more useful things, and the AI is literally dying due to it, so that's generally indicative of such a problem, I'd imagine.
Yes, Johan/Wiz could certainly change the design. IDD that fort maintenance feels rather risky to me and it's difficult to not overdo it in MP. On the other hand, the difficulty can be interpreted as depth in gameplay. Nonetheless, if you're going to have any luck with design changes, Johan is the person you need to convince.
I'm fairly sure it would be impossible to stage a naval invasion of a coastal fort before a monthly tick could recover some garrison.
Sure, it would still be severely understrength though with associated implications. The current solution may be too generous, but it was quick without tacking on additional exceptions. It's especially nice in AI code for the AI to be able to ignore maintenance of a specific fort altogether as it makes the problem vastly more simple.
Giving the AI freebies on an over-priced stalling mechanic seems like the last place you'd want to give the AI freebies to make the game more entertaining. If you want the game to be more challenging/engaging, extra siege times is probably not the best path.
Again, this is more of a game design question. I basically share your sentiment, but then again I've always been the conqueror type playing the game (EU2+) at almost perpetual war. Late game fort balance may be an entirely different beast, referring to the multiple threads on the excitement of sieging a level 8 fort.
Wouldn't it make more sense to set a maximum amount of money the AI is allowed to spend on fort maitenence (10-20% of total expenses) and have them auto-disband forts if they go over that limit? Or just give them an automatic -20% reduced fort maitenence?
I could write a long explanation but you will have to trust me when I say simple solutions have been tried. (The current AI is also indeed simple but a fair bit more complex than what you describe here.) For a start, consider that country income is not a fixed number but often varies from month to month.