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Here is my hypothesis for how AI decides to manual bankrupt:

If peacetime, and current income is higher than all unavoidable expenses (interest, state maintenance, mothballed fort cost), then bankrupt.

The problem is often occupation tanks current income. So the day after peacing put the country looks at its tanked income and immediately kills itself.

Doesn't help that the AI still puts up idiotic institution spread edicts for no reason.
Are you basing this off of tests, or is this a guess made by the logic that seems reasonable?
 
The funny part is there's no negative modifier for an AI to honor a CTA while bankrupt. I accidentally bankrupted Spain in my game, I was planning to kill one of their guarantees. The next day they bankrupt and all of a sudden they are +117 reasons to honor a CTA due to no loans and hating me. Smart.

But their army is crap and rebuilding it over and over again causes them to take loans. And they might loose more land etc.
 
But their army is crap and rebuilding it over and over again causes them to take loans. And they might loose more land etc.
I was being sarcastic with the "smart" comment. It's very stupid that there's no negative reasons to join a call to arms while bankrupt. That's a good way to enter a debt spiral. It's pretty annoying for a player too sometimes, if you just want to core some land and attack one of their ally's.
 
Life is tough for the mid size countries.

Like you said Ming, Ottomans, France, and England can all take a hit but those with constant rebel problems like Hungary, Poland, Hordes can't take a hit.
 
Yeah, previous system was much better. It allowed to use OPMs and natives as piggy-bank, but at least they had that money so did not go bankrupt. I do not know how those 5 loans are calculated now, but countries with significant development are not able to repay such huge loans.
As Byzantium I got 800 from Ottomans, fortunatelly they earn significant money from trade (still own COT or two), disbanded something and managed not to sink after first war (but I fully expect them to bankrupt after the following war).

In 1356 mod there is huge Yuan, with over 1000 development. After 1st war against some neighbouring horde they had to pay 2000 ducats of reparations and immediately went bankrupt.
Solving preceived "exploit" devs made game worse again.

Why not both?

You can take all their cash on hand up to a maximum of five loans (on more likely how it would be phrased in the game: you can take up to 25 war score of cash on hand with each war score worth 1/5 of a loan). Not hard to have two caps and take the min.
 
Life is tough for the mid size countries.

Like you said Ming, Ottomans, France, and England can all take a hit but those with constant rebel problems like Hungary, Poland, Hordes can't take a hit.

I always see Poland, Lithuania, Hungary and Russia running on 500+ debt when the age of Reformation hits. Sometimes they get more debt earlier, sometimes later, but they are always indebt.

Oirat is another case of a country who just cannot exist without being indebt.
 
Why not both?

You can take all their cash on hand up to a maximum of five loans (on more likely how it would be phrased in the game: you can take up to 25 war score of cash on hand with each war score worth 1/5 of a loan). Not hard to have two caps and take the min.

What I meant is that sometimes you can take sth like 15 ducats for 25 warscore, while they have 100+ ducats stored. And frankly in such case I say, thank you, I prefer to cancel rival for 5 prestige (IIRC), take province etc.